LAPS Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting of Dennis and Katrina

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Presentation transcript:

LAPS Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting of Dennis and Katrina Steve Albers, Isidora Jankov, John McGinley, Yuanfu Xie, J-Y Kim, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, John Gamache and Sim Aberson The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season is notable for having the most named storms in a single season. Five storms, including three hurricanes (Cindy, Dennis, and Emily), were active in July. Dennis was chosen for study because radar data was collected. According to the reports from the Tropical Prediction Center (information online at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov), Dennis formed from a vigorous tropical wave and 1 1 1

LAPS Aimed at fine scale analysis where error covariances are not well known Analysis is data dominated: detailed where data exists, smooth where data is sparse; blended to background where data is absent Multi-step procedure

LAPS III Configuration Slide 0 LAPS III Configuration Data Data Ingest Intermediate data files variances Error Covariance covariances Trans LAPS GSI STMAS3D Trans Post proc1 Post proc2 Post proc3 Model prep WRF-ARW MM5 WRF-NMM Probabilistic Post Processing Ensemble Forecast 3

ANALYSIS QUESTIONS Dennis: Can data, such as, aircraft measured doppler winds adjust the 3D winds and height with appropriate weights on observations and constraints. Katrina: How much can an analysis benefit from drop sonde and radar data?

GFS 850mb wind 5

fdfdfd GOES/POES Soundings Cloud-Drift Winds ACARS Temperature ACARS/Radar Wind

pre-balanced 850mb wind with obs. 5 July 2005 2100 UTC 7

Balanced 850 wind and heights. 8

AOML 0.5 - 3.0km doppler radar winds July 5, 2005 2100 UTC 9

AOML 3km radar & dropsonde winds July 5, 2005 2200UTC 10

Analysis with Radar and Dropsondes 750mb July 5, 2005 2200UTC 11

ANALYSIS CONSIDERATIONS Increased time window to bring in more radar data with the dropsondes Decreased minimum radius of influence to capture smaller scale wind maxima? Increase vertical radius of influence - particularly if we bring in flight level winds

Balanced-GFS temperature W-E Xsect through Dennis 13

Dennis Height Perturb. X-sect 14

Dennis Balanced W-E wind and omega Xsect. 15

ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENTS * Cyclostrophic term is being reweighted in the balance package to strengthen height/temperature perturbation in accordance with gradient wind relationship. - Important for tight circulations in tropics. * Improved cloud analysis contribution to the balance package. - Parameter adjustments to improve low cloud depiction.

11n satellite with 850mb wind overlay 17

Aircraft radar reflectivity utilized in the analysis Katrina 18 UTC 27 August MSLP and drop sondes Aircraft radar reflectivity utilized in the analysis

Balance package testing (higher/lower weights on wind/heights) Katrina Balance package testing (higher/lower weights on wind/heights) Favoring wind analysis Favoring height analysis 950 mb pre-balanced (green) and balanced (orange) heights (dm).

Katrina Pre-balanced 950-mb wind speed and height. Balanced 950-mb wind speed and height.

QUESTIONS?!?!?!?!?!?