Problem Analysis How to Identify the Focal Problem

Project defined…. An intervention to create positive change in an existing situation

What is a Problem Negative condition Specific and clear situation (can not be generic) which hinders/prevents the achievement/realization of desired positive change Owned by a specific group/stakeholder (whose problem is it?)

Understanding the Problem Need to avoid: Proceeding with limited information Diagnosis without participation Jumping to conclusions Instant prescriptions and solutions We should: Maximize participation and ownership of the analysis Move to a common acceptance of the problem

Problem Analysis Problems Analysis visually represents the causes and effects of existing problems in the project area, in the form of a Problem Tree. It clarifies the relationships among the identified problems.

Problem Tree Analysis - What A diagnostic tool to Analyse the existing situation surrounding a given problem context Identify major problems associated with the stated negative condition Recognize cause-effect relationships in a simple, transparent way that is easy for any layperson to follow

Problem Tree Analysis - How Six Steps – Negative conditions, specific and clear Decide on starter (focal or core) problem and place in center Place problems that are direct causes under starter, 1 card per problem Repeat – add direct causes for previous level of problems, until root problem is reached Above starter problem place direct effects Repeat – adding direct effects for previous level Refine - Analyze cause-effect relationships, move cards around as needed

Examples in Stating Problems Rural road maintenance by district road authorities does not meet national quality standards better than Poor quality of road maintenance Rural people do not have access to financial services better than Lack of bank branches in rural areas Travel in rural areas of the district is time-consuming, uncomfortable, and expensive better than Poor people do not use roads

Developing a Problem Tree Effects of the Focal Problem Focal/Starter/Core problem Identify a focal problem Place the direct effects above Place the causes below Extend as far as possible Causes of the Focal Problem

How to Build the Problem Tree Starter Problem Public transport unreliable & unsafe WHY? Looking from the top, down, there could be many paths of causes

How to Build the Problem Tree Public transport unreliable & unsafe Frequent delays WHY? Start by tracing one problem path down to its causes

How to Build the Problem Tree Public transport unreliable & unsafe Frequent delays Bus fleet in poor condition Problem could have different contributory causes WHY?

Other reasons why? Work at lower levels to further refine cause-effect Public transport unreliable & unsafe Other reasons why? Frequent delays Work at lower levels to further refine cause-effect links Bus fleet in poor condition Poor bus maintenance Buses are old Mechanics poorly skilled in maintenance Lack of spare parts No investment in new buses

Public transport unreliable & unsafe Demand for SBC services declining (less people use bus) And so what? Effects Public transport unreliable & unsafe Frequent bus accidents Frequent delays Roads in poor condition Bus fleet in poor condition Poor bus maintenance Buses are old Mechanics poorly skilled in maintenance Lack of spare parts No investment in new buses

SBC public transport service is unreliable and unsafe Problem Tree: Public Transport Increased traffic congestion Increased pollution Increased per capita transport costs Drastic increase of private cars Demand for SBC services declining Development (Focal/Core/Starter) Problem SBC public transport service is unreliable and unsafe Frequent delays Frequent bus accidents Roads in poor condition SBC – Safari Bus Company Frequent break-down of buses Drivers have poor driving skills Inadequate traffic management Small budget for maintenance Bus fleet is in poor condition No minimum driving skills required Policy overwhelmed with increased traffic City Council different priorities Poor bus maintenance Buses are old Lack of spare parts Poorly skilled bus mechanics No investment budget Import restrictions No skills training and testing SBC runs operating loss Fares only cover 75% of operating budget

Problem Tree Analysis - Avoid “Lack of” problems – ex. funds. Specify what problems arise because of lack of funds Too general – ex. corruption. Specify systems and conditions that divert funds Solutions phrased as problems – ex. no training. Specify negative condition only Grouping cause and effect together – only one level per problem Indirect cause and effect linkages – only close and direct linkages Anticipating future problems – only current problems

1. “Lack of” problems 2. Too general Lack of rational policy and poor institutional framework Lack of intermodal strategic urban transport planning 2. Too general Financing gap Deteriorated assets Declining urban environment and living conditions

3. Solutions phrased as problems Poor planning, absence of urban renewal strategy, sector master plans and supporting legislations 4. Grouping cause and effect together Flooding, water borne diseases, restricted mobility, low productivity and increase in urban poverty Environmental degradation, ground water depletion and water contamination Poor urban infrastructure and services

5. Indirect cause and effect linkages Old and inadequate infrastructure Reduced economic growth Poor sector governance Unwillingness of government to firmly enforce standards and tariffs Insufficient urban services coverage Inadequate urban planning, integrated transport system development and market logistics facilities Strong and rapid urbanization with high congestion of road network Lack of rational policy and poor institutional framework 6. Anticipating Future Problems Budget cuts for Road maintenance in 2017

Using Cards Write your statement on a card Write only one idea on a card Express your statement in a concise sentence using no more then 3 lines Make your sentence specific. Stick to the facts and avoid abstractions and generalizations

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