2nd Annual Mason Energy Symposium: Energy-Water Nexus Energy-water Nexus in Central Asia: Returning to Soviet Energy-Water Management Framework? Dr. Mariya Pak 2nd Annual Mason Energy Symposium: Energy-Water Nexus April 26, 2018

1960 Shoreline

1960 Shoreline

Fossil Fuel Reserves and Hydropower Potential Country Location in the Basin Crude oil (MTOE) Gas (MTOE) Coal (MTOE) Hydropower potential (GWh/year) Kazakhstan Downstream  1,100 1,500 24,300 27,000 Turkmenistan  75 2,252 Insignificant  2,000 Uzbekistan  82 1,476 2,851 15,000 Tajikistan Upstream  2 5 500 317,000 Kyrgyz Republic  6 580 163,000 Source: Water Energy Nexus in Central Asia (World Bank, 2004)

Erosion of regional cooperation in the energy and water sectors from 1991-2016 Weakening of CAPS Transmission lines have been destroyed or disconnected, reducing the capacity to trade energy Lack of enforcement of agreements Correspondence between the water ministries and minutes of the meetings suggest that there are cases when the agreements are not implemented or there are disagreements if the agreements are implemented in full. Limited geographic scope and timeframe of new agreements In 2008, a dry year, country officials met at least five times to come to agreement on Syr Darya water allocation, at least three times to negotiate operation of Kairakum reservoir, and at least two times for Toktogul reservoir. Manmade natural disaster When the Kyrgyz Republic has to discharge large volumes of water during the winter season (due to high demand in heating and electricity in general), downstream Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan experience flooding.

Recent developments: Positive change in energy-water dialogue Upstream-downstream collaboration on large hydropower project development In October 2017, the Kyrgyz Republic and Uzbekistan signed a Memorandum of Understanding on cooperation in the implementation of the Kambarata HPP-1 construction project. In March 2018, President Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan expressed his interest in investigating the options for Uzbek participation in the development of the Tajik hydropower sector, including construction of Rogun HPP. Regional power trade negotiations and deals have intensified in 2017 - 2018. Uzbekistan is making efforts to restore a synchronized energy grid with its Central Asian neighbors Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, with a possible extension to Afghanistan. The Kyrgyz Republic and Uzbekistan signed a new power trade agreement Transmission lines are being built and restored to re-connect Tajikistan to Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan signed a Memorandum envisioning the transit of electricity from Turkmenistan to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan through Uzbekistan’s power grid.

Concluding remarks Increased regional cooperation on large hydropower construction has potential to: Lead to a new long-term energy-water development plan, which the region has not seen since the Soviets era Improve water allocations mechanisms of Amu and Syr Darya Rivers Generate revenue for the Kyrgyz Republic’s and Tajikistan’s economies Expand the regional and extra-regional power trade Create potential for other forms of transboundary cooperation

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