Disturbances to Propagation CQ DX, CQ DX Ok, where’d everybody go? Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA k9la@arrl.net http://mysite.verizon.net/k9la PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Agenda Quick look at recent Cycle 24 activity Review WWV format & SWPC home page Disturbances - the big picture Disturbances - their impact to real-world operating Review of auroral oval images This presentation will be on the PVRC website visit http://www.pvrc.org/index.html click on the ‘PVRC Webinars’ link at the top PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Quick Look at Recent Cycle 24 Activity PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Cycle 24 - Region 1029 Sunspot Region 1029 rotated into view on October 23 It became the biggest active region of the year  It produced ten C-class solar flares from October 25-28. That more than tripled the number of C-class flares (three) previously detected in all of 2009. It helped 15m for CQ WW SSB K9LA Multi-Two worked 91 countries on 15m It rotated out of view on October 31 Region 1029 viewed on 27 October 2009 PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Millstone Hill Ionosonde Region 1029 rotated into view Early October was ‘iffy’ for 15m for those of us in the Midwest PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Things May Be Picking Up Smoothed sunspot number Nov08 1.75 Dec08 1.7 (NOAA prediction) Jan09 1.8 Feb09 1.9 Mar09 2.0 Apr09 2.2 Mar09 ??? Mar09 smoothed sunspot number will be available when the Nov09 monthly mean data is collected Nov09 is 4.4 so far Monthly Mean Oct09 10 Sep09 5 Monthly mean – average of the daily sunspot number over a month’s period Smoothed sunspot number – average of monthly means using data from six months behind to 6 months ahead of desired month PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Even More Activity Region 1029 persisted and came around again Rotated into view on November 14 But it fizzled out  Region 1030 produced some activity Region 1031 also produced some activity Two more regions numbered on November 18: 1032 and 1033 More sunspots!  Hopefully this activity will continue so that the November 2009 monthly mean sunspot number will be higher than the October 2009 monthly mean sunspot number Which will result in the March 2009 smoothed sunspot number being higher than the April 2009 smoothed sunspot number Result of increased solar activity is more disturbances to propagation And that’s the topic of tonight’s discussion PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Review WWV Format & SWPC Home Page PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

“New” WWV Format Changed on March 12, 2002 Three sections Current indices Summary of past 24 hours Forecast for next 24 hours More specific in terms of disturbances to propagation PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Sample Report Solar terrestrial indices for 23 May follow Solar flux 180 and mid-latitude A-index 43 The mid-latitude K-index at 1500 UTC on May 24 was 1 Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong Geomagnetic storms reaching the G3 level occurred Solar radiation storms reaching the S2 level occurred Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor Solar radiation storms reaching the S1 level are expected Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

SWPC Home Page http://www.swpc.noaa.gov PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

G, S, and R G refers to Geomagnetic Storms Caused by gusts in solar wind from CMEs (coronal mass ejections) and high speed streams from coronal holes Can cause auroral absorption, auroral-E, depleted F region ionization S refers to Solar Radiation Storms Caused by energetic protons from big solar flares Can increase D region absorption in the polar cap (PCA) R refers to Radio Blackouts Caused by electromagnetic radiation from big solar flares X-ray flares (.1-1 nm wavelengths) of X or M class Can increase D region absorption on daylight side of Earth For all three, scale is 1 to 5 1 is minor and 5 is extreme, and correspond to specific criteria Details at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/Data/info/WWVdoc.html PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Disturbances – the Big Picture X-ray radiation from solar flare – absorption on the daylight side of the Earth Protons from solar flare – absorption in the polar cap X marks the spot – the North magnetic pole X Geomagnetic storms – depressed F region MUFs at high and mid latitudes both day and night Geomagnetic storms – auroral absorption, auroral ionization PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Disturbances – Their Impact to Real-World Operating Track a Geomagnetic Storm and Look at W4ZV Contest Log PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

CME at Coronagraph from LASCO on SOHO Coronagraph is a telescope with an occulting disk to block out the Sun LASCO = Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph SOHO = Solar and Heliospheric Observatory is about 2.4 million miles from Earth on the line to the Sun halo CME at 0342 UTC on May 22, 2002 A ‘halo’ event means the CME explosion is seen all around the occulting disk, which indicates it is headed toward Earth PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

CME at ACE from ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) halo CME at 0342 UTC on May 22, 2002 dials at 1002 UTC on May 23, 2002 The ACE satellite is sitting ~ 1,000,000 miles from Earth on the line to the Sun Shock wave took about 30 hours to get to the ACE satellite – 92,000,000 miles in 30 hours is 532 km/sec Southward IMF (what the first dial measures) usually means trouble Normal speed is ~ 400 km/sec Dynamic pressure is particle density times the square of the speed PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

