AP Human Geography Population and Migration Unit Malthus and Boserup Ester Boserup Thomas Malthus AP Human Geography Population and Migration Unit

Malthus Malthus believed that there was a finite optimum population in relation to food supply and that an increase beyond that point would lead to a decline in living standards and to war, famine and disease. An increase in the population above the optimum limit would therefore lead to war, famine and disease.

A PESSIMISTIC approach Thomas Malthus (1798) proposed his work during the early stages of the industrial revolution when inadequate food and clothing were common features in England. His argument was that population increases (geometrically) or at an exponential rate if unchecked i.e. 1-2-4-8-16-32 etc Food supply at best increases at an arithmetic rate i.e.1-2-3-4-5-6 etc

Thomas Malthus (aka Tommy Malt) English economist Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798 Population Geometric/Exponential growth Food supply Arithmetic growth Population Growth Food Growth Today 1 person 1 unit T + 25 2 persons 2 units T + 50 4 persons 3 units T + 75 8 persons 4 units T + 100 16 persons 5 units

A PESSIMISTIC approach Malthus suggested that a rise in population, however small, would mean that eventually population growth exceeded increases in food supply and that yields from a given field could not go on increasing forever and that the land available is finite. He believed the population-resource balance was maintained by various ‘checks’:

A PESSIMISTIC approach Negative (preventative) checks are methods of limiting population growth: e.g. celibacy, delaying marriage which lower fertility rates He noted that there was a correlation between wheat prices and marriage rates i.e. wheat price increases marriage rates decrease (C18th) Positive checks (decrease in population size due to): famine, war, diseases i.e. anything which increases mortality and decreases life expectancy. Carrying capacities can relate to ecosystems and humans. Rapid economic growth can impede economic development by exacerbating social and economic problems.

Malthus on population: “Instead of recommending cleanliness to the poor, we should encourage contrary habits. In our towns we should make the streets narrower, crowd more people into the houses, and court the return of the plague. In the country we should build our villages near stagnant pools, and particularly encourage settlements in all marshy and unwholesome situations. But above all, we should reprobate specific remedies for ravaging diseases: and those benevolent, but much mistaken men, who have thought they were doing a service to mankind by projecting schemes for the total extirpation of particular disorders. If by these and similar means the annual mortality were increased ... we might probably every one of us marry at the age of puberty and yet few be absolutely starved.”

How was Malthus right? Population has been rising quickly Limited use of contraceptives (DTM stages 2 and early 3) Population has outgrown food Farm land to urban land, environmental degradation, life-supporting crops to cash crops, climate changes decrease food production Neo-Malthusians Supporters of Malthusian theory today. Concern today is not just food but air, energy, water, and space.

How was Malthus wrong? Population hasn’t grown exponentially Expanded use of contraceptives Demographic Transition Model stages 4 and 5 Political, economic, cultural decisions that limit growth Food supply grew faster than predicted New technologies made farmers far more efficient (mechanization, chemicals, irrigation, etc.) Green Revolution (genetically modified, improved seeds Food preservation and distribution Highways, refrigeration, containerization

An OPTIMISTIC approach Ester Boserup (1965) suggested that an increase in population would stimulate technologists to increase food production. It followed that a rise in population will increase demand for food and therefore act as an incentive to modify technology to produce more food. In other words, “Necessity is the mother of invention”. As population increases agriculture moves into higher stages of intensity with new methods.

An OPTIMISTIC approach Followers of Boserup argue that food production is much more optimistic than that of a Malthusian, as she claims that food supplies will stay ahead of population growth. Innovations such as the ‘Green Revolution’ introduced high-yield seeds to LDCs who witnessed increased yields from these processes allowing more people to be fed.

Limitations of Boserups theory Based on closed communities, which apart from the globe, is not the case as migration occurs. Therefore difficult to test these ideas as migration occurs in areas of over-population to relieve population pressure, which according to Boserups’s theory leads to technological innovation. Also Over-population can lead to unsustainable farming practices which may degrade the land e.g. desertification in the Sahel.