SHAPE J9 Projecting Stability Introduction by ACOS J9 SHAPE, BG Tonin Marku NATO UNCLASSIFIED

Community of interest Conference COIC in Rome Pleasant – “la citta eterna “ Necessary – J9 community 360 degree mode – East-South , D/D – PS Sirs, colleagues, ladies and gentlemen, Introduction and thanks As I am speaking for the first time to this conference as Assistant Chief of Staff J9 at SHAPE, I would like to say thank you to the organizers of the Centre of Excellence this Community of Interest Conference, which is both a pleasant and a necessary event. • Pleasant, because the J9 community is always a happy one! Certainly if it can come together in the beautiful surroundings of Rome, “la citta eterna”. • It is necessary, because as a community we can in the coming days proof that the J9 community is truly working a 360 degrees mode. Working not only on the challenges from the East, but also from the South. Working not only on defence and deterrence, but also on Projecting Stability. So I think I can speak for all here, if I thank our Dean, František Mičánek and Director CCOE Colonel Paulik, thank you for having us here today. Colonel Hofmaier, also thanks go to you and your team for the hard work that went into this conference. You have offered us a truly great program. NATO UNCLASSIFIED

Foreign Ministers 'decision to the South The Alliance’s strengthened Deterrence and Defence posture; The Alliance’s contribution to the Fight against Terrorism; The Alliance’s Projecting Stability efforts. Introduction This meeting comes timely. Only as a few weeks ago, the latest NATO Foreign Ministers Meeting on 27 April in Brussels, it was concluded to that NATO should develop a more strategic and focussed approach to the challenges the South. I am sure others will go into more detail on these challenges, which range from diverse causes as conventional warfare, the proliferation and use of WMD, as well as mass migration and many, many others. I will limit myself to quote the ministers’ decision that NATO’s approach to the South needs to have a comprehensive, multifaceted approach, which cuts across three interconnected and mutually reinforcing areas: • The Alliance’s strengthened Deterrence and Defence posture; • The Alliance’s contribution to the Fight against Terrorism; and, last but not least: • The Alliance’s Projecting Stability efforts. I won’t go in the first two – but I just mention them here, so we get the full picture: it is never about Projecting Stability alone, never on the Fight against Terrorism alone, never on Deterrence and Defence alone, but on the three together in a 360 degree approach. NATO UNCLASSIFIED

The Project Stability The origin of projecting stability What it is not; Definition and characteristics; Comprehensive Approach; What the future might bring MORE ON PROJECTING STABILITY So focus on Projecting Stability. Projecting Stability has already been discussed for several years now. Yet we still have only a basic consensus on what it means in practice. It stretches from assistance to the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL to Support to African Union (AU). It works with very different partners – for instance the so called enhanced opportunity partners entail countries as Australia and Georgia, but also Jordan and Sweden. In an attempt to contribute to better understanding I will run you through the following questions: • What is the origin of projecting stability; • What it isn’t– eliminate misunderstandings, help to answer what truly is; • What are its definition and characteristics; • How does it relate to Comprehensive Approach; • What is the future bringing us? NATO UNCLASSIFIED

The origin of projecting stability What we need it for ? NATO is political and military alliance -the protection of its citizen - promote security @ stability Strategic Concept 2010 -collective defence- crisis management- cooperative security Warsaw Summit 2016 -NATO to contribute international community I PS - “if NATO’s neighbors are more stable, NATO is more secure “ ORIGIN OF PROJECTING STABILITY If we want to understand what Projecting Stability should be, we first need to understand what we need it for. Therefore allow me, as first speaker of the day, to go back to basics. NATO is a political and military alliance, whose principal task is to ensure the protection of its citizens and to promote security and stability in the North Atlantic area. As outlined in the 2010 Strategic Concept, the Alliance’s three core tasks are collective defence, crisis management and cooperative security. So, collective defence and deterrence based on consensus of a community of values, the centre of gravity of the Alliance, remain the essence of what NATO stands for and does. At the Warsaw Summit, Allies agreed that, at the same time, in light of the changed and evolving more unstable global security environment, and based on a broad and strengthened Deterrence and Defence posture, NATO seeks to contribute more to the efforts of the international community in Projecting Stability and strengthening security outside its territory, thereby contributing to the Alliance security overall. Over more than 25 years, the Alliance has developed a network of partnerships with non-member countries from the Euro-Atlantic area, the Mediterranean and the Gulf region, and other partners across the globe. This is expressed very well in the Warsaw Declaration on Transatlantic Security. In para 7 of this declaration it says:“If NATO’s neighbours are more stable, NATO is more secure” This policy, by the way, is less revolutionary as it may seem at first glance. It has in fact deep roots in the Alliance. NATO already at the London Summit 1990 expressed its intent to project stability in to Eastern and Central Europe in order to prevent regional fallout from the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The return of this sentence shows that the many regional security challenges we see now in the South are similarly historic in nature and deserve also a likewise fundamental approach. NATO UNCLASSIFIED

