Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018 11/8/2018 Challenges and Opportunities in Achieving the National Postsecondary Degree Attainment Goals Equity & Excellence Project (EEP) Meeting Washington, DC May 7, 2018 Michael T. Nettles Ph.D., Senior Vice-President, ETS

Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018 Today’s Presentation What are the degree attainment goals? Why do the attainment goals matter? How many more degrees do we need to reach the goals? When is the population projected to achieve the goals? What can we do to accelerate progress? Copyright © 2018 by Educational Testing Service. All rights reserved. ETS, the ETS logo and MEASURING THE POWER OF LEARNING, are registered trademarks of Educational Testing Service (ETS).

National Degree Attainment Goals Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018 11/8/2018 National Degree Attainment Goals Federal Government By 2020 60% of 25 to 34 year olds will have earned an associate’s or bachelor’s degree Set in 2009 Lumina Foundation By 2025 60% of 25 to 64 year olds will have earned a high-quality postsecondary degree or credential

Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018 Equity and Excellence Project (EEP) State Postsecondary Goals Slight Variations by Percentage, Age Cohort, and Target Year State Postsecondary Goal Colorado Increase the number of Coloradans aged 25-34 who hold high-quality postsecondary credentials (degrees or certificates) to 66% by 2025 as well as reduce attainment gaps among students from underserved communities Florida 55% of Floridians ages 25-64 to hold a degree or postsecondary certificate by the year 2025.  Illinois 60% of 25-64 year olds will have a college degree by 2025 Indiana Increase higher education attainment of adults to 60% of Indiana’s population by 2025 Kentucky Increase educational attainment level of Kentuckians between 25- 64 years old with certificates or degrees to 58% by 2025 Louisiana Increase educational attainment of adult citizens (bachelor’s and associate degrees, and certificates and diplomas) to 42% by 2025, with an annual growth rate of 7.2% Source: Lumina Foundation and State websites.

State Postsecondary Goals (continued) Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018 State Postsecondary Goals (continued) State Postsecondary Goal Massachusetts 60% of adults ages 25-64 have an associate or bachelor's degree by 2025 Minnesota Increase to at least 70% by 2025 the number of Minnesota residents ages 25-44 years who hold postsecondary degrees or certificates Ohio 65% of working age Ohioans with a postsecondary certificate or degree by 2025 New York Use Lumina goal: 60% of 25-64 year olds will have earned a high-quality postsecondary degree or credential by 2025 Pennsylvania 60% of Pennsylvanians with a postsecondary degree or credential by 2025 Tennessee “Drive to 55” – 55% of Tennesseans earning an associate’s degree or higher by 2025 Texas “60x30TX” - By 2030, at least 60% of Texans ages 25-34 will have a certificate or degree Wisconsin “60 Forward” –Increase Wisconsin’s postsecondary attainment rate to 60% by 2027 Source: Lumina Foundation and state websites.

Why do the attainment goals matter? Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018 Why do the attainment goals matter?

Where We Start Group U.S. 25-34 Year-old Population Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018 11/8/2018 Where We Start Group U.S. 25-34 Year-old Population (Federal) Degree Attainment Rate (2014) U.S. 25-64 Year-old Population (Lumina) Degree Attainment Rate (2014) Overall Population 42.3 40.4 African American 29.0 29.3 Amer. Indian/Alaskan Native 21.0 23.6 Asian 68.4 60.8 Hispanic 21.9 21.1 White 49.6 45.7 Source: American Community Survey, 2014 ACS, IPUMS Online Tabulator: https://usa.ipums.org/usa/ Note: American Indian/Alaska Native data not available in Maryland due to small sample size.

Why College Degrees Matter Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018 Why College Degrees Matter 11/8/2018 Overall Unemployment Representation Declines with College Degree Attainment Group Total Unemployment Rate 25-34 year olds Rate with High School Diploma or Equivalent, 25-34 year olds Rate with Bachelor's degree, 25-34 year olds U.S. Population 5.5 (100) 8.1 (100) 2.7 (100) African American 11.1 (25.2) 14.9 (29.2) 4.5 (14.8) Asian 3.6 (4.4) 4.7 (2.2) 3.2 (11.3) Hispanic 6.3 (22.6) 7.5 (23.9) 3.5 (13.2) White 4.1 (43.7) 6.2 (40) 2.3 (58.8) Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Using 2015 Current Population Survey (Unpublished).

How many more degrees to reach the goals? Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018 How many more degrees to reach the goals?

