A Monte Carlo Simulation

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Presentation transcript:

A Monte Carlo Simulation Genesys Model A Monte Carlo Simulation

Random Variables Water Conditions Load (temperature) Thermal FOR Wind

Genesys Dispatch Monthly Window (user specified) Day Hour

Monthly Dispatch Hydro regulator determines available hydro Hydro divided into blocks (URC, etc.) Dispatch order of hydro blocks wrt thermal resources based on user input prices

Window Dispatch Determines if system used flexibility in hourly dispatch from last window Forecasts how much hydro will use in next window (including flex) and determines the order the discretionary hydro will have in the dispatch compared to other resources

Day Dispatch Forecasts amount of hydro that will be needed in the next day Shapes the day’s hydro energy in to hours based on the load shape, sustained peaking limits, and off peak minimums

Hourly Dispatch Amount of hydro available comes from the day dispatch hourly shaping logic Order of hydro in the dispatch (i.e. shadow price) comes from the window dispatch Resources and loads specified by node Resources meet within node loads first Economic transactions done between nodes, taking into account transmission

Flexibility 1) Running monthly ave. hydro dispatch 2) Monthly hydro down to firm rights If 1) exceeded 2) in the previous window, the difference is the amount of flexibility Amount of flex can not exceed user input As long as the system is flexing, the hydro shadow price is at the flex hydro price

Flexibility Example February 1929 Monthly Hydro Energy to Firm Rights = 11327 MWa Window Running Average Hydro Dispatched Flex Amount 1 11406 MWa 3792 MWh 2 11158 MWa 0 MWh 3 11648 MWa 46224 MWh 4 11481 MWa 36960 MWh . 7 11271 MWa 0 MWh At the end of the month the hydro regulator is rerun and the flex amount is set back to zero. The regulator made up 256 MWa of flex at the end of this month.

Off-Peak Purchase Logic User may specify an amount and the hours of availability of off-peak purchases If the system is forecasted to need flex in the next window, the off-peak purchases will be made available to the hourly dispatch. Otherwise, they are not available.