Impacts of the enlargements on the European economic pattern dr. László Jeney associate professor jeney@elte.hu Economic and Human Geography bachelor study programmes (BA) Spring term 2017/2018. CUB Department of Economic Geography and Futures Studies

Insufficient economic dynamism of European Union GDP growth rate 1950s, 1960s: economic miracles From 1970s: slower than USA, Japan + rather fluctuating After the turn of the new Millennium: GDP growth: 2,8% 1960s: Mass of guest workers From N Afr., TR, former YU, later from the other post-socialist countries too) – cultural and legal hampers of their integration Significant regional differences (per capita GDP, GDP growth) East accession countries: lagging economy  new challenges 2

The European Core Area Pentagon/Core Area: 20% Population: 40% GDP: 50% 3

Geographic shift of the economic core From Blue Banana (traditional core) to Golden Banana (European Sunbelt) 4

Geographic concentration of the economy still remained in the Core Economic development: GDP per capita Economic density: GDP per area 5

Key Factors of Urban Competitiveness in European Space Structure 6

The subject of research, basic assumptions New factors affecting the regional processes of East Central Europe at the turn of the millennium Transition (the end of the bipolar world system) Integration (accession to the European Union) Globalization Dynamic take-off, but cities and rural regions get different developmental impulses Dual effects on economic pattern of V4 Countries (trade-off theories) Convergence in pan-European relation (catching-up) Divergence in urban–rural relation 7

Database used and the territorial frame Economic development measured only with per capita GDP At current market prices in € Examined period: 1995–2013 Data source: Eurostat http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/ East Central Europe Broader Cultural, historical relationships V4 Countries Narrower Current political states (CZ, HU, PL, SK) Regional level: NUTS3 8

Definition of the Concept of Urban and Rural Regions Urban regions = cities Population >500 thousand + Bratislava Without suburbs Regions at NUTS3 level (Bratislava  Bratislavský County) Rural regions = complementary regions ≠ Villages ≠ Regions with rural characters (e. g. sparse population, importance of agriculture) 9

Cities as positive residuums of the East Central European space structure population 2004 (million) GDP 2004 (billion €) per capita GDP 2013 (€ per capita) GDP growth 1995–2013 (%) V4 (NUTS3) Total 64 407 6377 206 Cities 8 106 13368 237 Relative state of cities 12% 26% 210% +31%-point EU (NUTS3) 20% 29% 141% +8%-point USA (SMA) 38% 49% 129% Canada (CMA) 45% 54% 120% Measuring Urban–Rural Duality DUR = xU/xR: =urban–rural duality index xU: average per capita GDP of cities in a country xR: average per capita GDP of rural regions in a country 10

Post-socialist countries characterized with growing urban–rural dualism Change of Urban–Rural Duality in EU Member States, 1995–2013 Chiefly the outstanding of capitals More remarkable in case of underdeveloped, catching-up V4 countries than older members Differences of Urban–Rural Duality in Member States of EU, 2013 11 Source of data: EuroStat

Relationship Between State of Development and Urban–Rural Duality for EU Members, 2013 12 Source of data: EuroStat

Growing Importance of Cities in European Economic Pattern Most of the cities over average Studying success of cities: key issue for current European regional trends and regional policy Some countries Only the cities are over average (e. g. V4) Other inequality factors are more important (Germany, Italy, Romania, Spain) State of cities and rural regions as compared to the national averages of the countries, 2013 13

Post-socialist cities are to join to the 2nd level of European city-network Studying success of cities: key issue for current European regional trends and regional policy New European models on Peripheries should adjust the classic urban zone of Blue Banana Sunbelt or (Golden Banana) Central European Boomerang Post-socialist cities: new development wave (similar to Southern Periphery) based chiefly on international investments 14

Cities and NUTS2 regions: gerrymandering for development Budapest, Warsaw Suburban zone  lower common average Initially: better position for EU-supports Later: due to the urban development  no supports Prague Suburban zone: target area of EU supports 15

BUT: weak position of V4 cities in the European Urban hierarchy Worse position of V4: V4 countries: 508 company from the 15 thousand largest company of EU Air traffic Relative better position of V4 International meetings (better position) 16

The sectorial background of the urban–rural economic development inequalities dr. László Jeney associate professor jeney@elte.hu Economic and Human Geography bachelor study programmes (BA) Spring term 2017/2018. CUB Department of Economic Geography and Futures Studies

V4: success of cities not independent of the shift of their sectoral structure Increase of urban–rural inequality is mainly tertiary based Industrial renewal hide in the background of fine differences among rural regions Agriculture Industry Services Cities 1995–2013. 1.3 1.8 2.6 Rural regions 1995–2013. 1.9 2.1 Growth Indexes of Gross Value Added (GVA) in the Sectors in V4 Countries, 1995–2013. 18

Regional and Sectoral Shifts within Industry after Transition (1992–1998): The Case of Hungary

Regional Shifts in Hungarian Industry, 1992–1998. Employment: 995 790 750 900 BUDAPEST (%) 29 22 Industrial output 23 524 33 316 36 24 Industrial export 5 449 16 371 FEJÉR county (%) 7 38 17 20

Sectoral Shifts in Hungarian Industry, 1992–1998. Industries 1992 1998 Employment Machinery and equipment (%) 21 25 Textile. wearing apparel. leather products (%) 15 17 Food. beverages and tobacco products (%) 18 16 Output 13 36 23 Chemical industry (%) 19 Electricity. gas. steam and water supply (%) 20 12 Export 27 61 8 21

Changes in Regional Industrial Specialization in Hungary, 1992–1998 Changes in Regional Industrial Specialization in Hungary, 1992–1998. Hirschman–Herfindahl index 1992 1998 employment output export 22 22

Regional Differences of the Economic Development Level in Hungary, 1998. (NUTS3) 23 23

Conclusions Postsocialist countries: characterized with growing urban–rural dualism Chiefly the outstanding of capitals More remarkable in case of underdeveloped, catching-up V4 countries than older members Not only the urban–rural inequality increases, but its role is more and more appreciated in overall regional inequalities V4: success of cities not independent of the shift of their sectoral structure Increase of urban–rural inequality is mainly tertiary based Industrial renewal hide in the background of fine differences among rural regions 24 24