CHANGING ROLES OF THE MILITARY

ASSIGNMENTS Smith, Democracy, ch. 3 Modern Latin America, ch. 13

OUTLINE Questions Historical Perspective Self-Assumed Roles Missions and Coups Types of Military Regimes Approval Ratings Impacts of 9/11?

QUESTIONS What roles for the military in democratic (or democratizing) settings? What level (or type) of political power? Why accept any reduction in political influence? Issue: not necessarily coups, but civilian-military relations

ARMED FORCES IN PERSPECTIVE Wars of independence (1810-1825) One element in triangle of power—church, economic elite, and military Path to upward mobility and political influence Duty: maintenance of internal order Impact of professionalization? Saber-rattling against neighboring countries, but without real war (especially in 20th century)

Military Folklore: Forging Fatherlands Patterns of Participation Incidence of Coups Missions and Regimes Wars against Subversion The Democrats’ Dilemma: To Amnesty or Not? Argentina Chile

Military Regimes: Key Factors Power structure: personalistic or collegial? Institutional role of military in decision-making Ideological orientation Social base of civilian support

Types of Authoritarian Regime ________________Power Structure___________________ Personalist Institutionalized Leadership ____________ Traditional Caudillo or Collective Junta or Military “Man on Horseback” Bureaucratic-Authoritarian Regime Technocratic State, One-Party State or Civilian Delegative Semi-Democracy, Corporatist Regime or Sultanistic Despotism

Prominent Military Regimes in Latin America Reformist/Inclusionary: Argentina 1946-55 [judgment call here] Ecuador 1963-66, 1972-78 Peru 1968-80 Reactionary/Exclusionary: Argentina 1966-73, 1976-83 Brazil 1964-85 Chile 1973-1989 Guatemala 1963-85 Uruguay 1973-84

MODES OF TRANSITION Personalist regimes, especially “sultanistic despotism” = armed revolution and/or assassination Personalist regimes if military = armed revolution or military replacement Bureaucratic regimes = fissures within ruling elite, negotiation with opposition One-party regimes = winning elections (as in Mexico)

Modes of Interaction: The Armed Forces and Democracy Military control: political subordination of nominally civilian governments to effective military control Military tutelage: participation of armed forces in general policy processes and military oversight of civilian authorities Conditional military subordination: abstention by the armed forces from overt intervention in political questions, while reserving the “right” to intervene in the name of national interests and security Civilian control: subordination of armed forces in political and policy terms to civilian authorities, usually including a civilian minister of defense

Patterns of Civil-Military Relations, ca. 2000 Military Control (N=0) None Military Tutelage (N=4) Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Venezuela Conditional Military Subordination (N=9) Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Honduras, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Peru Civilian Control (N=6) Argentina, Costa Rica, Haiti, Mexico, Panama, Uruguay

Levels of Trust in the Military, ca. 2000: Ecuador 60% Venezuela 54 Brazil 53 Chile 46 Uruguay 44 Central America 26 Note: “A lot” + “some”

IMPACTS OF 9/11? Involvement in war on drugs, and now… Emphasis on internal security and political stability Police functions Focus on borders From anti-subversion to anti-terrorism Renewal of U.S. support?

CHANGE OVER TIME Oligarchic Rule and Top-down Reform (1880s-1920s) Military strongmen “Oligarchic democracy” Co-optative democracy Populism and Dictatorship (1930s-1970s) Populist alliances/corporatist states Women and politics A democratic surge [1940s-70s] Bureaucratic-authoritarian regimes

CHANGE OVER TIME (cont.) The Revolutionary Path (1950s-1980s) “plantation societies” Cuba, Nicaragua—and others? A Renewal of Democracies (1980s-present) “unsolvable problems” pressure from below ending of Cold War absence of ideology Rise of the “new left”? (1998-present) Politics of protest/use of ballot box Chávez v. Lula prospects?

THE CHILEAN PATH Two-step process Stunning election (1988 plebiscite) Negotiations: 1980 Constitution Tenure for military commanders Formation of National Security Council Perpetuation of self-amnesty Nine members of Senate (senadores biónicos) 10 percent of copper revenues to military budget