Common misunderstanding on PS What the PS is and what it is not Defence @ deterrence –PS are distinct concepts - cooperative security consist of activities as PS - NATO cooperation with Swe-Finl is PS and Def/Deterrence 2. Command @ Control -PS will be implement through NATO command structure -we cannot control as we control our command @ force structure The definition -is on of negotiation, not of command and control SOME COMMON MISUNDERSTANDINGS ON PS Before I speak about a definition and characteristics, I want to explain some common misunderstandings about Projecting Stability. It helps us define what Projecting Stability is, if we know better what it is not. Defence and deterrence and Projecting Stability are two distinct concepts. But they are not opposing, or even neatly separated concepts. Let me explain further: It is true that co-operative security often consists of activities which can be defined as Protecting Stability: our co-operation with Sweden and Finland is a very concrete example of co-operative security which projects stability. But at the same time it also serves our defence and deterrence. The other way around, our tailored Assurance Measures for Turkey serves not only collective defence, but has also a projection effect on partner countries as Iraq. Another misunderstanding is about command and control. While Projection Stability will be implemented through the NATO Command Structure, it acknowledges that there is an outside world that we cannot control as we control our own command- and force structure. We should therefore learn to work, or at least deal, with the non-NATO entities we get, not with the partners we want (who do not always see themselves as partners by the way). Many of which are fiercely independent. A third misunderstanding, related to the second, comes from the fact that by definition others see us differently than we see ourselves. This is why we have to explain better the word projection. It is often suspiciously looked at and confused with power projection of a greater power on a lesser one. In more simple terms: to force our will onto others. That is not what is meant - the relationship with third parties in Projection Stability is one of negotiation, not of command and control. This is where I guess Projecting Stability differs from Defence and Deterrence. We will of course never get an honest answer from our opponents whether we deter them effectively. We will have to judge ourselves alone. Yet, we must understand that Projecting Stability – while it needs consent of our partners and is beneficial to them - is not just philanthropy. It is as much as defence and deterrence is, about our, that is NATO’s, security. As a corporation is there for its shareholders, NATO is there for its members. These nuances are what make projecting stability so complicated – you must try hard to convince, but not force. While you work for NATO’s security, you must want to sincerely help the partner countries. So the trick is to find common goals and interests. NATO UNCLASSIFIED

Areas to associate permanent tasks & emerging challenges Where PS @ D/D meets NATO Core Tasks COOPERATIVE SECURITY CRISIS MANAGEMENT COLLECTIVE DEFENCE Areas to associate permanent tasks & emerging challenges Military tools Mil Objs of Mil coop Projecting Stability Deterrence & Defense Political Guidance Conference, seminars & workshops Education, Training & Exercises Strategic Engagement SJOs MJOs(+) Consultation Defence capacity building NATO-led Missions NATO-led Operations MJOs Military dialogue Political Dialogue NATO UNCLASSIFIED

Definition and Characteristics of PS PS has four characteristics: It is based on a strengthened defence and deterrence posture. condition without it, PS cannot exist; 2. It is based on our enduring principles: democracy, human rights, rule of law 3. It is also a complementary activity. NATO is not alone 4 It is directed not at NATO, but at partners. DEFINITION AND CHARACTERISTICS OF PS Going through the wording of the Warsaw Communique you will find that Projecting stability has four characteristics: - It is based on a strengthened defence and deterrence posture. This means that defence and deterrence are a condition - without it, Projecting Stability cannot exist; - it is also based on our enduring principles: democracy, human rights and the rule of law; - it is also a complementary activity. NATO is not alone, but part of a wider international community. This is why the Comprehensive Approach still has its original validity. I will come back to that later; - And last but not least – it is directed not at NATO, but at partners. NATO UNCLASSIFIED

MC Definition of PS as a strategy A set of pro-active activities which influence and shape the strategic environment (the means); Which are coherently articulated, comprehensively developed (the ways); In order to make the strategic environment more secure and –thus – less threatening (the end). This has led to the following definition of PS as a strategy, accepted by the MC in April 2017. As we know as soldiers (and NATO-civilians) a strategy consists of ends, ways and means: • A set of pro-active activities which influence and shape the strategic environment (the means); • Which are coherently articulated, comprehensively developed (the ways); • In order to make the strategic environment more secure and –thus – less threatening (the end). NATO UNCLASSIFIED

