NFB Conference 2013: Construction Forecasts DR. NOBLE FRANCIS Economics Director.

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Presentation transcript:

NFB Conference 2013: Construction Forecasts DR. NOBLE FRANCIS Economics Director

UK ECONOMY

Economic Recovery UK GDP is recovering but what about real wages? Interest rates to stay low Inflation above target Bank of England clearly focused on growth

OPPORTUNITIES GOING FORWARD IN CONSTRUCTION

£110 billion of work Opportunities going forward, primarily in London & South East Near-term growth due to private housing & infrastructure Medium-term recovery also from growth in commercial Total Construction

Q3 private housing output 12% higher than a year ago Govt policy boosts: Funding for Lending FirstBuy Help to Buy What happens when the policies finish? Private Housing

Real wages and consumer spending expected to boost sector Green Deal and ECO are not offsetting the end of CERT & holding back growth Private Housing RM&I

On the negative side, government spending cuts On the positive side, Green Deal could make more of an impact in the public sector Public Housing RM&I

Bricks in September: Production 14% higher than a year ago Stocks 34% lower than a year ago Building contractors in Q3: 34% reported difficulty recruiting bricklayers 32% reported difficulty recruiting plasterers Shortages?

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