Projections of EC GHG emissions 2008-2012 &file 07/11/2018 Projections of EC GHG emissions 2008-2012 Brussels, 29 September 2006 Dr. Erasmia Kitou DG ENV Unit C.1 ‘Climate strategy, International Negotiations and Monitoring of EU Action’

Outline Actual and projected emissions Sectoral trends Role of major EU directives Indicative greenhouse gas trends

2006 Commission Progress Report &file 07/11/2018 2006 Commission Progress Report Information submitted by June 6th, 2006 Main source of information: 4th National Communications, Reports on Demonstrable Progress Publication of report: October 2006 PRELIMINARY findings… Sources: primarily 4NC, DPR; no updates for MS with no new projections; in absence of 4NC/DPR: national CC programs, official submissions to EC MS commenting round complete, comments now being incorporated as far as possible. Comments on Country Profiles for X, X and X . General nature of comments:

The EU’s Kyoto challenge until 2012 &file 07/11/2018 The EU’s Kyoto challenge until 2012

Need to strengthen domestic action – 1.6 % -1.6 % -5.2 % – 5.2 %

Projection weaknesses Reasons for change: Underestimated emission growth, particularly in the transport and energy sectors Overestimated effectiveness of emission reduction policies Removal of “with additional measures” scenario Adjustment of base year Revised emission factors

CO2 emissions projected for 2020

Sectoral trends: 1990-2004/1990-2010

EU15: Need for new innovative measures &file 07/11/2018 EU15: Need for new innovative measures CCPM: “definition…. Estimated to account for x Mt of PAM savings (X%) e.g. Of CCPMs from CCPM matrix Source of Oeko data Addition of extra CCPM; no data on Energy end-use and energy services Directive yet Compare savings to last year’s Source: ECCP PAMs database (Oeko)

Energy and Transport responsible for rising CO2 emissions

EU-15 CH4 emissions

Conclusions Transport and energy sectors continues to be the major problem in tackling GHG emissions Despite existing and planned efforts CO2 emissions are on the rise (energy and transport main culprits) Relatively positive trends observed in terms of other GHG emissions Climate policies contribution to reduction of other air pollutants uncertain Planned policies and measures cannot provide adequate reductions? Swift and efficient implementation of existing and additional measures needed to reach Kyoto target and achieve reduction of other air pollutants Need for uniform reporting of projected emissions

http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/gge.htm

EU 15 / EU 25:Projected Progress With Kyoto mechanisms 1990/base year Mt CO2 eq. 2010 %Change 1990-2010 Aggregate of EU-15 MS with measures projections 4269.4 4132.9 -3.2% Aggregate of EU-15 MS with additional measures projections 3961.1 -7.2% Aggregate of EU-25 MS with measures projections 5294.2 4938.7 -7.0% Aggregate of EU-25 MS with additional measures projections 4756.7 -10.2%

With existing measures &file 07/11/2018 With existing measures With additional measures With all measures and KMs With all measures and KMs and carbon sinks Figure 4.3 Relative gaps (over-delivery or shortfall) between greenhouse gas projections based on domestic policies and measures and 2010[1] targets for EU-15 Member States including the effects of Kyoto mechanisms and net emissions and removals from carbon sinks. Note: All EU-15 Member States provided projections assuming existing domestic policies and measures. Several countries provided projections with additional domestic policies and measures. The effect of the Kyoto mechanisms is shown separately for the ten countries that intend to use them for reaching their target data. For more information see Chapter 7. Projections for Spain are available for CO2 only. Data on the net effect of emissions and removals from carbon sinks under Article 3.3 and 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol were provided by ten countries and were considered where available. Adjustments of the reduction target due to Article 3.7 were performed for Portugal, UK and the Netherlands. Source: EEA. [1] In the Council decision (2002/358/EC) on the approval by the EU of the Kyoto Protocol the various commitments of the Member States are expressed as percentage changes from the base-year. In 2006 the respective emission levels will be expressed in terms of tonnes of CO2-equivalents.

Domestic measures help curb CH4 emissions

EU-15: Limited effect of additional measures &file 07/11/2018 EU-15: Limited effect of additional measures savings reported by MS. Savings from PAMs by sector in 2010 against a theoretical ‘no measures’ base line considering savings from policies and measures implemented since 1990. Only those reported are shown, therefore not comprehensive nor in line with WM or WAM projections figures. Most savings in X and X sectors Compared to 2005 figures for PAM savings by sector 20 less for WM and 60 less for WAM however no monitoring mechanism this year. Data source: 4NC or latest projections as of June 6th

EU-10 quantified savings from PAMs &file 07/11/2018 EU-10 quantified savings from PAMs Significant change compared to 2005 reported savings Data source: 4NC or latest projections as of June 6th

EU-15 N2O emissions