What Will It Take to Reach 60%? Federal Goal (25-34 year olds by 2020) Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018 11/8/2018 What Will It Take to Reach 60%? Federal Goal (25-34 year olds by 2020) Group Current population Current number of degrees Percentage of increase needed to reach goal Projected degrees required U.S. Population 43,279,253 18,303,530 53.7% 28,133,962 African American 5,665,337 1,641,948 141.8% 3,970,801 Men 2,705,664 632,967 212.8% 1,979,791 Women 2,959,673 1,008,981 97.3% 1,991,011 Amer. Ind./Alask. Nat 285,226 59,806 281.2% 227,974 141,407 24,770 368.3% 115,998 143,735 35,036 219.6% 111,976 Asian 2,875,013 1,967,630 - 1,364,706 903,830 1,510,307 1,063,800 Hispanic 8,448,047 1,850,721 222.2% 5,963,548 4,423,827 803,988 295.0% 3,175,436 4,024,220 1,046,733 166.4% 2,788,111 White 24,638,335 12,217,260 24.2% 15,172,409 12,466,227 5,513,330 40.0% 7,720,028 12,172,108 6,703,930 11.2% 7,452,380 Data are from U.S. Census Bureau; 2025 population is from National Population Projections 2014, Table 1, https://www.census.gov/population/projections/data/national/2014/downloadablefiles.html; American Community Survey 2014, IPUMS Online Tabulator, https://usa.ipums.org/usa/.

What Will it Take to Reach 60%? Lumina Goal (25-64 year olds by 2025) Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018 11/8/2018 What Will it Take to Reach 60%? Lumina Goal (25-64 year olds by 2025) Group Current Population Current number of degrees Percentage of increase needed to reach goal Projected degrees required U.S. Population 167,593,630 67,741,740 55.6% 37,656,718 African American 20,625,035 6,045,664 125.0% 7,555,699 Men 9,677,566 2,391,462 173.3% 4,143,667 Women 10,947,469 3,654,199 93.4% 3,412,033 Amer. Ind./Alask. Nat 1,085,821 256,707 200.6% 514,971 526,029 106,434 258.9% 275,534 559,792 150,273 159.3% 239,437 Asian 9,915,284 6,025,788 - 4,614,565 2,824,398 5,300,719 3,201,390 Hispanic 26,294,580 5,550,903 280.4% 15,565,478 13,360,946 2,467,322 344.7% 8,505,187 12,933,634 3,083,581 229.0% 7,060,291 White 105,869,394 48,371,917 23.6% 11,428,078 52,737,247 22,530,188 33.1% 7,451,984 53,132,147 25,841,729 15.4% 3,976,094 Data are from U.S. Census Bureau; 2020 population is from National Population Projections 2014, Table 1, https://www.census.gov/population/projections/data/national/2014/downloadablefiles.html; American Community Survey 2014, IPUMS Online Tabulator, https://usa.ipums.org/usa/.

When is the population projected to achieve the goals? Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018 When is the population projected to achieve the goals? U.S. and Profiles of Maryland, New York & Indiana

Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018 Overall The Nation Will Reach 60% by 2041, Some Race/Ethnic Groups Will Not Reach the Goal in the Foreseeable Future Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018 11/8/2018 Progress Towards The Federal Government’s Goal (25-34 Year-olds) Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2020 and 2025 Population are from National Population Projections 2014: Downloadable Files, Table 1. Retrieved 06/24/2015 from https://www.census.gov/population/projections/data/national/2014/downloadablefiles.html Source: American Community Survey, 2014 ACS, IPUMS Online Tabulator: https://usa.ipums.org/usa/

Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018 The Nation Will Reach 60% by 2056, Some Race/Ethnic Groups Will Not Reach the Goal in the Foreseeable Future Progress Towards Lumina Foundation’s Goal (25-64 Year-olds) 65% 65% ETS Research Report Series 14 AUG 2017 DOI: 10.1002/ets2.12141 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ets2.12141/full#ets212141-fig-0007

State Level Degree Attainment Projection: Maryland Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018 State Level Degree Attainment Projection: Maryland Population Projections Available by Race/Ethnicity

Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018 U.S. Projected to Increase at a Much Faster Rate than Maryland Progress Towards MD’s 55% by 2025 Goal (25-64 Year-olds) Sources: U.S. degree attainment projections derived from the 2014 American Community Survey and U.S. Census Bureau Population Projections. Maryland degree attainment projections derived from 2015 American Community Survey and Maryland Department of Planning, Projections and State Data Center: http://www.mdp.state.md.us/msdc/S3_Projection.shtml Notes: Maryland population projections are available in 5 year increments (2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040), therefore population totals were estimated for years in which data were not available.

Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018 MD Progress Toward 55% Degree Attainment by 2025: Some Race/Ethnic Groups Will Not Reach the Goal in the Foreseeable Future (25-64 Year-olds) Percent Sources: U.S. degree attainment projections derived from the 2014 American Community Survey and U.S. Census Bureau Population Projections Maryland degree attainment projections derived from 2015 American Community Survey and Maryland Department of Planning, Projections and State Data Center: http://www.mdp.state.md.us/msdc/S3_Projection.shtml Notes: Maryland population projections are available in 5 year increments (2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040), therefore population totals were estimated for years in which data were not available.

