Water Year 2013: Current Conditions and Early Season Outlook in the Colorado River Basin CRFS November 14, 2012.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop

Advertisements

Winter Climate Forecast Kyle Dittmer Hydrologist-Meteorologist Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission Portland, Oregon November 17th, 2012.

4. What is the boundary between two drainage basins called?

Influence of Meteorological Factors on Electric Energy Consumption and Use of Meteorological Data and Forecasts for the Planning of the Power System Operations.

1 Developing objective climate drought monitoring and prediction – A CTB project Kingtse Mo Team Leader Drought NIDIS.

CBRFC May 2014 Water Supply Webinar May 6, 2014 Greg Smith These slides:

Animas River Current Conditions (as of 5/3/13)  Review snow conditions and seasonal precipitation  Comparison of daily flows along the Animas River 

CBRFC Peak Flow Forecast Webinar April 9th, 2014 Greg Smith & Ashley Nielson These slides: Presentation are available.

Brian McInerney Hydrologist National Weather Service Hydrologic Outlook April 2006.

Northwest River Forecast Center Seasonal Volume Outlook Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2012 Water Year Steve King, Sr. Hydrologist Northwest.

California and Nevada Drought is extreme to exceptional.

2015 SPRING FIRE POTENTIAL OUTLOOK EASTERN AREA PREDICTIVE SERVICES.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental.

Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2008 Water Year Ray Fukunaga, Senior Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.

Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources: streamflow, reservoir, and hydropower forecasts for the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood and Alan Hamlet.

Hydrologic Predictability and Water Year 2009 Predictions in the Columbia River Basin Andy Wood Matt Wiley Bart Nijssen Climate and Water Resource Forecasts.

Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2007 Water Year Kevin Berghoff, Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.

Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources in the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood Alan Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental.

Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2007 Water Year Steve King, Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.

Hydrologic Outlook for the Pacific Northwest in Water Year 2008 Andy Wood Xiaodong Zeng and George Thomas Alan Hamlet and Dennis Lettenmaier Dept. of Civil.

NWS ~ NorthWest River Forecast Center Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2006 Water Year Kevin Berghoff, Hydrologist.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental.

Recap of Water Year 2007 Hydrologic Forecast and Forecasts for Water Year 2008 Alan F. Hamlet Andrew W. Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts.

Evaluating the Influence of Precipitation, Temperature, and Soil Moisture on Upper Colorado River Basin Streamflow and Drought Connie Woodhouse, University.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Seethu Babu Marketa McGuire Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the Department of Civil Engineering University.

Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources: streamflow, reservoir, and hydropower forecasts for the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood and Alan Hamlet.

Recap of Water Year 2009 Hydrologic Forecast and Forecasts for Water Year 2010 Francisco Munoz-Arriola Alan F. Hamlet Shraddhanand Shukla Dennis P. Lettenmaier.

Hydrologic outlook for the Pacific Northwest in Water Year 2008 Andy Wood Xiaodong Zeng and George Thomas Alan Hamlet and Dennis Lettenmaier Dept. of Civil.

Recap of Water Year 2009 Hydrologic Forecast and Forecasts for Water Year 2010 Francisco Munoz-Arriola Alan F. Hamlet Shraddhanand Shukla Dennis P. Lettenmaier.

CBRFC April 2014 Water Supply Webinar April 7, 2014 Greg Smith These slides:

CBRFC March 2014 Water Supply Webinar March 6, 2014 Greg Smith These slides:

CBRFC April 2013 Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11 am, April 18, 2013 Greg Smith & Ashley Nielson These slides:

2011 Peak Flows and Daily Forecasts CBRFC 2011 Stakeholder Forum November 3, 2011.

CRFS November 20, CBRFC Model Soil Moisture November 1, 2013 SEP-DEC PRECIPITATION.

CRFS November 20, JUL-SEP PRECIPITATION Good monsoon - except San Juan… September 2014 not quite as wet as 2013, but close! Precipitation above.

