ITT and SKE Recruitment Mark Crowley mark.crowley@ntu.ac.uk April 2018

Objectives Review recent TSM targets and relevant ITT recruitment Consider patterns in recruitment (incl rejection rates) Findings with Subject Knowledge Enhancement (SKE) usage

49% 37% 9% 43% ITT target Teacher Supply Model TSM 2017-18 Current stock of teachers and their wastage rates Teaching hours per subject and DfE policies (EBacc) Growth of pupil population and additional teachers needed Net growth by comparing entrants versus leavers. Success of ITT routes feeding NQTs into state schools Model expects 50% of entrants will be NQTs PG Routes into Physics assumed to be HEI SD SCITT 49% 37% 9% 43% 79% 76% 81% 89% ITT target Completion and Employment https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/teacher-supply-model-2017-to-2018

PG Attrition rates TSM 2017-18 Historic completion and employment rates are applied to the NQT need in order back- calculate the ITT target: Subject Target Attrition rates NQTs Entrants 86% 79% 78% 82% 81% Biology 1188 1053 1055 803 678 671 1599 1349 1336 Chemistry Physics Completion and Employment These are based on an average of four years up to 2013-14 when bursaries were significantly lower https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/teacher-supply-model-2017-to-2018

Recruitment vs Targets Biology EBITT/SD HEI/SCITT 2017-18 HEI PG HEI UG School-led PG Primary 26% (4615) Secondary All phases 1% (200) 15% (4815) 34% (5840) 47% (7095) 40% (12935) 40% (6965) 52% (7815) 45% (14780) 101% 96% 88% 84% 85% 115% Target 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 School-Led HEI Number of trainees fringe meeting at the Conservative Party conference, organised by the free market thinktank Policy Exchang https://www.tes.com/news/school-news/breaking-news/nick-gibb-now-a-good-time-become-a-teacher 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Recruitment vs Targets Chemistry 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 EBITT/SD HEI/SCITT 110% 132% 94% 117% 82% 98% Target Number of trainees

Recruitment vs Targets Physics 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 Target 97% 71% 70% 65% 68% 80% EBITT/SD HEI/SCITT Number of trainees

Shortfall in census TSM 2017-18 Although the 2017-18 census shows a shortfall against target, the NQT need could still be met in theory: NQTs Subject Target 1188 1053 1055 925 845 695 Census Attrition rates Likely Model 86% 79% 78% 82% 81% 86% 79% 78% 82% 81% Biology 630 585 440 803 678 671 Chemistry Physics Census numbers exceed NQT entrants before attrition considered https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/teacher-supply-model-2017-to-2018

Expect a drop off with conditions not being met Recruitment cycle Placed+ Conditional Generic Expect a drop off with conditions not being met 1000 900 800 700 Conditional 600 Number of applicants 500 400 Holding offer Placed 300 200 100 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep End of cycle https://www.ucas.com/corporate/data-and-analysis/ucas-teacher-training-releases

Length of recruitment cycle UCAS 2016-17 ITT 2017-18 “Science” 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Number of applicants HEI School-led (SD & SCITT) Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept End of cycle https://www.ucas.com/corporate/data-and-analysis/ucas-teacher-training-releases

UCAS cycle 2013-14 starting ITT in September 2014 Recruitment 2013-19 Placed+ Conditional Biology 1,200 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,400 2015-16 UCAS cycle 2013-14 starting ITT in September 2014 2016-17 2017-18 2014-15 2013-14 Number of applicants 2013-14 and 2014-15 ran over short recruitment period AND had unreliable data Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept EoC Census https://www.ucas.com/corporate/data-and-analysis/ucas-teacher-training-releases

Chemistry Recruitment 2013-19 23rd April 18 16th April 17 20 15 Placed+ Conditional Chemistry 1,200 Day 180 23rd April 18 16th April 17 Placed 20 Conditional Firm 15 24th April 16 50 390 320 520 2015-16 1,000 2014-15 2016-17 2013-14 800 Number of applicants 600 400 UCAS open dates were 27 Oct 2015, 18 Oct 2016 and 26 Oct 2017 2017-18 200 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept EoC Census https://www.ucas.com/corporate/data-and-analysis/ucas-teacher-training-releases

