Introduction: Optimizing and Enhancing the Integrated Atlantic Ocean Observing System Johannes Karstensen GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Germany

Future of Sustained Observations OceanObs’09 identified tremendous opportunities, significant challenges Called for a framework for planning and moving forward with an enhanced global sustained ocean observing system over the next decade, integrating new physical, biogeochemical, biological observations while sustaining present observations What is this Framework for Ocean Observing? Its genesis comes from the OceanObs’09 conference, which took place 21-25 September 2009 in Venice, Italy. It brought together more than 600 participants from 36 countries, focused on defining a collective vision for the coming decade of ocean observations for societal benefit. The papers from this conference, which form an excellent resource reviewing progress and identifying opportunities and community plans, are all available at its website www.oceanobs09.net The conference identified tremendous opportunities to expand ocean observing capabilities, and noted significant challenges. There are many players in a potential integrated sustained ocean observing system. The conference, amongst other things, called for the development of a Framework for planning and moving forward with an enhanced global sustained ocean observing system over the next decade, integrating new physical, biogeochemical, and biological observations while sustaining present observations. It is this Framework that I’ll describe in the next portion of the talk.

AtlantOS overarching goal Integration of the so far loosely-coordinated set of existing ocean observing activities to a more sustainable, more efficient, and fit-for-purpose Integrated Atlantic Ocean Observing System. AtlantOS is all about sustainability – it is a strategic project – encouraging the nations to engage in supporting ocean observation for the next decades. The EC is supporting AtlantOS with 20.65 Mio € over 4 years. The yearly AtlantOS budget is about 1% of the current yearly costs (300-400 Mio €) for global ocean observation. 08/11/2018

Input (Requirements) Output (Data & Products) Process (Observations) Framework for Ocean Observing A simple system Input (Requirements) Output (Data & Products) Process (Observations) Moving from introduction to the core ideas behind the framework team’s work: We wanted to take a complex system: the ocean observing system built up of research and some operational effort, in situ and satellite observing networks measuring different variables, new technological developments, data streams, and products — and apply systems thinking. This starts with a simple model of the system, which has an input in the form of requirements, a process in the form of observing networks, and an output in data and products that then feeds a scientific or societal benefit, the source of the requirements. http://www.oceanobs09.net/foo/

We cannot measure everything, nor do we need to Driven by requirements, negotiated with feasibility in mind Essential Ocean Variables We cannot measure everything, nor do we need to basis for including new elements of the system, for expressing requirements at a high level Driven by requirements, negotiated with feasibility Allows for innovation in the observing system over time A key idea in the Framework is the definition of Essential Ocean Variables, which some overlap with other types of essential variables that have been defined, such as Essential Climate Variables defined by GOOS and GCOS, Essential Variables defined by WMO for weather forecasting, and Essential Biodiversity Variables that are being defined by GEOBON (although largely focused on terrestrial variables). The idea is that for the key societal and scientific drivers of sustained ocean observations, we cannot measure everything, nor do we need to. Essential Ocean Variables should respond to these high-level drivers, related to climate, to understanding and managing ecosystem services, to conserving biodiversity, to managing living marine resources, to safety and protection of life and property at sea and on the coasts. Aligning the coordination processes of the observing system on variables, rather than by platforms or observing techniques, stays truer to the natural system which we are trying to observe, while allowing for innovation of observing techniques over time as technology and capability develop. The definition of an EOV must be driven by these requirements, but be rooted in reality, its measurement must be feasible. We may not be ready to measure all EOVs, but this assessing and encouraging the development of readiness is also a part of the Framework. http://www.oceanobs09.net/foo/

