What We Have Studied Sustainability Ecological Footprint Tragedy of the Commons Triple Bottom Line Sustainable Development Environmental Value Systems World Views/Philosophies Frontier Worldview Preservationist Anthropocentric Technocentric Deep Ecology Ecocentric

What We Have Studied Ecosystem Services/Natural Capital Concept of “overshoot” Renewable, nonrenewable, and potentially renewable resources Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Human Population Dynamics Chapter 8

AP College Board Objectives (10 – 15%) 1. Human Population dynamics – historical population sizes; distribution; fertility rates; growth rates and doubling times; demographic transition; age-structure diagrams 2. Population size – Strategies for sustainability; cases studies; national policies 3. Impacts of population growth – hunger; disease; economic effects; resource use; habitat destruction Although several species may share a habitat they each have their own niche. A niche is a very narrow range where a species fits within a habitat.

Population Basics Population: all the individuals of a species that live together in an area Density: measurement of population per unit area or unit volume Formula: Dp= N S Population Density = # of individuals unit of space Although several species may share a habitat they each have their own niche. A niche is a very narrow range where a species fits within a habitat.

Factors that Affect Density Density-independent factors- Abiotic factors in the environment that affect populations regardless of their density   Ex. temperature storms habitat destruction drought

Factors that Affect Density Density-dependent factors- Biotic factors in the environment that have an increasing effect as population size increases   Ex. disease competition parasites

Population Density and Distribution

How is Population Data Gathered? Natural Increase Immigration and Emigration Births minus Deaths 1,345 – 645= 700 Age structure Diagrams Demography: A social science that applies the principles of population ecology to the study of statistical change in human populations

Population Basics b. Replacement level fertility Define the following vocabulary a. Total fertility rate b. Replacement level fertility c. Infant mortality rate d. Doubling time e. Mortality f. Natality g. Life expectancy h. Immigration i. Emigration

Factors That Affect Future Population Growth Immigration + + - Population Mortality Natality - Emigration

Human Population Growth https://www. populationeducation Hyperlink to World Population Video

Human Population Growth

Our World at 7 Billion To travel 7 billion miles in your car you’d need to make 29, 000 trips to the Moon! Global population grows by over 80 million people each year. We add 2.6 people to the planet every second Population growth momentum: The continued growth of a population after fertility rates have declined, as a result of a population's young age structure

http://www.census.gov/popclock/

How Did We Get to 7 Billion So Fast??? http://www.npr.org/2011/10/31/141816460/visualizing-how-a-population-grows-to-7-billion?_sm_au_=iVVRHJkHQnPNnp16  

Almost 1 in 5 people in the world are Chinese…More than 1 of every 6 lives in India. FIGURE 8.7

TABLE 8.2

Predicting world Population Growth FIGURE 8.8

Is Population Growth a Problem? FIGURE 8.5

Human Population Growth Thomas Malthus British economist (1766-1834) Argued that unless population growth were controlled by laws or other social structures the number of people would eventually out grow the available food supply.

An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798) “If society did not limit births then rising death rates would reduce the population through war, disease, and starvation.”

Human Population Growth Paul Ehrlich Biologist at Stanford University “neo-Malthusians” The Population Bomb (1968) Predicted that population growth would unleash famine and conflict that would consume civilization by the end of the 20th century FIGURE 8.5b

Paul Ehrlich and John Holdren* (1974) IPAT Model Paul Ehrlich and John Holdren* (1974) I = P x A x T Increased Population = more individuals take up space, use resources and generate waste. Increased Affluence = greater per capita resource consumptions that accompanies enhance wealth. Technology= exploitation of minerals, fossil fuels, old-growth forest and fisheries BUT …. Technology= reduces smokestack emissions, harnesses renewable energy, improves manufacturing efficiency UNNUMBERED FIGURE PG 196 *Holdren is a Harvard University environmental scientist. He is also President Obama’s science advisor;

FIGURE 8.6

What is Cultural Carrying Capacity? Are you willing to have less space in which to live? Less food to eat --- Less material wealth?

