Sustainable Heat for Buildings Martien Visser, Energy Transition and Networks Thursday, September 21th, Springtij, Terschelling

Since March 2017, I have solar panels My energy bill in 2016: €160/month Distribution costs electricity > commodity costs Since March 2017, I have solar panels

LT heat & power Gas vs electricity LT-heat vs power 4x more volume 10x more capacity Note: In the city of Groningen there hardly energy intensive industry and almost 100% of the buildings are heated by natural gas. Thus: natural gas demand = LT heat demand

Synchronicity; power versus LT-heat Demand for low temperature heat is primarily due to ambient temperature and occurs synchronous Typically, households have a connection of 3x25A electricity 16 kW Planning electricity grids requires 1,2 kW (8%) per household Typically, households have a connection of 2-3 m3/hr for gas 25 kW Planning gas networks requires 15 kW (60%) Significant usage of electricity for heating purposes will require adjustment of this planning criterion for electricity networks

Heat demand versus effective temperature City of Groningen (data 2012) Many other factors play a role, => uncertainty (normal distribution). How to deal with it? A different choice for other energy carriers? Note: 900 MWh/h  15 kW/household. Thus, 60% of full end use capacity December-15 Page

Lengthy cold winters Demand for LT-heat  Severity of a winter Measured in (summed) heating-degree-days HD = max (0, 17-Teff) (Teff = Tamb – 2/3 U (in m/s) Planning for a 1:20 cold winter is currently associated with gas (energy) in storage. Could we anticipate on winter climate change and extrapolate? Who bears the risk?

LT Heating: The energy system Gas is produced in base-load with little overcapacity Demand variations are covered by gas storages Gas storages have typically a volume of 15-20% of the annual gas demand Also to cope with exceptional weather, technical failures (and geopolitics) Power production follows demand and varies significantly (non base-load) Typically, significant overcapacity is required: 50-70% above base-load. The fuel (gas or coal) may be stored This fundamental difference is due to economics; gas storage is typically 1000x cheaper (per unit of energy) than electricity storage. Exceptional weather, technical failures (and geopolitics) needs consideration

Saving energy at the buildings Saving energy is usually beneficial; Saving significant amounts of energy for existing buildings may be challenging Since 1990, gas demand per NL household has been reduced by 35%, but total consumption of gas has remained the same The costs energy saving (per ton CO2 reduction) increase if more is required The optimal level of insulation requires economic optimization and varies: with heat networks, green gas, all-electric. Will this be socially acceptable? Make energy saving fun!

Energy costs and consumer behaviour Price elasticity of energy by households is very low

Many sustainable alternatives Various technologies to replace natural gas Heat Networks waste energy, biomass, geothermal energy All electric with heat pumps and strict isolation Green gas with/without (hybrid) heat pumps Hydrogen (under development, green/blue) Wood stoves or pellet burners Combinations of these techniques Each technique has advantages - and disadvantages – and could result in near-zero CO2 Differences occur in: production, networks, storage, insulation, costs, risks … … and vary for customers, producers, suppliers, networks, companies, etc..

How to make a region or city CO2-free? Project Development is required Which alternative is most attractive? Where? What is the optimal sequence? How to minimize the costs while delivering what is needed Organize (detailed) engineering, permitting and tendering Realize fairness and societal acceptance? The business case & how to distribute the costs and risks Steering the stakeholder process Build the new infrastructure Operate & Trouble shooting Leiden Assen

A typical investment process may take 5-7 yrs; scale-up during the process Stakeholder/permitting processes Long lead items & tendering -50/+50% -40/+40% -30/+30% Accuracy of cost estimate -20/+20% Concept selection Bottleneck identification Feasibility studies Engineering Execution -10/+10% 6-12 months 3-9 months 6-12 months 24-36 months Source: Gasunie

How to organize the LT transition work? How to get the LT energy transition realized within a certain time frame? Who should (can) be in control? Who should ultimately decide and takes the responsibility? Who should pay and bear the risks? Who should do the work? Is national control required? Stakeholders: consumers, house/building owners, network companies, energy suppliers, energy producers, local governments, regulators, equipment/building companies, permitting authorities, NGOs, ….