A Global Tropical Cyclone Climatology: Revisiting Gray (1968, 1979)

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A Global Tropical Cyclone Climatology: Revisiting Gray (1968, 1979) Phil Klotzbach Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University February 7, 2017 Co-Authors: Brian Brettschneider, Ethan Gibney, Carl Schreck, Michael Bell, William Gray (Deceased)

In Memory of Bill Gray (1929-2016)

Outline Data Occurrence of Global Tropical Cyclone (TC) Activity Revisitation of Gray TC Genesis Parameters ENSO’s Impacts on Global TC Activity Summary

Data Sources Tropical Cyclone Data (1985-2014) Historical best-track data from the National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and Joint Typhoon Warning Center as archived in the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship - SST – NOAA Optimum Interpolation SST version 2 Large-scale atmosphere conditions – Climate Forecast System Reanalysis

Comparison between Gray (1968) and 1985-2014 Climatology

15-day Running Mean Applied

Gray (1968) 1985-2014

Named Storm Tracks (1985-2014)

Hurricane Track Density (1985-2014)

El Niño minus La Niña Accumulated Cyclone Energy Generation (1985-2014)

El Niño minus La Niña

El Niño minus La Niña

El Niño minus La Niña

Summary Global TC numbers have increased from pioneering genesis study of Gray (1968), primarily due to observational improvements - No significant trend in TC number or intensity over past 30 years Northern Hemisphere TC season much more peaked than Southern Hemisphere TC season

Summary (Continued) Densest regions for hurricane activity are just east of Philippines and in eastern portion of Northeast Pacific Gray’s original TC genesis parameters still valid ENSO significantly impacts basinwide TC levels (El Niño increases TC activity in the Northwest Pacific, Northeast Pacific and South Pacific, while La Niña increases TC activity in the North Atlantic, North Indian Ocean and near Australia)