Align Project Risk Assessment

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Presentation transcript:

Align Project Risk Assessment

Estimating Risk There are many elements of risk Process technical Mechanical availability Delivery Environmental Regulatory Market Geopolitical Financial Etc. During the brainstorming phase, all potential risk areas should be considered!

We take a step by step approach What can go wrong? We take a step by step approach What is the probability? What is the potential impact if we do nothing? What can we do about it? If we act on ideas, what is the new probability? What is the probable impact now? What is the overall project risk profile? Do the brainstorming by process or discipline areas

What is the Contribution of a unit of production? What is our cumulative interest expense versus time? What is our WACC? What special costs might be incurred if we delay start-up by one week? One month? Two months? Build the Impact Sensitivity table above in order to properly set priorities of risk.

Method, using the Align Risk Management Tool Brainstorm all Risks, no numbers, just list them. Go back, estimate the probability and impact factors of each Risk if we did nothing. Sort, work on highest priority risks Go back, in more detail, estimate each Risk in terms of time and money. Go back, and develop actions that will reduce the probability and or impact of each high priority Risk. Estimate the new lower probability and impact for each Risk if we completed all actions.

Tracking the Risk Profile $$ Unmitigated Risk Mitigated Risk Through actions we lower the risk profile During the life of the project. The benefit of a good risk program is to develop actions to manage and lower these risks. Time