Managing Democracy Elections in Iran As a hook show a few of the music videos of Goodluck Jonathan (ones for the different tribes) Ask the kids – why is music so important to a campaign? (The vote using pictures/stamps – 75% males/60% of females are literate in Nigeria/50% live in extreme poverty only 20% have access to clean water) Neither country is a substantive democracy; procedural? Not yet. Nigeria: 1959 – about 80% voter turnout; 2011 just over 53% - very hard to examine data because there is so much fraud and intimidation Iran: 2009 75% - again lots of fraud Elections in Iran

Managing Democracy: Iran RELATED VOCABULARY: Electoral Role of the Guardian Council Jurist’s Guardianship Equality with Difference Theocratic Democracy Elite Recruitment Guardian Council: Must approve the candidates; “quasi veto” over any legislation

Managing Democracy: Iran Supreme Leader: “Super-Supreme Leader” Head of State – but he does not travel outside of Iran; rarely talks in public (President Head of Gov’t) Assembly if Religious Experts always has a running of list of candidates for the job; “supervise” the SL (can technically remove the SL) Layers, and layers to make sure everything is in accordance with Islamic Law

SMD- MMD Combo, 25% min Islamic Consultative Assembly: Majlis Since 2007, 207 Electoral Districts (202 have Muslim majorities) Emphasized that this is a CONSULTATIVE legislative body (like the Russian Duma) To Run: Master’s Degree Pledge loyalty to Islamic Republic “Pious” practicing Muslim No “notorious” reputation In good health; 30-75 years old Islamic Consultative Assembly: Majlis

+5 Seats for “Recognized Religious Minorities” Managing Democracy: Iran +5 Seats for “Recognized Religious Minorities” Majlis: Fluid Parties = Broad Coalitions Broad Coalitions, 2000 Conservatives 54 Reformists 189 Independents 42 2004 Conservatives 156 Reformists 39 Independents 31 2008 Conservatives 195 Reformists 51 Independents 39 2012 [Round 1 only] Conservatives 143 Reformists 59 Independents 9 In 2000 = 80% turnout 2004 – 5400 candidates – 2500 DQ’d (including 80 sitting MP’s – not pious enough; or vocal against the SL) 4x as many as 2000 - turnout down to 50-55% 2008 – 2000 DQ’d of 4500 (90% of those were reformists) 2012 – 5400 candidates (2000 DQ’d – supports of Pres Ahmad & reformists) Turnout ??? The government claimed is was very high 90 minutes after the voting started on March 2

+5 Seats for “Recognized Religious Minorities” Managing Democracy: Iran +5 Seats for “Recognized Religious Minorities” Majlis: Fluid Parties = Broad Coalitions Broad Coalitions, 2012 [Round 1] Conservatives 143 Reformists 59 Independents 9 2012 [Round 2 (65 seats)] Conservatives (Anti-Prez) 41 Conservatives (Pro-Prez) 13 Independents 11 TOTAL: Conservatives 197 Independents 20 Reformers 59 In 2000 = 80% turnout 2004 – 5400 candidates – 2500 DQ’d (including 80 sitting MP’s – not pious enough; or vocal against the SL) 4x as many as 2000 - turnout down to 50-55% 2008 – 2000 DQ’d of 4500 (90% of those were reformists) 2012 – 5400 candidates (2000 DQ’d – supports of Pres Ahmad & reformists) Turnout ??? The government claimed is was very high 90 minutes after the voting started on March 2

Managing Democracy: Iran http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2012/0302/Iran-trumpets-high-turnout-in-parliamentary-elections-video

Managing Democracy: Iran 2013 Presidential Elections June 14th, 2013 24 Possible Candidates The Guardian Council is not finished vetting the candidates Will Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei run?(Ahmadinejad’s chief of staff) Are they playing the Putin-Medvedev musical chairs game? Predicted to be a very close election… In 2000 = 80% turnout 2004 – 5400 candidates – 2500 DQ’d (including 80 sitting MP’s – not pious enough; or vocal against the SL) 4x as many as 2000 - turnout down to 50-55% 2008 – 2000 DQ’d of 4500 (90% of those were reformists) 2012 – 5400 candidates (2000 DQ’d – supports of Pres Ahmad & reformists) Turnout ??? The government claimed is was very high 90 minutes after the voting started on March 2

2005 Presidential Election 2009 Presidential Election Managing Democracy: Iran 2005 Presidential Election Rafsanjani: Rd 1 21%, Rd 35.9% Ahmadinejad: Rd 1 19.5%, Rd 2 61.7% 2009 Presidential Election Ahmadinejad: Rd 1 62.6% Mousavi: Rd 1 33.8% Cracks in the system? 2009 Green Movement 2005 Ahmadinejad was preferred by the SL (allegations of fraud) promised to fight for right to have Nuclear power; $$ to the poor, stand strong against the US (total of 5 candidates) 2009 Mousavi color was green (still on house arrest today) Gov’t announced winner 2 hours after the polls closed Widespread fraud – 2 districts had over 100% turnout! If the results were accurate Ahmadinejad would have had to won 45% of the Reformist vote to achieve the results Prostests started the next day June 13th, 2009 Gov’t crackdown – detained oaver 4000 - allegation of rape, torture – several died in prison Gov’t censorship of the media Shut down all cell towers, the internet/twitter Created a “Cyber Police” in 2009 – 250,000 employees to police the internet – China has 50,000 Neda Soltani died during the demonstrations – that is in the Hauss book

Managing Democracy: Iran Cracks in the system? 2009 Green Revolution

Managing Democracy: Iran Neda Soltani The Death of Neda Sholtani – 26yr old girl shot in the face while talking on her cell phone – images/footage all over youtube within minutes – the face of the movement Read http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jun/22/neda-soltani-death-iran Neda Soltani

Death in Tehran http://video.pbs.org/video/1334943049/