sustainable development climate change and sustainable development Julian Morris Vice President for Research, The Reason Foundation

Overview A question of morality What is “sustainable development”? What are the likely impacts of climate change? How to address climate change in a way that is consistent with sustainable development: Addressing today’s problems first Promoting economic development A question of morality

Sustainable Development is … “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” Brundtland Commission, 1997

Likely Impacts of Climate Change Hypothesised Impact Evidence? Increased precipitation YES Increased incidence of storms, hurricanes ? Increased rate of reduction in glaciers Increased rate of sea-level rise More hot days, fewer cold days Increased disease NO Change in ranges of species

Is cutting carbon emissions a sensible way to address climate change? Assumes: 1. IPCC SAR Median warming scenario 2. Kyoto restrictions applied until 2100 Source: Lomborg 2001

Adapting to Change Problem Adaptive Responses Malaria, dengue, etc. Pesticides, air conditioning Diarrhoeal diseases Clean water, sanitation Flooding – increased precipitation Flood barriers, houses on stilts, migration Heat exhaustion – increase in hot days Fans, air conditioning, building structures Crop damage – aridity New crop varieties (GM) Change in ranges of species Improved incentives for sustainable management

Overall, Wealthier is Healthier Data: World Bank

Wealth and Access to Potable Water Data: World Bank

Economic Growth Data: Angus Maddison

Falling Proportion of Poor Source: Martin Wolf

Technology, Trade and Health

Improvements in Nutrition 1960 - 2000

As GDP Rises, Deaths from Extreme Weather Events Fall Data: EM-DAT, World Bank

=> Rising Life Expectancy

if we are really serious about reducing all these problems, our focus should not be on reducing climate change, or even, for the most part, on addressing the problems directly. instead, our focus should be on enabling economic development

But with carbon control … Resources will be diverted into lower-carbon technologies – and away from other technologies and wealth enhancing activities. Carbon control legitimises the imposition of the very barriers that currently hold people in poor countries back! So, people in the future will be less wealthy, will continue to suffer diseases, drought and other problems that would likely otherwise be solved.

Indoor Air Pollution in India In 2001, more than two thirds of the Indian population relied on “biomass” fuels. Sources: Indian Council of Medical Research & Census of India 2001

Annual Deaths from IAP (2000) Children Under 5 (Thousands) Total (Thousands) India 290 420 China 50 World 910 1,600 Source: WHO

Is it morally defensible to divert money, human effort and other resources away from real problems that exist today and from investments that might enable our descendants to adapt to a changing world?

Contact me: julian.morris@reason.org