AUSTRALIA’S POPULATION: YESTERDAY, TODAY AND TOMORROW by Graeme Hugo ARC Australian Professorial Fellow Professor of Geography and Director of the National Centre for Social Applications of GIS The University of Adelaide Opening Address To Professional Development Seminar of Australian & New Zealand Association of Clerks at the Table, Parliament House, North Terrace, Adelaide 27 January 2011

Outline of Presentation Introduction The Global Context Dynamics of Contemporary Australian Population Growth - Growth - Composition - Distribution The Population Outlook Australia’s Population Dilemma - The Baby Boomers and Ageing - The Environmental Constraints Policy – Challenges and Opportunities Conclusion

Exploding Myths About Population Population is dynamic, always changing, but the change is gradual Population is influenced by economic change but not a function of them Some population change is structural – inevitable and predictable Population is amenable to policy intervention

Global Population Change Current global population 6,810 million Current annual increase rate 1.2% compared to 2.1% in 1969 Percent in MDCs, 32.1 in 1950, 17.9 in 2010 and 13.9 in 2050 Percent Urban, 28.8 in 1950, 50.5 in 2010 Projected Global Population in 2050 – 9,149 million

“Over the next couple of decades nothing will impact OECD economies more profoundly than demographic trends and, chief among them, ageing” Jean-Philippe Cotis Chief Economist, OECD March 2005

Labour Force Age Groups and Dependency Rates Source: World Bank, 2006

Contemporary Population Growth Rates (% pa) Source: ESCAP 2009; Population Reference Bureau 2008 and 2009; ABS 2010

Processes of Population Growth Mortality Fertility Migration

Australia: Expectation of Life at Birth, 1870-2008 Source: Hugo 1986 and ABS Deaths Bulletins Males Females 1947 66.1 70.6 2008 79.2 83.7

Australia: Expectation of Life at Age 50, 1901-1910, 1970-1972 and 2008 Source: ABS Year Males Females 1901-1910 21.2 23.7 1970-1972 23.0 28.3 2008 31.5 35.2

Persons Aged 65 Years and Over with Disabilities Source: ABS 2005

Different Views on Future of Mortality Increased longevity Reduced longevity – impact of obesity

Percent of Australians Overweight or Obese by Age and Sex, 2004 Source: ABS 2008

Fertility Australia: Total Fertility Rate, 1901 to 2008 Source: CBCS Demography and ABS Births Australia, various issues

Total Fertility Rates in the United States and Selected More Developed Countries, 2009 Source: Population Reference Bureau 2009

Australia: Total Population Growth Showing the Natural Increase and Net Migration Components, 1947 to 2010 Source: ABS 1996 and ABS Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues

2008-9: A Record Year of Immigration Source: 2008-9: A Record Year of Immigration Source: DIAC, 2009a and b; ABS, 2010

A Paradigm Shift in Australian Migration Increase in non permanent migration Increase in onshore migration Increased focus on skill Introduction of State Specific and Regional Migration Scheme Increased settlement outside main gateways Increased diversity

Australia: Temporary Migration, 1986-87 to 2008-09 Source: DIAC, Population Flows: Immigration Aspects, various issues; DIAC 2009

Australia: Onshore Residence Visa Grants, Number and as a Percentage of Total Migration Program Visas Granted, 1989-90 to 2008-09 Source: DIAC Population Flows: Immigration Aspects, various issues

Australia: Unauthorised Arrivals, 1989-90 to 2010 Source: Australia: Unauthorised Arrivals, 1989-90 to 2010 Source: DIMIA 2002, 2004 and 2005; DIAC 2007, 2009b and c; Bolt, 2010, 22

Permanent Additions by Eligibility Category Source: ABS 2007, Australian Social Trends; DIAC 2009

Australia: Settler Arrivals by State According to Whether They are State Specific and Regional Migration Scheme Migrants or Other Migrants, 2008-09 Source: DIAC Population Flows: Immigration Aspects, various issues; DIAC Immigration Update, various issues; DIAC 2009

Australia: Settlement of Migrants Outside of Capital Cities, 1996 to 2009 Source: DIAC

Australia: Settler Arrivals by Region of Last Residence, 1947 to 2009 Source: DIMIA Australian Immigration Consolidated Statistics; DIAC Immigration Update, various issues and DIAC unpublished data

Key Changes in Population Composition Ageing Ethnic Diversity Family/Household size and composition

Indigenous Population 455,027 persons in 2006 Growing at 2.1% per annum TFR of 2.5 in 2005-7 Life Expectancy at Birth - 67.2 males, 72.9 females 68.7% in Non-Metropolitan Areas

Australia: Age-Sex Structure of the Population, June 2009 Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population data

Baby Boomers 2006 27.5% of Australian Population 41.8% of Australian Workforce

Wittert 2006

A Distinct Population Distribution 87% living in urban areas 64% living in capital cities 81% living 50 km from coast

Changing Population Distribution Shifts in the Australian Proportion Centroid, 1911-2006 Source: Australian Censuses, ABS 2003, 2004 and 2007

Australia: Changing Distribution of the Population Between Urban and Rural Sectors, 1921 to 2006 Source: Australian Censuses, 1921-2006

Australia: Population Change in Country Towns, 2001-2006 Source: Australian Censuses of 2001 and 2006

