Map Review 2017 02 07 Richard Grotjahn

Differential PVA over LA, KY, IL Differential PVA over Dakotas into western Great Lakes Possible PVA over ID and western WY

WAA: Eastern Great lakes south ward, almost to gulf coast. WAA: off west coast, maybe on shore. Cold front from MI to east TX, warm front from MI to just S of Cape Cod. Harder to spot front in west, comes onshore near OR/CA border.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SATANL/anim.html

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SATANL/anim.html

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/RADNWS_US/floop_rad.html

Higher CAPE over lower Ms river valley up into IL Higher CAPE over lower Ms river valley up into IL. A little west of a plume of moisture. AR extending towards SF Bay area.

LCH morning sounding

Between 12z and ‘now’: Satellite loops IR: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SATANL/anim.html http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis.php?image=ir&inv=0&t=cur&region=we TPW http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/epac/main.html

‘current’ conditions http://hint.fm/wind/ Shows convergence http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/index_lite.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/RADNWS_US/floop_rad.html http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx http://hint.fm/wind/ Shows convergence & upslope regions

New Orleans, 7 Feb 2017

NAM/AVN 6hr P (12hr) performance  Imagine the transition between the obs radar maps (upper pair) Vs The 6 hr totals for two models below. GFS has band in NW OR that NAM misses. NAM has too much in N. CA & GFS a bit better. So, maybe GFS slightly better with storm in the west coast. Both models do ok we N. Rockies upslope. GFS too much in LA, NAM better there. But GFS has SC that NAM misses. NAM – 6 hr total GFS – 6hr total

The End

Notes Differential PVA over LA, KY, IL Differential PVA over Dakotas into western Great Lakes Possible PVA over ID and western WY WAA: Eastern Great lakes south ward, almost to gulf coast. WAA: off west coast, maybe on shore. Cold front from MI to east TX, warm front from MI to just S of Cape Cod. Harder to spot front in west, comes onshore near OR/CA border. Higher CAPE over lower Ms river valley up into IL. A little west of a plume of moisture. AR extending towards SF Bay area.