Socio-Economic Tool to assess relevance of nickel metal and its value chains in Europe Mark Mistry Nickel Institute NeRSAP 7 Meeting Bilbao 12th & 13th February 2018

Our challenge Nickel: potential impacts on value chain not seen as uses are not visible

Consequences Proposals by decision makers do often not consider the potential adverse impacts for parties involved Industry SMEs Civil society Authorities R&D We ourselves might not understand all consequences Our value chain ignores relevance of issues (far) upstream in the value chain

NI activities Development of Nickel Metal SEA Tool Assess nickel value chains in Europe from mining to recycling Combine statistics from public sources with market data & company reporting Follow agreed modeling approaches (e.g. EC and OECD guidance) Show main socio-economic parameters Provision of a dynamic tool that allows to conduct scenarios

SEA Tool requirements Reliable and robust tool Transparent and based on official data Use existing approaches used by authorities or accepted in science Dynamic model that allows to develop different scenarios Possibility to update Blueprint for other commodities

Socio-Economic Tool: Partners Contracted partners Roskill Pariser: market analyst with strong focus on Ni an stainless steel REACH Law: broad experience with socio-economic modelling from e.g. authorization cases Combination of two partners with expertise in market data and modeling

Data requirements Market data Exploration, mining, smelting, refining First use End use End of life Statistics EUROSTAT data on production and associated parameters Sources EUROSTAT Company reports National Statistics Commercial databases Various market data reports Yale Stocks and Flows

Resulting data Technical dimension Nickel [t] from mining to recycling Economic dimension Value Added, output [€] Investments into R&D [€] Social dimension Employment SMEs Geographic dimension relevance of certain parts of nickel value chain in certain countries and regions

Technology dimension: The Nickel Value Chain Reference year: 2014 Data from Roskill Pariser (Nickel End use report)

Economic Dimension: Modeling First & End Uses   Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products C20 Manufacture of other chemical products C205 Manufacture of other chemical products n.e.c C2059 Manufacture of basic metals C24 Manufacture of basic iron and steel and of ferro-alloys C241 Manufacture of tubes, pipes, hollow profiles and related fittings, of steel C242 Manufacture of other products of first processing of steel C243 Manufacture of basic precious and other non-ferrous metals C244 Copper Production C2444 Other non-ferrous metal production C2445 Casting of metals C245 Casting of iron C2451 Casting of steel C2452 Casting of other non-ferrous metals C2454 Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment C25 Forging, pressing, stamping and roll-forming of metal; powder metallurgy C255 C2550 Treatment and coating of metals; machining C256 Treatment and coating of metals C2561 Manufacture of electrical equipment C27 Manufacture of batteries and accumulators C272 C2720 EUROSTAT Pros: publicly available data which can be reproduced Cons: data disaggregation is sometimes limited Approach Identify relevant NACE 4 Codes for nickel first uses Align NACE 4 Codes with First use of nickel

Economic & Social Dimension: Nickel Allocation Factor Approach taken: Nickel value in a sector / Total value added of sector Example: Nickel value is 10% of Sector X Allocation Factor: 10% Pros/ Cons: Easy to calculate & explain Underestimate criticality? Overestimate impacts? Total Value Added Sector X 10% Nickel value in sector X

Economic & Social Dimension: Direct and indirect impacts Direct & indirect impacts: Approach based on widely accepted concept Value chain has positive indirect impacts on other economic activities & employment EUROSTAT provides “multipliers” Specific for each NACE 4 sector Publicly available Application of multipliers to SEA modeling

Economic & Social Dimension: Direct and indirect impacts Multipliers: Applied to all investigated parameters (jobs, value added, output) Factor ranges between <2 (e.g. furniture) and >9 (building and construction) EU input output model

End of life End of life data Difficult to get access to data Data from Yale University on nickel stocks & flows and recycling Data used to assess tonnages entering end of life management Nickel cycle, Germany All values Gg/a Ni Reck et al 2016. How China's decade revolutionized nickel and stainless steel markets (working title). in preparation.

Outcome of modeling: EU socio-economic data

Outcome of modeling: EU socio-economic data

European Nickel Metal value chain Using the tool for modeling: the example of Cobalt metal classification: Cobalt metal classification proposal for all CMR endpoints SCL of 0.01% All routes of exposure (oral, dermal, inhalation) Co in Ni as impurity >0.01% Nickel and other metals / alloys get same classification

Impact on Ni supply chain and end uses Mining 1.200 jobs at risk Refining 5.000 jobs at risk Nickel First Use 147.000 jobs at risk Nickel End Use 254.000 jobs at risk

Future work Nickel Allocation Factor Different alternative approaches on the table which we want to apply in update of the model Criticality of raw material in a sector to be taken into consideration EUROSTAT “multipliers” Replace EU multipliers by national multipliers Indirect impacts For time being we only considered Type 1 impacts related to production Ongoing work to also assesses Type 2 impacts on consumption

Socio-Economic Tool to assess relevance of nickel metal and its value chains in Europe mmistry@nickelinstitute.org