North Down Project: Preliminary Findings Neil Rowland (Research Fellow, QUB) & Deborah Hyden (Research Fellow, QUB)

Acknowledgements The help provided by the staff of the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study (NILS) and the NILS Research Support Unit is acknowledged. The NILS is funded by the Health and Social Care Research and Development Division of the Public Health Agency (HSC R&D Division) and NISRA. The NILS-RSU is funded by the ESRC and the Northern Ireland Government. The authors alone are responsible for the interpretation of the data and any views or opinions presented are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of NISRA/NILS

Genesis of Project North Down Community Network submitted the following question to the QUB Science Shop: “Carry out research using NI Census information to develop profiles of particular areas within North Down and help identify unmet needs and the degree of resource allocation and investment per area.” Why undertake this project? Development of omnibus NILS projects for students writing a dissertation One way to expand NILS user base and widen engagement to third sector This project is a pilot

QUB Science Shop Joint initiative between Queen’s University Belfast (QUB) and University of Ulster. It links community organisations/groups and QUB staff/students through course- based research projects and dissertations Involves students undertaking research with real impact And provides a real benefit to third sector groups

Past Science Shop Projects Newry & Mourne Your carers Group Recommended support needed to develop coping skills in young carers Examining productivity in Bryson Recycling And much more: https://www.qub.ac.uk/sites/ScienceShop/CaseStudies/ NILS could contribute to these success stories Some examples of the work completed 1) Project by a psychology student looking at ways to support young carers 2) The effects of climate change on the bee population – and you can find out about other successful projects on the Science shop website – But today we’re focusing on our own NILS Project for the North Down Community network

North Down We study the area within 2011 Assembly Area boundaries: Reputation as a place of affluence – “Haves and Have-Yachts” However

Background: Levels of Deprivation by SOA (2017) There are pockets of deprivation – Two of the SOAs in North Down are in the second decile for deprivation in Northern Ireland Harbour_1 & Conlig-3. MDM use 7 domains: income, employment, health and disability, education, service access, living environment, crime.

Who does this project focus on? NDCM targets some of its resources/interventions towards young people We therefore look at: Young children/adults currently living in North Down (as of April 2017) All aged 6-24 in April 2017 Most were living in North Down, but some lived elsewhere There are many things we could learn about this specific group

Aim of Analysis Ideally we would like to know how many young people with health problems in each area of North Down We face data limitations, however, even with the 28% NILS sample We can learn much from the NILS, however: How many young people are in North Down in April 2017 What sort of family background they had at 2011 Census

Analysis Part 1 – Understanding risk factors Among an earlier cohort (aged 10-28 in 2011), understand the characteristics of those who report of a health problem at 2011 Census Specifically, what were their characteristics in 2001, when they were aged 0-18? Living in a single-parent household? Living in a ‘deprived’ household? Are they male or female? Catholic or Protestant? Have they recently moved to North Down?

Analysis Part 2 – Mapping risk factors 2. Our target cohort was aged 0-18 in 2011 – What sort of background do they have at this Census? We know their address in 2017, so this informs us about which areas have the most young people ‘at risk’ of certain health problems Suggests where resources may be best targeted Of course there are assumptions underlying this approach

Part 1: Relationship between Health and Background (Brief Results)

Which factors observed in 2001 predicted a health problem in 2011? Outcome: Predictors: These figures were then applied to the 2011 data to make predictions for 2017. And when plotted against 2017 measures of income deprivation in the North Down SOAs – this is what we found

Males have a higher probability of reporting a mental health problem in 2011 And this gender gap persists across all age groups in the 6-24 year old cohort. (Note, although expected mental health problems increases with age, this is not statistically significant – and is presented for illustration purposes only. Source: Author’s analysis (NILS)

Part 2: Background of young people living in ND in 2017 (Preliminary Results)

Percentage from a ‘deprived’ household in 2011 We have evidence of geographical variation in levels of household deprivation in 2011 for our sample. Deprived in 1 or more domains (up to 5). Source: Author’s analysis (NILS)

Percentage from a household without two parents in 2011 Maps the percentage of cohort two not in a two-parent household. Again clear evidence of geographical variation in way that we would expect. Note that some SOAs are not mapped due to disclosure issues. Source: Author’s analysis (NILS)

Findings so far Level of deprivation in ND are low overall – but this is not the case everywhere NILS allows us to study a specific group of people, model the mechanisms, and present an up-to-date picture Limited by sample size and other caveats, however – conclusions are tentative Nevertheless, we can point to: Mental health problems being more common among males All age groups may benefit Certain areas (e.g. Conlig 3) have high proportions of ‘deprived’ households

General Conclusion and Next Steps More analysis to be carried out Other untested factors might have had stronger predictive power Important to discuss findings with NDCM to understand their implications This study is an example of a potential course-based research project that could be undertaken Not all research questions would require a NILS project, however