CRFS March 30, Virgin River NWS-SWS: 90 NWS-ESP: (+8-15% El Nino weighted) NRCS daily: 80 NRCS statistical: 78 Coordinated: 80 / 195% median.

CBRFC April 2014 CUWCD Briefing/Meeting 1:30pm April 8, 2014 Ashley Nielson.

Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop Des Moines, IA – March 3, 2011 Andy Wood NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Also: John Schaake,

Southwest Hydrometeorology Symposium Tempe, AZ September 28, 2011 Kevin Werner NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center : A Year of Extremes.

Drought in California How Did We Get Here and What Can We Expect This Year? November 7th 2014 APWA Sacramento Chapter Meeting Alan Haynes Service Coordination.

National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 21 JuLY 2015.

Overview of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Lisa Holts.

Water Year 2012: Review of Water Supply Forecasts in the Colorado River Basin CRFS November 14, 2012.

CBRFC Postmortem Analysis on June 2010 flooding in UT and CO.

2012 Wildfire Season Outlook. “Recent” Wildfire History Winter – VERY DRY followed by the Summer 2002 – Colorado Hayman Fire Coal Seam Fire.

CBRFC March Peak Flow Forecast Webinar March 11, 2014 Greg Smith & Brenda Alcorn These slides: Presentation.

CRFS Technical Meeting LC Operations Update March 29, 2011.

Water Year 2009 Forecast Review: Green River Basin CRFS November 19, 2009.

CRFS November 20, Green River Basin Upper Green  Near record February precipitation  Large increases in forecasts on March 1  Much above average.

Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center Predictive Services Winter of Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook Monday December 7.

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center and Drought Related Forecasts Kevin Werner.

1 Understanding Sources of Error and Uncertainty NOAA’S COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER.

CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides:

Hydrologic Forecasting Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of.

CBRFC April 2010 Water Supply Webinar 10am, May 7, 2010 Kevin Werner These slides: PLEASE MUTE YOUR PHONES.

CBRFC April 2011 Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 1pm, April 7, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides:

Recent Forecasts, Updates, and the Path Ahead W. Paul Miller Senior Hydrologist Colorado Basin River Forecast Center April 17th, 2013 NOAA’s National Weather.

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Greg Smith Senior Hydrologist National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center January 25, 2011 Navajo.

Water Year 2011: Review of Conditions and Forecasts in the Colorado River Basin CRFS November 8, 2011.

1 Hydrological Regime of the Mekong River Hydrological Regime of the Mekong basin depends on climatic conditions of the wet and dry seasons. High water.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Salt Lake City, Utah 11 The Hydrologic.

Upper Rio Grande R Basin

Andrew Wood, Ali Akanda, Dennis Lettenmaier

Challenges in western water management: What can science offer?

UW Civil and Environmental Engineering

Hydrologic Forecasting

Alan F. Hamlet Andrew W. Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier

ENSO and Climate Outlook, May 2017:

Presentation transcript:

Water Year 2013: Current Conditions and Early Season Outlook in the Colorado River Basin CRFS November 14, 2012

Water Year 2013: Entering the Season (what we know now): Coming off one of worst runoff years - Soil Moisture (not good) - Baseflow (not good) ENSO Neutral Conditions (no help) October: Another dry month - Upper Green River Basin near normal November: Not great so far…

CBRFC Model Soil Moisture 11/1/12 USGS Monthly Average Streamflow October 2012 (includes regulated flows)

Base flows East River at Almont, CO Animas River at Durango, CO Yampa River at Steamboat Springs, CO Green at Warren Bridge, WY

Regulated Flows Forecast Volumes

ENSO Neutral Sources: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov and iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO

CPC Forecasts (10/18)

Nov. 13, Day Precipitation Total Gage/Radar Mosaic Nov. 13, Day Precipitation Percent Normal

November 13, 2012

% Current Average % Seasonal Peak Upper Green727 Yampa/White587 Duchesne11315 Upper Colorado547 Gunnison588 Dolores637 San Juan7010

November Precipitation Forecasts

Early Season ESP