Australia: Mobility Rates (Percent) by Age, 1981-86, 1991-96 and 2001-2006 Source: ABS One Percent Sample Files, 1986, 1996 and 2006 Censuses

Australia: Interstate Migration, 2001-2006 Source: ABS 2006 Census

Projecting the Population Different to prediction ABS does every 3 years Assumptions regarding mortality, fertility and migration

ABS Projections of the Population of Australia, 2005 and 2008 Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population data and Projections 2008

Structural Ageing: Australia: Change by Age: 2006 – 2021; 2031 (Series B) Source: ABS 2008 Projections

Australia: Growth of the Population by State, 2010 to 2030 Source: ABS 2008 Series B Projections

Australia’s Population Dilemma On the one hand there is a need to grow the population because - A replacement task – 42% of the present workforce are baby boomers - Net increases in demand for labour On the other there are substantial environmental constraints which will be exacerbated by climate change

The Third Intergenerational Report (cont) Source: Swan 2010, p.xi

The Third Intergenerational Report (cont) Source: Swan 2010, p.xvi

Responding to the Implications of an Ageing Population Source: Swan 2010, p.xiii

Meeting the Challenges Strategies for Baby Boomers Increased Age at Retirement Increased saving and preparation for retirement Reduced obesity and improved health Strategies for the Rest of the Working Age Groups Increased productivity Increased workforce participation Strategies in the Health and Aged Care Sectors Improved efficiency Preventative health Better models of funding and provision

Percent Participation Australia: Changes in Participation Rates of the Older Population in the Workforce, 1970-2010 Source: ABS Labour Force Surveys Percent Participation May 1970 June 1999 February 2010 Age Group Males Females 55-59 91.5 28.7 72.9 44.1 79.4 64.4 60-64 79.2 14.9 46.9 17.6 61.7 41.8 65+ 23.2 3.6 9.7 3.2 14.8 6.4

Addressing Ageing There are no silver bullets – no single policy intervention will counteract the effects of ageing Introduction of a number of strategies involving Productivity, Participation and Population is essential To be most effective they need to be introduced well before the ageing “crunch” Demographically Australia is better placed than any OECD country to effectively cope with ageing but it needs to begin appropriate policy intervention now

Environmental Constraints on Population Long recognised Mismatch between water and population Exacerbated by climate change

The Mismatch Between Water and Population (Nix 1988, 72) Far North Australia (%) Southern Population 2 82 Potentially Arable Land 4 65 Annual Mean Surface Run Off 52 27

By far the largest volumes of uncommitted water are in northern Australia and Western Tasmania. In the most heavily populated regions of south western and south eastern Australia surface waters are committed to a high degree and the consequences of climate change are potentially most serious Pittock and Nix 1986

Climate Change Impacts on Population Distribution in Australia (Canas 2006) Direct Sea level changes Reduced rainfall and increased evaporation Higher temperatures Severe weather events Bushfires Indirect Health related problems Ecosystems Tourism

Climate Change Impact Hotspots Source: Climate Action Network 2006

Trend in Annual Total Rainfall 1960 – 2009 (mm/10years) Source: CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology 2010

Australia: Rainfall and Population in 2006

Responses To The Water Dilemma Change level and pattern of Consumption of water Search for, and develop, “new” water supplies Relocate Population so the distribution more closely matches that of water resources Direct new investment to more environmentally favourable areas

Climate Change and Future Migration within Australia Unlikely to create massive shifts in population distribution However predicted growth opens the opportunity to locate differently to the past Will influence where future growth will occur Some agriculture, especially irrigation agriculture will move Water will be more influential as a location factor in human settlement

Rethinking Australia’s Settlement System Most Australians will continue to live in capital cities and developing more sustainable large metropolitan areas is an important national priority However we must also consider to what extent our settlement system is the most efficient for the Twenty First Century and do the science to see whether modification of the settlement system would be advisable and possible

Issues to be Considered Several of fastest developing sectors of the economy have a strong non-metropolitan location (mining and tourism) There is already net outmigration of the Australian-born from capital cities like Sydney

Issues to be Considered (cont) Increased international migration to non-metropolitan areas Environmental constraints of southeastern Australia

Sydney Statistical Division: Net Internal and International Migration, 1971 to 2006 Source: NSW Department of Planning

What is Needed? Currently there is an unproductive debate between “pro growth” and “stop growth” lobbies There must be trade offs and compromises which facilitate growth with sustainability, informed by the best information and knowledge available across all relevant disciplines Regardless, there will be substantial continued population growth over the next two decades but we need to carefully consider (a) How much growth and not adopt unsubstantiated aspirational population targets? (b) Where is that growth best located?

Conclusion (1) Australia is demographically better placed than most OECD countries to cope with economic, demographic and environmental changes over the next two decades However Australia lacks a population policy which is informed not only by economic imperatives but also environmental and social inclusion concerns The last National Inquiry into Australia’s population was in 1971 and the time is appropriate for an informed multidisciplinary investigation into Australia’s future population

Conclusion (2) This investigation should engage the best science but at the same time have a broad engagement with the views of the whole community There is a large potential to be bipartisan in population policy Crucial importance of developing a vision of the population of the future which is sustainable Ministry of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, Strategy on Population. 3 Months Period to Receive Submissions