Mature Pilot Concept Increasing Readiness Levels Towards sustained system: requirements, observations, data management Readiness Mature Attributes: Products of the global ocean observing system are well understood, documented, consistently available, and of societal benefit. More Operations Pilot Attributes: Planning, negotiating, testing, and approval within appropriate local, regional, global arenas. Increasing Readiness Levels Concept The readiness levels are in fact an idea that has been with us on the physical side for a couple of decades, the precursor of OOPC (OODSP) spent a lot of time examining the feasibility and impact of different observing systems, to see if they were ready for global sustained observations. We believe that many biogeochemical and biological variables also need global sustained observations, but perhaps the technologies and techniques are not yet ready for instant application globally. We need to increase the readiness of these observing networks so they drive towards being capable of global sustained observations delivering an important data product that has impact on science or society. If there is an ambition to run a regional pilot to build a future global system – this type of pull helps engage the research community, and they want to be engaged. For Argo, new sensors should be and are being trialed in pilot projects, to improve their readiness for deployment on more of the array. Attributes: Peer review of ideas and studies at science, engineering, and data management community level. More Research

Structure of the Framework Issues (Scientific and societal drivers) Requirement What to Measure Essential Ocean Variables … Satellite Constellation Argo SOOP … This model of the framework is derived from where we are now. We have a large part of our observing system (in purple, made up of different observing units/networks) that is built and driven by our observing requirements (in orange). These requirements are expressed in Essential Ocean Variables. Different observing units or networks measure different Essential Ocean Variables or similar EVC but in a different way. The merging of the observations that come in by different data streams allow to create products (in green). These products then help inform research and societal decisions – and these drivers are what help originally set and refine requirements (arrows) in an important feedback loop to keep the observing system ‘fit for purpose’.. There are two arrows in the feedback loop: the outer loop at the highest level with feedback from decision-makers about how information from the ocean has impacted their decision, which can then modify the questions asked of the observing system; and an inner loop that allows ocean observers to look at the fitness for purpose of data products and make assessments there Data Assembly VOS Issues Impact Data/Info. Products … Satellite OceanSITES IMOS … IOOS … … … … … Observations Deployment and Maintenance

Project Structure

Overview of the workflow of AtlantOS Observing system requirements and design studies (WP1) -define requirements for a sustained and integrated Atlantic OOS, for optimal sampling, EOV - identify capacities, gaps, feasibility and costs Enhancement of observing networks (ship-based & autonomous) WP2&3 consistent standards for the measurement and delivery of EOV, increase temporal and special coverage capabilities - ship-based: GO-Ship, SOOP/VOS, Continuous Plankton Recorder, Seafloor mapping, Fisheries/zooplankton - autonomous: Argo, OceanSITES biogeochemistry, OceanSITES transport, Glider, PIRATA, Surface drifter, Animal tracking Interfaces with coastal ocean observing systems (WP4) - conduct gap analysis for the connection shelf and deep ocean - sensor and technology requirements Integrated regional observing systems (WP5) - Assessment and coordination of regional observing (North & South Atlantic) - Overarching themes: Climate change & ecosystem evolution 1) We cannot measure everything (and do not need to); including new elements of the system is driven by requirements, negotiated with feasibiltiy. A key idea in the Framework is the definition of Essential Ocean Variables The idea is that for the key societal and scientific drivers of sustained ocean observations, we cannot measure everything, nor do we need to. Essential Ocean Variables should respond to these high-level drivers, related to climate, to understanding and managing ecosystem services, to conserving biodiversity, to managing living marine resources, to safety and protection of life and property at sea and on the coasts. The definition of an EOV must be driven by these requirements, but be rooted in reality, its measurement must be feasible. We may not be ready to measure all EOVs, but this assessing and encouraging the development of readiness is also a part of the Framework. 2/3) The network sustainability beyond AtlantOS is key Build on existing observation capacity to improve the temporal and spatial resolution of data

