Situation in March 2012 from the Monthly Hydrological Summary

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Presentation transcript:

What’s on the horizon: future developments in UK national and regional M&EW

Situation in March 2012 from the Monthly Hydrological Summary National Hydrological Monitoring Programme December 1988 – Present Places events in a historical context Uses data holdings of the National River Flow Archive and National Groundwater Level Archive Focuses on rainfall, river flows, groundwater levels and reservoir stocks. Audience includes: scientists, media, policy makers, water companies, general public Available for free at http://www.ceh.ac.uk/data/nrfa/nhmp Situation in March 2012 from the Monthly Hydrological Summary

Hydrological Outlooks Started summer 2013 Uses Met Office, NRFA, NGLA data as current conditions Wide range of modelling tools used to project flows and groundwater levels over 1 to 3 months (and beyond) Including use of Met Office Ensemble Available for free at: http://www.hydoutuk.net/

What no drought indicators….? A series of drought indicators used in previous research Rank 18-month 24-month Years Runoff (mm) 1 1935 179.45 248.12 2 1903 204.68 1992 265 3 214.27 265.68 4 1891 216.45 1945 273.65 5 1922 224.22 302.76 6 227.17 1998 305.4 7 1906 238.52 308.87 8 2012 238.78 319.46 9 246.9 1923 328.04 10 1949 250.63 2006 336.09 Ranked n-month runoff deficiencies Regional Deficiency Index Standardized Precipitation Index Drought Severity Index

Hydrological (river flow, groundwater) What is a drought? (Yes, this is the “What is a drought” slide....) Images from the 2010 – 2012 Drought © Environment Agency Agricultural (soil moisture) Environmental © Guardian Meteorological © United Utilities Hydrological (river flow, groundwater) Water Resources

Standardised Indicators: not universal, but not apples and pears

Drought Indicators SPI3 SPI6 SPI12 SSI (streamflow) SGI (groundwater) Folland et al. HESS Discussions. 2015

Drought Indicators for the UK: the drought portal Launch: March 2015 Gridded SPI for UK at 1km and 5km resolution Monthly, 1961 – 2012 Tool for mapping and time series visualisation Free download SPI data (with DOI) on the portal

Towards high-res drought M&EW? Aims of the portal: High-res monitoring of a wide range of drought indicators Putting current conditions in historical perspective Next developments: 5km Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) – May 2015 Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) for 120 rivers – late summer 2015 Earlier data from pre-1961 (Historic Droughts project) Q: how often will the portal be updated? A: monthly, from later in 2015

Potential for integrating remote sensing products Future developments Soil Moisture: COSMOS Network Potential for integrating remote sensing products

What is the portal for....? Please tell us! We aim to provide regional and local-scale info that is relevant to a wide range of end uses. But what else should we have in a drought portal? What space and timescales are useful to you? What about impacts....?