Harmony – the future of electricity and nuclear delivering its potential
New build and new countries
Highest level of construction in twenty five years: 57 reactors worldwide 1 2 6 15 France Brazil Finland Pakistan Japan Slovakia Belarus South Korea UAE USA India Russia China 6 4 Argentina 1 Turkey 2 4 Bangladesh 1 1 2 Chinese Taipei 2 2 2 2 2 Ukraine Source: World Nuclear Association
2018: Nuclear growth is accelerating New countries and new supply chains Nuclear growth at a 25-year high Driven by need for clean, reliable 24/7 electricity 2018 14 new reactors expected 2015-2017 10 new reactors per year 2015, 2016 4 new 2017 25 year average to 2014 Long term average of 5 new reactors per year
Demand for electricity continues to rise and must be met cleanly AVOID
Decarbonising electricity generation – need for low life cycle emissions: Nuclear energy is among the best Source: World Nuclear Association meta study, incl. IPCC 2014
IEA 2°C Scenario: Nuclear to provide a significant contribution to global electricity in 2050
Nuclear makes quick, lasting decarbonisation possible Source: Cao et al, Science, August 2016. UAE projections by WNA
Harmony: a goal for the nuclear community 1000 gigawatt new nuclear capacity by 2050 25% of electricity supply in 2050 Nuclear to deliver reliable, affordable and clean electricity
Establish a level playing field Establish a level playing field in energy markets which drives investment in future clean energy, where nuclear energy is treated on equal opportunity with other low-carbon technologies and recognized for its value in a reliable, robust low-carbon energy mix. Levelised cost of electricity ranges (LCOE) at 7% discount rate
Establish a level playing field Establish a level playing field in energy markets which drives investment in future clean energy, where nuclear energy is treated on equal opportunity with other low-carbon technologies and recognized for its value in a reliable, robust low-carbon energy mix. Actions: Adopt energy market policies that support all low-carbon energy sources. Adopt appropriate carbon pricing or mechanisms. Ensure grid system and energy security costs and benefits are recognized and rewarded in the energy market. Provide long term price certainty for investment in high capital low- carbon electricity generation projects. Avoid nuclear specific tax burdens.
Ensure harmonised regulatory processes Ensure harmonised regulatory processes to provide a more internationally consistent, efficient and predictable nuclear licensing regime allowing for standardised solutions, to facilitate significant growth of nuclear capacity and timely licensing of innovative designs. Examples of publications Facilitating International. Licensing of Small. Modular Reactors, 2015 Aviation Licensing and Lifetime Management – What Can Nuclear Learn? 2013 International Standardization of Reactor Designs, 2010 Benefits Gained through International Harmonization of Nuclear Safety Standards for Reactor Designs, 2008
Ensure harmonized regulatory processes Ensure harmonized regulatory processes to provide a more internationally consistent, efficient and predictable nuclear licensing regime allowing for standardized solutions, to facilitate significant growth of nuclear capacity and timely licensing of innovative designs. Actions: Increase awareness that harmonized regulations and enhanced international cooperation are compatible with regulatory independence and national sovereignty. Strengthen current industry activities towards the harmonization of regulatory processes. Develop a coherent roadmap to a more internationally consistent regulatory system and international design acceptance by raising the level of international activities by regulators and governments.
Create an effective safety paradigm Create an effective safety paradigm focusing on genuine public wellbeing, where the health, environmental and safety benefits of nuclear are valued when compared with other energy sources. Energy accident fatalities for OECD countries Source: Paul Scherrer Institut. Data for nuclear accidents modified by WNA to reflect UNSCEAR recommendations 2012 and NRC SOARCA study 2015
Create an effective safety paradigm Create an effective safety paradigm focusing on genuine public wellbeing, where the health, environmental and safety benefits of nuclear are valued when compared with other energy sources. Actions: Focus nuclear advocacy on the role of nuclear energy in clean energy systems of the future. Improve perception and build trust through stakeholder engagement. Outreach to policymakers and the public on the risks and benefits of nuclear power compared with other energy sources. Regulatory authorities and the nuclear industry to incorporate and put into effect the international consensus on the risks from low levels of radiation exposure.
Nuclear: Substantial growth required to meet demand in IEA 2 degree scenario GW TWh 2014 2050 200 400 600 800 25% of generation 11% of generation 1250 GW 10000 TWh Additions 1000 8000 TWh Retirements 150 396 GW 2411 1200 11000 7000 5000 3000 9000 Source: World Nuclear Association. Growth required for nuclear energy to supply 25% of electricity in 2050 under demand forecast of two-degree scenario (see IEA, 2015, Energy Technology Perspectives 2015. Assumption: 91% capacity factor 16
Harmony programme 2016-2050 Cumulative 1000 GW new nuclear capacity to 2050 Construction rate doubled from trend of 5GW/y or less to 10GW/y We must maintain 10GW/y to 2020, then ramp up to 1980s level Period Connection rate Added capacity GW per year GW 2016-2020 10 50 2021-2025 25 125 2026-2050 33 825 _________________________________ Total new nuclear capacity 1000 GW
Harmony: a goal for the nuclear community 1000 gigawatt new nuclear capacity by 2050 25% of electricity supply in 2050 Nuclear to deliver reliable, affordable and clean electricity
Harmony - we need your support We need your support to make the change! For information on how you can be part of this initiative visit www.world-nuclear.org/harmony Engage with online survey of the Issue papers visit members.world-nuclear.org Join the Harmony community by contacting us on harnmony2050@world-nuclear.org.