Physics Recruitment 2013-19 23rdApril 18 16th April 17 15 10 Placed+ Conditional Physics 200 400 600 800 1,000 2015-16 Day 180 23rdApril 18 16th April 17 Placed 15 Conditional Firm 10 24th April 16 30 300 240 345 2014-15 2016-17 2013-14 Number of applicants 2017-18 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept EoC Census https://www.ucas.com/corporate/data-and-analysis/ucas-teacher-training-releases

UCAS End of Cycle & ITT Census UCAS 2016-17  ITT 2017-18 Biology UCAS EoC: Placed + conditional 100 200 300 400 500 600 520+5 220 60 95 505 Number of applicants 230 115 90 75 Higher Education School Direct (fee) (sal) SCITT https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/initial-teacher-training-trainee-number-census-2017-to-2018

UCAS End of Cycle & ITT Census UCAS 2016-17  ITT 2017-18 Chemistry 500 445+10 235 45 100 450 430 400 350 300 Number of applicants 250 255 200 150 100 120 50 40 30 Higher Education School Direct (fee) (sal) SCITT https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/initial-teacher-training-trainee-number-census-2017-to-2018

UCAS End of Cycle & ITT Census UCAS 2016-17  ITT 2017-18 Physics 400 370+10 155 50 95 370 350 300 250 Number of applicants 200 150 165 100 105 50 55 20 Higher Education School Direct (fee) (sal) SCITT https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/initial-teacher-training-trainee-number-census-2017-to-2018

Prior UCAS vs Census ITT 2017-18 Subject Biology Chemistry Physics Total HEI Conversion rate 96% 95% Fall of 60 HEI UCAS Census 525 505 455 430 385 370 1,365 1,305 School-Led Conversion rate 109% 108% Rise of 100 School-Led UCAS Census 385 420 380 415 300 325 1,065 1,160 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/initial-teacher-training-trainee-number-census-2016-to-2017

Response from ITTStatistics From: ITTStatistics.PUBLICATIONS@education.gov.uk Sent: 09 April 2018 12:02 To: mark.crowley@ntu.ac.uk Subject: Less UCAS applicants than trainees in the ITT Census On UCAS these are completed by applicants on an ongoing basis and the ITT Census is completed once by the provider of ITT. These two groups may have a different understanding of their course route or more likely, they may have switched courses and not informed UCAS. Other factors could be subject mappings – the subjects in Census and UCAS are different... For example, there are courses in the UCAS data that are just advertised as ‘Science’ courses so we can’t assign a specific subject. These are reported in the UCAS data referenced as ‘No single subject assigned’. Teachers Analytical Division. Manchester, DFE At the EoC, NSSA account for only 55 HEI & 40 School-Led applicants across all subjects within UCAS UTT! This questions (again) how reliable UCAS data are and caution when making any conclusion/decision based on it

Recognising potential – rejection rates UCAS 2015-16  ITT 2016-17 Can make a rough and ready estimate of rejection rate from UCAS data knowing that a total of 46,000 applicants made 124,800 applications (average 2.7 each) Report B: UCAS Teacher Training End of Cycle 2016 Successful Applicants* Applications Subject Placed Conditional Holding offer Biology 1,210 20 10 Chemistry 960 Physics 800 Other 4,120 3,080 2,760 All Applicants ~1,980 ~1,500 ~1,320 Offer rate* ~63% ~65% ~62% All states 5,360 4,050 3,590 1,240 970 830 Divide by 2.7 to give approx. applicants *does not account for withdrawals/declined offers

Recognising potential – rejection rates UCAS 2016-17  ITT 2017-18 Can make a rough and ready estimate of rejection rate from UCAS data knowing that a total of 46,200 applicants made 125,200 applications (average 2.7 each) Report B: UCAS Teacher Training End of Cycle 2017 Successful Applicants Applications Subject Placed Conditional Holding offer Biology 1,210 20 10 Chemistry 960 Physics 800 All Applicants ~1,560 ~1,290 ~1,080 All states 4,220 3,470 2,920 Offer rate* ~59% ~64% ~63% 920 830 680 *does not account for withdrawals/declined offers

Allocations Undergraduate routes Subject Biology* Chemistry Physics** Maths 2014-15 ~14 ~33 ~31 ~90 2015-16 22 51 70 275 2016-17 45 51 183 304 2017-18 15 27 84 258 *Bio & General Science **includes Physics with Maths