Growth Rate What is the formula for finding natural increase (growth rate)? r = b – d r = 26/1000 - 5/1000 r = 0.026 – 0.005 = 0.021 0.021 X 100 = 2.1% per year OR (the easy way) r = 26/10 - 5/10 r = 2.6 - .5 = 2.1 or 2.1% per year

Total Population Growth (b + i) – (d + e) = total population growth Let’s Practice Birth = 8/1000 Death = 3/1000 immigration = 4/1000 emigration = 2/1000 (8 + 4) – (3 + 2) 1000 1000 12 – 5 = 7 X 100 = .7% 1000 1000 The Other Way…. 12 – 5 = 7 = .7% 10 10 10

Doubling Time Rule of 70 – determines the number of years it will take a country’s population to double. Doubling time = 70/%growth rate Growth rate = 70/doubling time Let’s practice: A country’s growth rate is 1.5%. How many years will it take that country’s population to double? 70/1.5 = 46.7 years

Calculate the annual growth rate and the doubling time for the following countries: Country CBR CDR % increase Doubling time (yrs) Australia 15 7 Bangladesh 37 13 United States 13 8 Botswana 36 9 Canada 14 7 Germany 10 11 Haiti 42 19 India 29 10 Russia 11 12

Calculate the annual growth rate and the doubling time for the following countries: Country CBR CDR % natural increase Doubling time (yrs) Australia 15 7 .8 87.5 Bangladesh 37 13 2.4 29.2 United States 13 8 .5 140 Botswana 36 9 2.7 25.9 Canada 14 7 .7 100 Germany 10 11 -0.1 -700 Haiti 42 19 2.3 30.4 India 29 10 1.9 36.8 Russia 11 12 -0.1 - 700

Demographic Facts of Life Grim Reaper’s Revenge As devastating as wars, natural disasters, accidents, diseases, etc. are, they often have little impact on overall population growth worldwide. We are currently adding 228,000 people to the planet each day = to 1 Hong Kong a month!. At today’s present rate of growth, let’s determine how many days it would take to replace those lost.

Mapping Our Population’s Environmental Impact NPP = the net amount of energy stored in plant matter as a result of photosynthesis. Overuse of NPP diminishes resources for other species; alters habitats, communities, and ecosystems; and threatens our future ability to derive ecosystem services. Read The Science behind the Story on pages 202-203. How did scientist conduct the study? What data did the scientist collect? What were the results of their study? What can scientist conclude from the study?

How do population pyramids help us learn about population?

POST-REPRODUCTIVE REPRODUCTIVE PRE-REPRODUCTIVE

Population in millions Population pyramids are used to show information about the age and gender of people in a specific country. Male Female There is also a high Death Rate. In this country there is a high Birth Rate Population in millions This population pyramid is typical of countries in poorer parts of the world (LEDCs.)

In some LEDCs the government is encouraging couples to have smaller families. This means the birth rate has fallen.

Population in millions Male Female Population in millions The largest category of people were born about 40 years ago. In this country the number of people in each age group is about the same. In this country there is a low Birth Rate and a low Death Rate. This population pyramid is typical of countries in the richer parts of the world (MEDCs.)

Population in millions Male Female Population in millions In the future the elderly people will make up the largest section of the population in this country. In this country the birth rate is decreasing. This is happening more and more in many of the world’s richer countries.

Population in thousands Male Female Population in thousands This country has a large number of temporary workers. These are people who migrate here especially to find a job.

Population pyramid for Mozambique. Population pyramid for Iceland.

What happens next?

What is going to happen to Japan’s population in the future? Why does this matter?

FIGURE 8.13

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You decide!

What is the Demographic Transition? The shift from high to low mortality and fertility A sign of socio-economic progress? The shift from high mortality and fertility to low mortality and fertility is known as the “demographic transition.” It is based on the experience of Western Europe, in particular England and Wales. This model was first described by the American demographer Warren Thompson in 1929. In 1945, Frank W. Notestein further developed this theory and suggested that there was a relationship between population change and industrialization. A debate continues questioning if population growth must decline for economic development or if economic progress (or industrialization) leads to slower population growth. In light of this debate, the completion of the demographic transition has come to be associated with socioeconomic progress. [FYI – The factors that drive childbearing trends—such as the economy, education, gender relations, and access to family planning—are numerous and complex. These same factors are signs of socioeconomic development.]

Demographic Transition Read pages 210-211 What is the definition of demographic transition? Identify the characteristics of each stage. Stage Description First Stage – Pre Industrial Second Stage -- Transitional Third Stage -- Industrial Fourth Stage – Post Industrial

Mapping Our Population’s Environmental Impact NPP = the net amount of energy stored in plant matter as a result of photosynthesis. Overuse of NPP diminishes resources for other species; alters habitats, communities, and ecosystems; and threatens our future ability to derive ecosystem services. Read The Science behind the Story on pages 202-203. How did scientist conduct the study? What data did the scientist collect? What were the results of their study? What can scientist conclude from the study?