CME at Earth – K Indices halo CME at 0342 UTC on May 22, 2002 dials at 1002 UTC on May 23, 2002 elevated K indices Usually takes 30 minutes to 1 hour for shock wave to get from ACE to Earth 0-3 May 22 0-3 May 23 0-3 May 24 Meanook (Canada) K indices PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

CME at Earth - Ionosphere halo CME at 0342 UTC on May 22, 2002 result of elevated K indices elevated K indices 00 May 22 00 May 23 00 May 24 0-3 May 22 0-3 May 23 0-3 May 24 MUF(3000)F2 at mid-latitude Meanook (Canada) K indices PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

W4ZV WPX CW 2002 W4ZV set single-op 10m record in 2001 - planned to make a run at it in 2002 Halo CME at 0342 UTC on May 22, 2002 – 10m propagation to EU was poor details of this event are in the March 2003 issue of CQ PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

“Real-Time” View of F Region Depletion result of CME CME on Monday Sep 30, 2002 - storm hit Earth on Tuesday Oct 1 Higher bands took big dip due to F2 region depletion SSNe available at www.nwra-az.com/spawx/ssne24.html Also see July/August 2003 NCJ for more on SSNe SSNe uses F2 model of the ionosphere Varies sunspot number to make model agree with real-time ionosonde data PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Disturbances – Their Impact to Real-World Operating Track a Solar Radiation Storm (no log data) PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Solar Radiation Storm at GOES Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Proton flux PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Solar Radiation Storm at Earth 00 May 22 00 May 23 00 May 24 Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite riometer absorption Proton flux ( relative ionospheric opacity meter ) Energetic protons are fast, so the ionosphere could be affected in an hour or two PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Solar Radiation Storm at Earth 00 May 22 00 May 23 00 May 24 Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite riometer absorption Proton flux 00 May 22 00 May 23 00 May 24 increased absorption Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) MUF(3000)F2 at high latitude – so much D region absorption that ionosonde can’t “see” the F2 region PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Disturbances – Their Impact to Real-World Operating Look at Impact of Radio Blackout on ZF2RR Contest Log (can’t track Radio Blackout because we have no warning – electromagnetic radiation from solar flare arrives at same time as visual indication of solar flare) PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Radio Blackout on 10m X4.0 flare at 1638 UTC X1.9 flare at 1836 UTC looking for mults Dan N9XX/ZF2RR single band 10m low power – if it wasn’t for the solar flares, he probably would have broken the North America Low Power record PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Summary PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

G, S, R G = Geomagnetic Storm S = Solar Radiation Storm (PCAs) Caused by CMEs and coronal holes CMEs most prevalent around solar maximum Coronal holes most prevalent on decline S = Solar Radiation Storm (PCAs) Caused by energetic protons from big solar flares Most prevalent around solar maximum R = Radio Blackout Caused by electromagnetic radiation at X-ray wavelengths from big solar flares PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Impact In order of “least” impact to “most” impact Radio blackout (R) No warning, but usually short duration – an hour or two Lower frequencies impacted longer Only affects daylight side of Earth Solar radiation Storm (S) A couple hours warning, can last a day or two Only affects propagation across the polar cap Geomagnetic Storm (G) A day or two warning, can last for days Affects high and mid latitude ionosphere both day and night In general we want G, S, R rating to be 1 or less PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Caveat Are all geomagnetic storms bad? -- NO -- VHFer’s love them! And gradually evolving storms, driven by slowly increasing southward IMF, can increase nighttime low latitude F region ionization PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Review of Auroral Oval Images PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/pmap Each pass estimates total power into polar area - pull 1 of 10 canned pictures Black dots and solid black lines indicate electron energy and flux, respectively Detector measures particles up to ~20 KeV (down to 100km & cause visible aurora) Higher energy electrons that get down to D region are not measured These pictures do not directly tell us anything about absorption or auroral-E The colors indicate where visual aurora may occur, with orange indicating high probability PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Where Are the Problems? same night, same time (evening in the Midwest) DMSP photo (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program) Kp=4 same night, same time (evening in the Midwest) Bright discrete auroral forms - lots of E region ionization Absorption usually equatorward of these discrete forms For more details, visit mysite.verizon.net/k9la, click on the General link, and read A Look Inside the Auroral Zone Auroral zone is not necessarily full of ionization that degrades HF PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Q & A This PowerPoint presentation (without audio) is at http://mysite.verizon.net/k9la And stay tuned for another K9LA PVRC presentation in mid December: 160m Propagation PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA