‘GOOD VIBRATIONS’ June 15, 2018 Campaign rhetoric versus economic reality Changing of the guard, 2016 versus others If not in crisis, all the more difficult to find consensus Polarized in the first place Short- versus long-term issues

Global Growth Is Synchronized … Real GDP in selected regions (percent change from four quarters earlier) Sources: Haver Analytics; OECD; World Bank; IMF; CIA; U.S. Department of Commerce; J.P. Morgan. Updated through 2018 Q1. To insert additional slides: Right click the thumbnail image to the left and select “Duplicate Slide” To insert chart into table: Click the center of the table Go to the “Insert” tab at the top of the menu Select chart Formatting Notes: (note- When pasting, select “Paste Special”, then unformatted text – this will preserve the formatting showcased above) Chart Title: Font: Helvetica Bold Size: 9 pt Color: RGB 136/171/213 Chart Subtitle: Font: Helvetica Italic Color: Black: RGB 0/0/0 Chart “Source”: Font: Helvetica Size: 7 pt Color: Black RGB 0/0/0 Copy Header (if applicable): Space after – 9 pt Copy Subhead (if applicable): : Font: Helvetica; Underlined Copy: Line Spacing: 1.5 (Click square on lower-right-hand of the “Paragraph Tab” on the menu bar at the top and the paragraph dialogue box will open) Space between paragraphs is a single line Header/Footer: Size: 8 pt Color: RGB 128/128/128 Global and National Economic Outlook Appendices

… But That’s Only Half the Story Real GDP gap¹ (percent of potential real GDP) ¹ Actual real GDP less potential real GDP as a percent of potential real GDP. Sources: OECD; World Bank; IMF; CIA; U.S. Department of Commerce; J.P. Morgan. Updated through 2018 Q1. To insert additional slides: Right click the thumbnail image to the left and select “Duplicate Slide” To insert chart into table: Click the center of the table Go to the “Insert” tab at the top of the menu Select chart Formatting Notes: (note- When pasting, select “Paste Special”, then unformatted text – this will preserve the formatting showcased above) Chart Title: Font: Helvetica Bold Size: 9 pt Color: RGB 136/171/213 Chart Subtitle: Font: Helvetica Italic Color: Black: RGB 0/0/0 Chart “Source”: Font: Helvetica Size: 7 pt Color: Black RGB 0/0/0 Copy Header (if applicable): Space after – 9 pt Copy Subhead (if applicable): : Font: Helvetica; Underlined Copy: Line Spacing: 1.5 (Click square on lower-right-hand of the “Paragraph Tab” on the menu bar at the top and the paragraph dialogue box will open) Space between paragraphs is a single line Header/Footer: Size: 8 pt Color: RGB 128/128/128 Global and National Economic Outlook Appendices

Birds of a Feather … Real GDP of selected economies (percent change from the previous year) Sources: Haver Analytics; OECD; World Bank; IMF; CIA; U.S. Department of Commerce; J.P. Morgan. Updated through 2017 Q4 (Canada) and 2018 Q1 (others).

… Pretty Much Fly Together Total industry employment in Canada (percent change from 12 months earlier) Sources: Haver Analytics; Statistics Canada. Updated through February 2018 (Canada) and May 2018 (U.S.).

As Oil Goes … Real broad trade-weighted C$ dollar index (2010 = 100) Petroleum ($ per barrel) Sources: Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board. Updated through April 2018.

P.S. Not Much Rhymes With History Selected measures of U.S. unemployment (percent of the labor force) Sources: Haver Analytics; U.S. Department of Labor. Updated through April 2018.

Merchandise Isn’t All We Trade Current account balance (billions of dollars annually) (percent of GDP) Sources: Haver Analytics; U.S. Department of Commerce. Updated through 2017 Q4 (current account) and 2018 Q1 (net exports).

Trade’s Impact Is a Relative Story Current account balance (billions of dollars annually) (percent of GDP) Sources: Haver Analytics; U.S. Department of Commerce. Updated through 2017 Q4 (current account) and 2018 Q1 (net exports).

The U.S.-China Trade Deficit … U.S.-China trade balance (billions of dollars annually) Sources: Haver Analytics; U.S. Department of Commerce. Updated through 2017 Q4.

… Is Stable Versus the Size of the Economy U.S.-China trade balance (percent of nominal GDP) Sources: Haver Analytics; U.S. Department of Commerce. Updated through 2017 Q4.

A GPS for Navigating Global Trade Opportunities Relative real GDP per capita (ratio to U.S. real GDP per capita, 2009 dollars, PPP basis) Sources: Haver Analytics; World Bank; JPMorgan Chase & Co. Updated through 2017 Q3.

Or, Helping Others Helps Ourselves Real consumer spending scenarios (chained 2009 dollars) Sources: Haver Analytics; World Bank; JPMorgan Chase & Co. Updated through 2017 Q3.

CONTACT: James E. Glassman Telephone: (212) 270-0778 jglassman@jpmorgan.com © 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. Chase, JPMorgan and JPMorgan Chase are marketing names for certain businesses of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its subsidiaries worldwide (collectively, “JPMC”). The material contained herein is intended as a general market commentary. To the extent indices have been used in this commentary, please note that it is not possible to invest directly in an index. Opinions expressed herein are those of James Glassman and may differ from those of other J.P. Morgan employees and affiliates. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not be treated as such. Further, the views expressed herein may differ from that contained in J.P. Morgan research reports. The above summary/prices/quotes/statistics have been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness.