Census taking in Ireland Deirdre Cullen Senior Statistician Central Statistics Office

Historical context Most recent census 2011 24th census - since 1841 Every 10 years up to 1946 Every 5 years since 1951 Ireland - a ‘traditional’ census Next census 24th April 2016

In short In 2011 we ran a De Facto census with hand delivery and collection of paper questionnaires to 1.8m dwellings over a ten week period, followed by scanning, capture and coding of the data, and the release of definitive results within 12 months of census day.

The questions Paper questionnaire, 3 pages per person, 30 questions Public consultation , expert group, pilot survey In 2011 – 2 new questions, amendments to 13 questions NEW: Foreign languages, general health, CHANGED: Usual residence, central heating fuel, travel to school, carers Submissions from bodies such as Carers Association, religious groups, Revenue commissioners etc. Expert group, pilot, 12,000 dwellings, assess, report etc. 2 new questions – languages and health No-change will be a challenge - religion, disability, ethnicity – past its ‘use-by’ date.

Designation Use GeoDirectory –national address database Divide country into 5,000 work areas using GIS Produce maps for every enumerator Produce address lists for every area Captured x,y coordinates of every dwelling Enumerators found 2.5% additional dwellings GIS – digital boundaries – set of xy co-ordinates that define an area Non-unique addresses in rural areas

Field force – pyramid structure 6 44 440 5,000 Census Liaison Officers HQ Regional Supervisors Regional offices Field Supervisors own homes Traditional census – lots of man power All countries use a lot of people to do this, even those with internet because they have no address register. Internet – e.g. Australia - form and epin, or epin only, different response rates, priority is response rate Working against yourself – aiming for 65%, Canada aiming for 70% Enumerators

Field work Traditional census Enumerators drop off and collect all forms Use callings cards, have mobile phones Hospitals, hotels, prisons etc. included 10 weeks – 5 weeks before, 5 weeks after Paid for every form returned Issue legal notice for non cooperation Prosecute non-compliance

Process the data Scan and capture data - 2m forms 45 million scanned pages in 120 days 360,000 pages a day 150 HQ staff, edits, coding In 2011 coded all dwellings to their x-y coordinates Coded place of work, school and college

Publish the results Preliminary results 3 months after census July Preliminary results 3 months after census Main demographic results within 11 months 12 census publications, thematic 2011 - interpret the data for our users Small area data – SAPMAP Constituency profiles - politics Micro data files Joint report with Northern Ireland CSO boundary layers: SAPS: 17 geography different levels, with a total of 24,027 layers. SAPMAP: 19 geography levels, with a total of 74,336 layers. 34 Counties, 3,409 Electoral Divisions, 18,488 Small Areas, 43 Dáil Constituencies 2007, 40 Dáil Constituencies 2013, 7 Gaeltacht Areas, 85 Legal Towns and Cities, 824 Towns/Cities (Settlements), 171 Local Electoral Areas, 8 Regional Authority Areas, 4 Provinces, 24 Dioceses, 197 Dublin Parishes, 6 Garda Regions, 28 Garda Divisions, 96 Garda Districts, 563 Garda Sub Divisions 268 Baronies, 50,041 Townlands

Quality report issues Quality issues Definitions Extensive quality checks in field 3 layers of supervision Extensive macro edits No coverage survey Definitions Citizenship vs. Nationality Students – family home as usual residence Economic status – PES

Next census 24th April 2016 Political Demographic User needs Census every five years Political Demographic User needs Lack of administrative data

No change census The 2016 census will be a ‘no-change’ census No public consultation, same questions Problem areas - ethnicity, religion, nationality Exception - marital status to include ‘in a registered same-sex civil partnership’ No internet option - €€€

Political Article 16.2.2 of the Constitution provides: Dáil representation as ascertained at last census Political constituency boundaries are re-drawn every five years following release of census results Legal basis to Irish census Statistics Act, 1993 and Statistics (Census of Population) Order 2015. Every household in the country obliged by law to complete and return a census form 1 TD for every 20 – 30,000 persons 2011 – 43 constituencies following the 2009 Act. 3 had more than 30,000 and 4 had between 29,000 and 30,000 Re-drawn in Act of 2013, now there are 40 New constituencies on our SAPMAP

Demographic Population, 1841-2011 6.53 4.59 3.5 2.97 2.82

Population structure 2011 Births in 1980: 74,064 Direct link between number of women (of child bearing age – peak is 31) and number of babies

Nationality Non-Irish nationals 544,357 12% population Plus 124,624 since 2006 Above figures are usually resident. Figures below are based on Population & Migration estimates which are de facto. Non-Irish net migration: De Facto Population % of pop 2014: 7,900 564,200 12.2% 2013: 2,100 554,500 12.1% 2012: -8,200 550,400 12.0% 2011: 557,000 12.1%

Importance of Migration

Importance of Migration

Importance of Migration

Importance of Migration

Recent Migration 104,800 Immigration -33,100 Emigration

Gross migration flows 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007-2011 Emigrants   Emigrants 46.3 49.2 72 69.2 80.6 317.3 Immigrants 151 114 73.7 41.8 53.3 433.4 Gross Flow 197 163 146 111 134 750.7 16.4%

Inter-census change 2006 - 2011 Population change 348,404 Births Deaths Residual net migration of 125,000 Revise inter-census estimates Were 90,000 out, 2% Most change in 2007 Natural increase Since 2011………… Population 2014: 4,609,600 Increase since 2011: 34,600 Natural increase: 123,500 (Births:212,200, deaths: 88,700) Net migration: -88,900 (Imm: 169,200, Em: 258,000)

User needs End of 2011 – do we really need a census? Cost €50m Extensive user consultation Overwhelming support Basic planning of schools, housing and health care Extensive use of micro data POWSCAR Place of work, school or college Econometric models for economic forecasting, transport planning

What about administrative data? Creating ‘census data’ from administrative data Census data = small area data for small groups Building blocks Step 1: Account for everyone Step 2: Put everyone in the right place Step 3: Add basic demographic attributes Step 4: Add economic and other attributes Not at step 1 yet.

Statistical view of NDI – Persons and Property PropertyPerson CSOProp_ID CSOPPSN Relationship Sources (Cradle to Grave) - Births - Child benefit - Post primary - Higher Ed - Further Ed - Employee - Self Employed - Social Welfare - Drivers - Medical (to be) - Pensions - Deaths Sources (Property) - Census - Geodirectory - Property tax - POSTCODE - Electricity (MPRN) - Gas (GPRN) - Water charge - Septic tank - Rental properties - Second properties - Local Authority PAR - Person Activity Register (CSOPPSN) 2011 (4.3m) Admin Active Population during year Signs of life Residential Property Register (CSOProp_ID key) COP2011_ID GEODIR_ID REVLPT_ID MPRN GPRN WATERID SEPTICID POSTCODE X,Y PersonRelationship CSOPPSN1 CSOPPSN2 Relationship

Admin Count V Census 2011 Would expect admin count curve to be outside by definition Females aged 50 – 75?

Next Steps I year to our next census Plans are advanced (questionnaires printed, recruitment has begun, IT systems being built, ..) Staff – 30 from 2011, 130 new 2021 round Ireland will run a traditional census with internet option.

Thank you