Younger Generation in Maryland is Losing Ground Compared to the U.S. Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018 11/8/2018 Younger Generation in Maryland is Losing Ground Compared to the U.S. Source: American Community Survey, 2014 ACS, IPUMS Online Tabulator: https://usa.ipums.org/usa/ Note: American Indian/Alaska Native data not available in Maryland due to small sample size.

State Level Degree Attainment Projection: New York Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018 State Level Degree Attainment Projection: New York Only Aggregate State Population Projections Available

Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018 Overall New York Will Reach 60% by 2026 Progress Towards Federal Goal (25-34 Year-olds) Sources: U.S. degree attainment projections derived from the 2014 American Community Survey and U.S. Census Bureau Population Projections. New York degree attainment projections derived from 2016 American Community Survey and New York Department of Labor: https://labor.ny.gov/stats/nys/statewide-population-data.shtm Notes: New York overall population projections are available in 5 year increments (2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040), therefore population totals were estimated for years in which data were not available. Projections by subpopulations are not available. U.S. Population Degree Attainment Projections used 2006-2014 time horizons, while NY use 2006-2016 time horizons.

Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018 Overall New York Will Reach 60% by 2036 Progress Towards Lumina Foundation’s Goal (25-64 Year-olds) Sources: U.S. degree attainment projections derived from the 2014 American Community Survey and U.S. Census Bureau Population Projections. New York degree attainment projections derived from 2016 American Community Survey and New York Department of Labor: https://labor.ny.gov/stats/nys/statewide-population-data.shtm Notes: New York overall population projections are available in 5 year increments (2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040), therefore population totals were estimated for years in which data were not available. Projections by subpopulations are not available. U.S. Population Degree Attainment Projections used 2006-2014 time horizons, while NY use 2006-2016 time horizons.

Indiana Degree Attainment 2016 Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018 Indiana Degree Attainment 2016 No Projection: State Data not Disaggregated by Race/Ethnicity or Modeled Age Cohort

Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018 11/8/2018 Younger Generation in Indiana is Losing Ground Compared to the U.S. (2016) Age Cohort U.S Overall Degree Attainment Indiana U.S. White Pop. Attainment White Pop Attainment African American Pop. Attainment Asian Pop. Attainment Hispanic Pop. Attainment 25-34 44.0% 39.8% 51.0% 43.0% 30.3% 22.7% 70.8% 62.5% 24.5% 21.4% 35-44 44.4% 41.2% 51.4% 43.7% 34.9% 32.9% 68.7% 53.4% 22.4% 22.9% Cohort Gap -0.4% -1.4% -0.8% -4.6% -10.2% 2.1% 9.1% -1.5% 45-54 40.7% 36.5% 45.8% 38.0% 30.6% 29.7% 57.5% 56.3% 21.6% 17.0% 55-64 31.9% 41.7% 32.8% 27.0% 24.2% 48.3% 56.8% 20.3% 14.9% Source: American Community Survey, 2016 ACS, IPUMS Online Tabulator: https://usa.ipums.org/usa/

Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018 What Can We Do? My Suggestions

Develop Agenda To Accelerate Degree Attainment Progress Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018 11/8/2018 Develop Agenda To Accelerate Degree Attainment Progress Continue work to close achievement gaps Racial and socio-economic status (SES) disparities in academic achievement persist Advocate for disaggregated data, so that gaps can be identified and monitored

What Can We Do? Develop Agenda (Cont.) Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018 11/8/2018 What Can We Do? Develop Agenda (Cont.) Focus on college stop-outs 36 million individuals have some college, but no degree 34.7% of total population enrolling in 4-year colleges and universities do not complete a bachelor’s degree in 6 years Increase enrollment of recent high school graduates Nationally, 66% of high school graduates enter a 2 or 4-year college within a year of high school graduation

What Can We Do? Develop Agenda (Cont.) Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018 11/8/2018 What Can We Do? Develop Agenda (Cont.) Raise preparation to match high expectations of K-12 students 62% of 9th graders overall indicate that they expect to earn at least an associate’s degree Need to improve college preparation (next report) Federal and state governments can create matching funds for colleges that serve underrepresented populations for these purposes: Strengthening faculty Providing student scholarships Build infrastructure to support mission and growth

Elevating Student Achievement Through College Series Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018 11/8/2018 Elevating Student Achievement Through College Series Part I Part II Part III

Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018 11/8/2018 Conversation mnettles@ets.org www.ets.org/achievementgap Copyright © 2018 by Educational Testing Service. All rights reserved. ETS, the ETS logo and MEASURING THE POWER OF LEARNING, are registered trademarks of Educational Testing Service (ETS).