Climate Science Research in Support of the Wind Power Industry Prepared for Visit to ISU by Florida Power and Light Wind resource availability Seasonal prediction Impacts of climate change Environmental impacts

In the Upper Midwest, Wind Resources are Influenced by: Seasonal pressure patterns Diurnal temperature stratification Buffalo Ridge Low-level jet El Niño/La Niña (?) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (?) North Atlantic Oscillation (?) Climate change (??)

“Given that a 1% error in wind speed estimates for a 100 MW wind generation facility can lead to losses approaching $12,000,000 over the lifetime of that plant, a better understanding of the physical and dynamic processes across the range of scales that create a particular wind climate is needed.” Draft recommendations, DOE Workshop on Research Needs for Wind Resource Characterization, 14-16 Jan 2008, Broomfield, CO

Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Wind Speeds Wind Speed (m/s) departures from monthly means from 70-m tall towers in Minnesota Klink, K., 2007: J. Appl. Meteor. Clim. 46, 446

Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Wind Speeds Wind Speed (m/s) departures from monthly means from 70-m tall towers in Minnesota Klink, K., 2007: J. Appl. Meteor. Clim. 46, 446

Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Wind Speeds

Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Wind Speeds

Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Wind Speeds

Seasonal Climate Prediction Multi-RCM Ensemble Downscaling (MRED) of Multi-GCM Seasonal Forecasts* Iowa State University Experimental Climate Prediction Center (UC San Diego) NOAA Climate Prediction Center Pacific Northwest National Laboratory * NOAA funding 2008-2011

Trends in Wind Speeds, 1973-2005* Observations do not agree with reanalysis * Pryor,Barthelmie, Takle, Anderson, 2008. EGU Annual Meeting, Vienna

North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) An international, multi-agency program to produce multiple realizations of future scenario climates at regional scales by use of global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs)

NARCCAP Plan A2 Emissions Scenario GFDL CCSM HADAM3 CGCM3 MM5 RegCM3 link to EU programs CGCM3 1960-1990 current 2040-2070 future Provide boundary conditions MM5 Iowa State/ PNNL RegCM3 UC Santa Cruz ICTP CRCM Quebec, Ouranos HADRM3 Hadley Centre RSM Scripps WRF NCAR/ Note: AGCM time slices to be included, too. Initial phase involves driving RCMs with reanalysis output. Reanalyzed climate , 1979-2000

Eugene S. Takle gstakle@iastate.edu 515-294-9871 Contact information: Eugene S. Takle gstakle@iastate.edu 515-294-9871 Professor of Atmospheric Science Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Professor of Aerospace Engineering (courtesy appointment) Director, ISU Climate Science Initiative