Farming Challenges and Water Impacts David Lusch, Ph.D. Dept. of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences Michigan State University CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

Average Annual Temperatures in Michigan 9-year moving average 1895 - 2016 Average Annual Temperatures in Michigan (Source: MI State Climatologist’s Office) CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

Changes in the Length of the Frost-Free Season Great Lakes Region (Source: K. Kunkel, NOAA/NCEI) CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

Average Annual Precipitation in Michigan 1895 - 2016 9-year moving average (Source: MI State Climatologist’s Office) CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

Annual Total Precipitation Changes 1991-2012 compared to the 1901-1960 average Adapted from Peterson et al. 2013 CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

Frequency of Wet Days and Wet Following Wet Days Frequency of Wet Days and Wet/Wet Days 9-year moving averages (Source: MI State Climatologist’s Office) CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI Frequency of 3-in/day-plus storms has increased 52% in the last decade compared to 1961-1990 Return period of 3-in/day-plus storms has decreased from 14.4 years in 1961-1970 to 5.1 years in 2001- 2010 Saunders, S., D. Findlay and T. Easley. 2012. Doubled Trouble - More Midwestern Extreme Storms. The Rocky Mountain Climate Organization and the Natural Resources Defense Council. http://www.rockymountainclimate.org/reports_3.htm CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

in the last decade compared to 1961-1990 The total amount of precipitation in a year from all extreme storms has increased 39% in the last decade compared to 1961-1990 Saunders, S., D. Findlay and T. Easley. 2012. Doubled Trouble - More Midwestern Extreme Storms. The Rocky Mountain Climate Organization and the Natural Resources Defense Council. http://www.rockymountainclimate.org/reports_3.htm CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

Average Annual Snowfall Has Increased in the North 1961 – 1980 1981 – 2010 (Midwestern Regional Climate Center) CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

Lake-Effect Snow Events January 7, 2015 CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

Increase in Climatic Variability Recent weather data suggest that the climate system of the Great Lakes Region is becoming more volatile. Past history shows that societies have struggled with changes in climate variability (e.g., more frequent extremes, storminess), but have more easily coped/adapted with steady climate changes. CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

Some Recent Extreme Weather Events in Michigan Heat wave, March 2012 Major drought, summer 2012 Wettest year on record in MI 2013 Coldest winter in more than 100 years, 2013/2014 One of the top ten coldest winters 2014/2015 Record warm December 2015 CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI Climate Change and Agricultural Productivity Direct Impacts, Northern Lower Michigan Yields of traditional field crops in this region are constrained by the length of growing season and the timing/amount of precipitation during the growing season. In contrast, the primary weather-related constraint for tree fruit crops in Michigan is the frequency and severity of frosts and freezes during the spring. CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI Climate Change and Agricultural Productivity Direct Impacts, Northern Lower Michigan On a positive note, the growing season in Michigan has lengthened by 7 to 10 days, primarily due to an earlier occurrence of the last spring frost in recent decades. Unfortunately, the frequency of spring freeze events following the initial stages of phenological development has increased during the same time frame, resulting in an increased risk of production losses (Yu et al. 2014; Andresen et al. 2012). CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI Climate Change and Agricultural Productivity Direct Impacts, Northern Lower Michigan Several recent weather events have had a major impact on fruit production. In March 2012, an unprecedented heat wave over Michigan brought fruit crops out of dormancy more than a month ahead of normal. In April and May, a series of freeze events resulted in severe cold damage to fruit crops. Tart cherry, apple and sweet cherry yields were reduced by 90%, 88%, & 80% respectively, compared to the previous annual yield (Yu et al. 2014; USDA NASS, 2013). CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI Climate Change and Agricultural Productivity Direct Impacts, Midwest Region CO2 enrichment has some positive benefits reduces ET; increases PS, biomassag and yield Increasing T and CO2 has (+) and (-) impacts Recent soybean research at U of Illinois (SoyFACE) In cooler growing seasons, yields increased ~10% In warmer growing seasons, yields decreased­ Plants are more sensitive to drought stress under elevated CO2 levels. CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

Projected Yield Changes for Rainfed Corn CNRM-CM3 GCM CSIRO-MK3 GCM ECHAM5 GCM MIROC3.2 med. res. GCM (from Takle et al. 2013) CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

Projected Yield Changes for Rainfed Soybeans CNRM-CM3 GCM ECHAM5 GCM CSIRO-MK3 GCM MIROC3.2 med. res. GCM (from Takle et al. 2013) CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

Climate Change and Agricultural Productivity Excessive Warming Produces Yield Declines Corn Soybeans Equivalent to percent change (e.g., - 0.05 ~ 5% decline) Yields increase with temperature up to 29° C (84.2° F) for corn and 30° C (86° F) for soybeans, but temperatures above these thresholds are detrimental. (Schlenker and Roberts, 2009) CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

Indirect Ag Impacts of Climate Change Likely increased incidence of pests and pathogens due to warmer temperatures. Some studies have shown a decreased efficacy of herbicides due to CO2 enrichment. Increased rates of soil erosion due to more frequent intense rainfall events. No-till cropping systems will be more important than ever! CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

Projected Impacts on Streams & Groundwater More winter rain is likely earlier peak streamflows more runoff in autumn and winter less runoff in spring Increasing winter and spring streamflows. Summer low flows will decrease and become more variable as a result of more extreme precipitation events (GW-dominated streams less impacted). Increasing ET may outpace increases in precipitation and elevate drought risk, thus increasing demand for irrigation from groundwater. CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

Projected Impacts on Streams & Groundwater Decreases in summer groundwater levels are likely as the result of increasing ET coupled with decreasing precipitation. Cold-Transitional streams will be stressed the most. CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

Projected Impacts on Streams & Groundwater Forestland maximizes infiltration and groundwater recharge. Maintaining the large amount of forest land in northern Lower Michigan is a critical climate change mitigation strategy. CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI Questions? lusch@msu.edu CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI BACK-UP SLIDES CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

Agricultural Impacts on Climate Change Row-crop agriculture uses substantial amounts of fossil energy in the form of fertilizers, pesticides, and fuel for field operations. A consequence of this use is the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere. Direct sources include fossil fuel used for tillage and other field operations, as well as GHGs produced and consumed by microbes in cropped soils. Indirect sources include fossil energy used off-site to produce fertilizers and other agronomic inputs. CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

Agricultural Impacts on Climate Change Row-crop agriculture can thus be either a net source or sink of GHGs, with the balance (net emission or uptake) influenced greatly by management practices. CO2 Source: Gelfand, I. and G. P. Robertson. 2015. CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

Agricultural Impacts on Climate Change All three of the major biogenic GHGs are affected by agriculture: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O). Most agricultural CO2 emissions are from land conversion and fossil fuel use. Methane emissions associated with Michigan's agriculture are mostly from enteric fermentation by ruminant animals and animal wastes. Nitrous oxide emissions from Michigan's agriculture are produced mostly from nitrogen fertilizers, with lesser contributions from animal wastes. CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

Agricultural Impacts on Climate Change All rainfed – no irrigation

Agricultural Impacts on Climate Change GWIs over two decades at the MSU KBS LTER Main Cropping System Experiment no irrigation The GWI is a combined measure of the radiative forcing of a given GHG based on its physical capacity to absorb infrared radiation, its current concentration in the atmosphere, and its atmospheric lifetime.

Agricultural Impacts on Climate Change Major components of the GWI impact of Michigan agriculture include farming inputs (fuel, fertilizers, pesticides), soil C change, and fluxes of N2O and CH4. Nitrous oxide emissions represent the largest GWI in the KBS-LTER annual cropping systems, mainly resulting from high fertilizer inputs, but also from the cultivation of N-fixing crops. Improved N management thus represents one of the largest potentials for the mitigation of agricultural GHG emissions. An equally large mitigation potential exists where soils can be managed to sequester C via no-till management, cover crops, and the cultivation of perennial crops. CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

Agricultural Impacts on Climate Change Recent research at the KBS-LTER shows that nitrous oxide emissions increase with irrigation. N2O outgassing from groundwater Rainfed no-till cropping system stored 14 g CO2e m-2 yr-1 No-till system irrigated with 7.9” of water emitted 20 g CO2e m-2 yr-1 No-till system irrigated with 15.8” of water emitted 37 g CO2e m-2 yr-1 CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI Feb 2018 CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI Sigman, D. and Boyle, E. 2000. Glacial/interglacial variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Nature, 407: 859 - 869. CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI

CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT * May 11, 2018 * Petoskey, MI