Overview of the workflow of AtlantOS Cross-cutting issues and emerging networks (WP6) - develop technology and observing system practices to further improve efficiency and impact Data flow and data integration (WP7) - data harmonisation, integration and dissemination Societal benefits from observing/information networks (WP8) - implementation of Global Earth Observation Systems of Systems (GEOSS) in the areas: climate, disasters, ecosystems, health and water to produce decision support tools System evaluation and sustainability (WP9) - key performance indicators of the in-situ Atlantic observing systems, EOV evaluation - develop a long-term sustainability plan & commitments by funding agencies Engagement, Dissemination, and Communication (WP10) - develop a structured dialogue between stakeholders & providers communities 1) We cannot measure everything (and do not need to); including new elements of the system is driven by requirements, negotiated with feasibiltiy. A key idea in the Framework is the definition of Essential Ocean Variables The idea is that for the key societal and scientific drivers of sustained ocean observations, we cannot measure everything, nor do we need to. Essential Ocean Variables should respond to these high-level drivers, related to climate, to understanding and managing ecosystem services, to conserving biodiversity, to managing living marine resources, to safety and protection of life and property at sea and on the coasts. The definition of an EOV must be driven by these requirements, but be rooted in reality, its measurement must be feasible. We may not be ready to measure all EOVs, but this assessing and encouraging the development of readiness is also a part of the Framework. 2/3) The network sustainability beyond AtlantOS is key Build on existing observation capacity to improve the temporal and spatial resolution of data 7) Harmonisation of heterogeneous data from various providers/networks Integration of the near-real time observations (WP2/3) for dissemination to research and operational users 8) Integrate data from the Copernicus Marine Services and EMODnet in the Atlantic augmented by new AtlantOS data to produce decision support tools for a variety of marine environmental and economic sectors 08/11/2018

Some thoughts about “Optimizing observations” No optimization without a well defined observing objective! Some Observing objectives: Global/ocean warming Ocean acidification Ocean de-oxygenation Carbon uptake Sea level changes Operational use Science-Policy support (e.g. implementation of “Marine Strategy Framework Directive” MSFD, Common Fisheries Policy CFP) Design an “adequate” observing strategy (time, space, variable) that will provide critical information to enable an evaluation of the Observing objective WP1

Observing design: Argo array Define Observing objective Estimate upper ocean heat content variability on seasonal and longer time scales Determine base/conceptual model and analyse “observations” against it White (1994) analysed upper ocean heat content (XBT, TSG, CTD observations) and it variability against the conceptual model of control mechanisms (planetary waves + air/sea exchange) Derive minimal sampling requirement Sample upper ocean (1500m) in 3°x 3° in a certain latitudal range Evaluate observing system performance against requirement Existing system not sufficient – enhance system (introducing the Argo profiler) 08/11/2018 Title of Presentation

The Current Global Ocean Observing System Integrated system designed to meet many requirements: Climate Weather prediction Global and coastal ocean prediction Marine hazards warning Transportation Marine environment and ecosystem monitoring Naval applications 8 of 9 Societal Benefits 60% complete ADD the mission and objectives for the global component Dedicated Ship Support Data & Assimilation Subsystems Management and Product Delivery Satellites -- SST, Surface Topography, Wind, Color, Sea Ice Tide gauge stations Drifting Buoys Tropical Moored Buoys Profiling Floats Ships of Opportunity Ocean Reference Stations Ocean Carbon Networks

Ocean processes versus observing systems/networks/platforms

Ocean processes versus observing systems/networks/platforms

The role of ocean biogeochemistry in climate Societal drivers and scientific applications for the global ocean observing system The role of ocean biogeochemistry in climate Q1.1 How is the ocean carbon content changing? Q1.2 How does the ocean influence cycles of non-CO2 greenhouse gases?   Human impacts on ocean biogeochemistry Q2.1. How large are the ocean’s “dead zones” and how fast are they changing? Q2.2 What are rates and impacts of ocean acidification? Ocean ecosystem health Q3.1 Is the biomass of the ocean changing? Q3.2 How does eutrophication and pollution impact ocean productivity and water quality? …

Feasibility vs. Impact

Specifications of the observational requirements Oxygen Specifications of the observational requirements

Specifications of Current Observing Elements Oxygen Specifications of Current Observing Elements