What the future might bring PS continuing importance of CA - Working on concreate capability building - Afghanistan-Kosovo- RSM - Preparation for NTCBM-I ( Iraq ) NATO is only one of many players EU view –challenges from the south NATO is not supranational organization 41 partners – 1200 deferent events Three ways to be changes NCS-A - MP and J9 under 2 stars leadership at SHAPE Hub for the South ( new flagship for SD South Clearing house by SC on the South WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING Now that I tried to explain to you a bit on PS and the continuing importance of Comp- Approach, you rightly might ask yourself: “So what? What does it mean for us, what will change in future?” More importantly, we can work on concrete capacity building. We already are doing this for Afghanistan and Kosovo, where the Resolute Support Mission has been enlarged. We are preparing for a mission for Iraq. These are important contributions we must continue to work on However, let me therefore try and put the role of NATO into perspective. NATO itself is, as I explained before, only one of many players. Special mention should be here of the EU – in view of the complexity of the challenges from the south and also of the complementarity of both organisations. Furthermore NATO is not a supranational organization. Also it has 41 partners, for which there are 1200 different events for which only a rough 2 percent of the NATO (military) budget has been spent in (2017?). All this to say that the brunt of the costs and efforts the Alliance will put in, are to be borne by individual Allies, by national defense budgets. This is another reason why defense spending by the Allies should go up. But what can we, as NATO-officials, do? The answer lies in the fact that there is no other bigger and more credible political and military organisation that can help Allies and partners coordinate better their knowledge and efforts for projecting stability. I see three ways we can be a catalyst for change: It is therefore good that in the proposal on NATO Command Structure Adaption put before the Allies recently, the Military Partnership and J9 will be put under one two star-leadership at SHAPE to help better internal coordination of mil-mil and civ-mil cooperation. We can make better use of the new flagship for the Strategic Direction South in the NATO Command Structure, the Hub for the South. I know that others will speak later in more detail about the Hub, but one thing I would like to mention is the idea of a clearing house the Secretary-General of NATO has put forward in his stocktaking report on the South. Such clearing house will help better understanding by all Allies what individual allies do. So we know better where the gaps and overlaps are. While we should of course respect the sovereign choices of Allies, this will make possible better coordination in future.. NATO UNCLASSIFIED

Comprehensive Approach; - CA it is not the new concept The first CA Action Plan from Bucharest summit 2008 Neither is it easy concept – battle fatigue PS shows the need of CA Combining political, civilian and military instruments PS needs cooperation between Allies , partners, IO,NGO Comprehensive Approach As I announced before, a few words on comprehensive approach to conclude my intervention. Comprehensive Approach is not a very new concept – it has been with us for an odd ten years now- The first Comprehensive Approach Action Plan was agreed at the 2008 Bucharest Summit. Neither is it an easy concept. So sometimes there is understandably a bit of battle fatigue. Projecting Stability however shows that we still need a comprehensive approach. We still need combining political, civilian and military instruments. Military means, although essential, are not enough on their own to meet the many complex challenges to our security. Projecting Stability needs cooperation between Allies, between Allies and partners, international organisations and non-governmental organisations to contribute in a concerted effort. This is why I use this opportunity to advocate the Comprehensive Approach Action Plan. For this to work we need to take into account the respective strengths, mandates and roles, as well as their decision-making autonomy of other actors. NATO UNCLASSIFIED

Interact and complements We need CIMIC and CMIA - capacity Specialized personnel Sense of responsibility Openness and determination COI C can and will contribute To understand better how this all interacts and complements this we need a CIMIC and CMI-capacity, filled with specialized personnel, with a minimum of civilian capability in order to interface effectively with other actors. We need a shared sense of responsibility, openness and determination. It is my hope and conviction that this Community of Interest Conference can - and will - contribute to that. I am ready to engage with my team and stand ready to answer any question or comment you might have. NATO UNCLASSIFIED

COMBINED CIMIC C 2019 CKLC @ COIC - 2019 J9 SHAPE Combining conferences , between J9 SHAPE and CCOE , in the frame of Comprehensive Approach we have been agreed to combine the COIC and CKLC , so I want to announce today that next year 2019 instead of two conferences , we will one combined conference , we will se to put the new name but so far we will mention it CIMIC Combine Conference 2019 , and the location will be finally in Tirana , Albania J9 SHAPE NATO UNCLASSIFIED

COMBINED CKLC @ COIC 2019 T I R A N 2 1 9

Q @ A THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION NATO UNCLASSIFIED