Census Undergraduate routes Subject Biology* Chemistry Physics** All subj 2014-15 10 15 23 328 2015-16 - 320 2016-17 - 243 2017-18 5 10 200 *Bio & General Science **includes Physics with Maths

Subject Knowledge Enhancement April 2018

SKE numbers Freedom of Information request Vague “Provider Led” https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/ske_numbers_by_provider_3#incoming-1079824

UCAS End of Cycle & ITT Census Biology 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 620 505 SKE funding for >325 35% of 925 trainees 36% 39% 13% 3% 230 0.608 0.478788 0.109091 1.55 115 90 75 Higher Education SCITT Provider Led School Direct (Fee) School Direct (Sal) https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/ske_numbers_by_provider_3#incoming-1079824

UCAS End of Cycle & ITT Census Chemistry 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 550 430 SKE funding for >340 40% of 845 trainees 45% 26% 15% 50% 255 0.608 0.478788 0.109091 1.55 120 40 30 Higher Education SCITT Provider Led School Direct (Fee) School Direct (Sal) https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/ske_numbers_by_provider_3#incoming-1079824

UCAS End of Cycle & ITT Census Physics 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 475 370 SKE funding for >340 49% of 695 trainees 48% 47% 9% 150% 165 0.608 0.478788 0.109091 1.55 105 55 20 Higher Education SCITT Provider Led School Direct (Fee) School Direct (Sal) https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/ske_numbers_by_provider_3#incoming-1079824

SKE Physics AY SKE Physics 2014-15 75 2015-16 59 2016-17 ~30 2014-17 164 Teach First have enrolled biologists and chemists on to SKE Physics courses https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/ske_numbers_by_provider_3#incoming-1079824

Response from NCTL From: SKE, TA [mailto:TA.SKE@education.gov.uk] Sent: 13 April 2017 07:36 To: Crowley, Mark <mark.crowley@ntu.ac.uk> Subject: RE: SKE subject specialisms - issues with TeachFirst nunbers   TeachFirst can offer applicants a Science ITT course rather than Chemistry, Biology or Physics. The SKE course… may not be in the specific science subject that they wish to teach, as they are intending to go onto a Science ITT course. But the SKE course subject will be a component of the ITT course, and therefore a part of the intended ITT specialism. These TF trainees are categorised by the science specialism they have been allocated before they go into Schools in September. The science specialism on the census may differ from the SKE science subject taken. If a Biologist fails to complete SKE in Physics, do this mean they have not met the condition of their TF Biology offer?

SKE Funding manual SKE Programme Cost Funding Eligibility To be eligible for SKE programme funding, a participant must have accepted a conditional offer of a place on any eligible ITT course via UCAS, or, had the need for SKE identified as part of their application to Teach First. The completion of a SKE course must be a specific condition of the conditional ITT offer. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/subject-knowledge-enhancement-ske-operations-manual

Response from TeachFirst From: xxxxx@teachfirst.org.uk Sent: 23 March 2019 14:57 To: Crowley, Mark <mark.crowley@ntu.ac.uk> Subject: Teach First and SKEs   Hi Mark, All SKE providers working with Teach First seek approval with us before enrolling participants. The SKE is never made a condition of the TF offer, although all incoming participants must undertake the CKA. It is a recommendation based on their subject knowledge prior to starting the LDP. National Office & London Local Area Office 6 Mitre Passage, London, SE10 0ER

But there is some good news!!! SCHEME GRADUATE TEACHING Graduate Teaching Internship Scheme TRYTEACHING The Graduate Teaching Scheme’s ITT recruitment service can help any ITT provider that wants to recruit more trainees on to their provision in 18/19... If you have limited marketing resource and you tend to struggle to get the numbers you would like, then we can support you to recruit more trainees. This is a zero risk service as we only charge on successful recruitment. Our fees are as follows (per each recruited trainee): Shortage Secondary and Primary Maths – £495 Other secondary and Primary – £395 http://www.gradstoteaching.org/

Any questions? Mark Crowley Senior Lecturer in Science Education Nottingham Trent University mark.crowley@ntu.ac.uk +(44) 115 848 8064 Remember to register with the Free National Vacancy Service for teachers and schools: www.teachvac.co.uk http://www4.ntu.ac.uk/edu/teacher_training/