December 2017 Dynamic Position Analysis Modeling Assumptions

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Presentation transcript:

December 2017 Dynamic Position Analysis Modeling Assumptions The December 2017 Dynamic Position Analysis (DPA) simulation is based on historical climatic conditions spanning the period 1965-2005. This DPA posting is made with the South Florida Water Management Model (SFWMM) v6.7.4 which includes the following improvements: Improvements to Adaptive Protocols Improvements to releases from Water Conservation Areas to tide Improvements to WCA-1 and WCA-2 triggers for releases Improvements to C-4 canal discharges Improvements to S-197 operations The December 2017 DPA resets the initial stages for Lake Okeechobee (LOK) and the Water Conservation Areas (WCAs) on November 1st of each year of the DPA simulation and conditions the simulation to real time data during December to achieve real time stage on December 1st for LOK and WCAs. The Lake Okeechobee operations follow the Lake Okeechobee Regulation Schedule (LORS2008). Modeling assumptions are consistent with modeling performed for LORS2008 Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (SEIS). LOK Temporary Forward Pump operations will be in place, whenever necessary, to improve water supply deliveries from LOK under low LOK stages. STA surface area values are modified to reflect current flowways under operation. STA depths are maintained to a minimum of 6 inches using Lake Okeechobee releases. Lake Okeechobee Water Shortage Management (LOWSM) is included in the simulation which reflects the currently approved 40E-21 and 40E-22 water shortage rules. La Niña conditions are present and are predicted to continue (~65-75% chance) at least through the winter 2017-2018. DRAFT 12/6/2017

Modeling Assumptions Cont. The UK-OPS model is used for the simulation of the Upper Kissimmee Lakes and a rainfall-runoff regression model is used for the Lower Kissimmee Basin. UK_OPS Model assumptions for the 1_Dec_2017 PA Hydrology (lake inflows) based on historical/observed stage and flow data from DBHYDRO (same assumptions since Jan 2016) Regulation of Lakes Toho and East Lake Toho according to the standard Regulation Schedules with spring recession operations (slides 3-4). Recession ops start 24-Jan. Regulation of Lakes Kissimmee, Cypress and Hatch according to proposed operations to achieve desired dry season river flows, stage recession rate, and low chance of 31-May stage falling below elevation 48.5’ (slide 5). Rate of change limits for S-65 flows same as 11/16/2016/ revision. Temporary deviation to lower WCA3A stages Increased the capacity for S-197 Operations for structures in the SDCS made more consistent with Increment 1.1/1.2 Temporary deviation of WCA-2A schedule (slide 6) S-332C off Mar-Apr, rest of year running 2 units; S332BW closed Dec-Feb S343A&B increased pump capacity to account for temporary pumps on L-28 S343A&B, S12A&B and S344 open through December 31st L-29 Canal constraint 8.3 feet and no G-3273 constraint DRAFT 12/6/2017

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WCA-2A Schedule Deviation 12/6/2017 DRAFT

Dynamic Position Analysis Warm Up Period DPA Simulation SFWMM Start Date PA Start Date Dynamic Position Analysis (DPA) is PA exposed to recent climatic and inflow conditions which allows for a better representation of initial conditions. The period of such an exposure is called the Warm Up Period (WUP) preceding the PA Start Date. DPA simulation is done by South Florida Water Management Model (SFWMM) based on historical climatic conditions spanning the period 1965-2005. During each of the 41 years, the SFWMM initializes stages for Lake Okeechobee and the Water Conservation Areas on the Start Date of WUP. It then utilizes real-time NEXRAD rainfall, S65e inflow and other boundary flows through the WUP such that the simulated stages on PA Start Date are as close as possible to the corresponding real-time values on the PA Start Date. The WUP enables the SFWMM to flush out initial condition issues prior to the start of the PA Start Date Exposure to real time data during WUP reflects real time conditions and hence realistically represents memory persistence during the early days of DPA simulation. DPA by design allows for system’s projection on any day of the month (not just the first day). DPA significantly improves the turnaround time of production. DRAFT 12/6/2017

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* Please be aware that the SFWMM calibration for this gage has a positive bias of approximately 0.4 ft. 11/7/2018 DRAFT

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