Validation of GCM, and the need of High resolution atmospheric and hydrological model Vicente Barros and Mariano Re San José de Costa Rica 28 May 2003.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES OVER SOUTH AMERICA IN THE SUMMER SEASON IN SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti CENTRO DE PREVISÃO.
Advertisements

Regional climate change over southern South America: evolution of mean climate and extreme events Silvina A. Solman CIMA (CONICET-UBA) Buenos Aires ARGENTINA.
GCM Scenarios for Regional Studies over West Africa Gregory S. Jenkins Department of Meteorology Penn State University.
Synoptic, Topographic, and Diurnal Effects on Summer Convection in South America Ulrike Romatschke University of Washington, University of Vienna Robert.
Challenges in the study of the American Monsoon Systems Carolina Vera CIMA (UBA-CONICET) DCAO/Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Consequences of Global climate Change. Impact of Global Warming Sea level rising Altered precipitation pattern Change in soil moisture content Increase.
Delayed onset of the South American Monsoon during the Last Glacial Maximum Kerry H. Cook and Edward K. Vizy, Cornell University I. INTRODUCTION Climate.
Extreme Convection Near the Himalayas and Andes Gerald R. North Symposium, Texas A&M University, College Station, June 8, 2009 Robert A. Houze, Jr. Ulrike.
Extreme Convection in South America as Seen by TRMM Ulrike Romatschke 1, 2 and Robert A. Houze, Jr. 1 1 University of Washington, 2 University of Vienna.
WCRP Metrics/Methodologies for Extremes September 2010 Based in part on … Some Scale Considerations for Predicting/Projecting Extreme Precipitation William.
Diurnal circulations in Southern California Mimi Hughes and Alex Hall.
The importance of clouds. The Global Climate System
Pacific vs. Indian Ocean warming: How does it matter for global and regional climate change? Joseph J. Barsugli Sang-Ik Shin Prashant D. Sardeshmukh NOAA-CIRES.
SUMMARY OF THE MESA MODELING RELATED ACTIVITIES DISCUSSED IN VMP8.
THE INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND THE SOUTH AMERICAN MONSOON SYSTEM Anita Drumond and Tércio Ambrizzi University of São Paulo São Paulo, 2007
Hurricanes in Other Climates Robert Korty Texas A&M.
South American Monsoon System: Past, Present, and Future: A33D-01 Developments on the functioning, characteristics and variability of the South American.
Climate Baseline Scenarios and GCMs performance By Mario Bidegain (Facultad de Ciencias – UR LA32/LA26) Ines Camilloni (Facultad de Ciencias – UBA LA26)
Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC/INPE) São Paulo, Brazil ( Integrated observed and modeled atmospheric water budget.
Climate of North America 101 What are the major controls on North American climate? What is the dominant flow pattern across North America in winter? How.
Diurnal Water and Energy Cycles over the Continental United States Alex Ruane John Roads Scripps Institution of Oceanography / UCSD April 28 th, 2006 This.
Dynamical downscaling of future climates Steve Hostetler, USGS Jay Alder, OSU/USGS Andrea Schuetz, USGS/OSU Environmental Computing Center, COAS/OSU.
Model representation of the diurnal cycle and moist surges along the Gulf of California during NAME Emily J. Becker and Ernesto Hugo Berbery Department.
Diurnal Variations of Tropical Convection Ohsawa, T., H. Ueda, T. Hayashi, A. Watanabe, and J. Matsumoto, 2001 : Diurnal Variations of Convective Activity.
Southern South American climate trends Inés Camilloni – Moira Doyle University of Buenos Aires Second AIACC Regional Workshop for Latin America and the.
Inter-El Niño variability and its impact on the LLJ East of the Andes during Austral Summer Tércio Ambrizzi and Gyrlene A. M. da Silva Department of Atmospheric.
3rd Intl TRMM Sci Conf 8 February 2008 Las Vegas, NV The Diurnal Cycle of Convection over the Northern South China Sea Richard H. Johnson Paul E. Ciesielski.
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Dr. Daniela Jacob Regional climate modelling Daniela Jacob.
Trends in Tropical Water Vapor ( ): Satellite and GCM Comparison Satellite Observed ---- Model Simulated __ Held and Soden 2006: Robust Responses.
NARCCAP WRF Simulations L. Ruby Leung Pacific Northwest National Laboratory NARCCAP Users Meeting February , 2008 Boulder, CO.
© Crown copyright Met Office Downscaling ability of the HadRM3P model over North America Wilfran Moufouma-Okia and Richard Jones.
Lecture 11 Picking up pieces from previous lectures + – result of surface force balance – scales of motion – mesoscale systems: sea breeze, land breeze.
Precipitation efficiency and its dependence on physical factors A look into the cloud response to climate warming Chung-Hsiung Sui 1 Institute of Hydrological.
The diurnal cycle and propagation of convection in Africa Arlene Laing National Center for Atmospheric Research.
The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 20 December 2010 For more information,
Hurricanes and Global Warming Kerry Emanuel Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation Based on CMORPH Vernon E. Kousky, John E. Janowiak and Robert Joyce Climate Prediction Center, NOAA.
Role of cold pool formation on the diurnal cycle of precipitation over the maritime continent Tomonori Sato (CCSR, Univ of Tokyo) Hiroaki Miura (JAMSTEC.
NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center Dr. Lee Tryhorn NOAA Climate Literacy Workshop April 2010 NOAA Northeast Regional Climate.
Key ingredients in global hydrological response to external forcing Response to warming => Increased horizontal moisture fluxes => Poleward expansion of.
Regional Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest Eric Salathé Climate Impacts Group University of Washington With: Cliff Mass, Patrick Zahn, Rick Steed.
ESSL Holland, CCSM Workshop 0606 Predicting the Earth System Across Scales: Both Ways Summary:Rationale Approach and Current Focus Improved Simulation.
The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 2 November 2015 For more information,
Cécile Hannay, Julio Bacmeister, Rich Neale, John Truesdale, Kevin Reed, and Andrew Gettelman. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder EGU Meeting,
The North American Monsoons (NAM) can provide upwards of 70% of the annual precipitation to the southwest United States and Mexico. Already susceptible.
Shifting the diurnal cycle of parameterized deep convection over land
Tropical and subtropical convection in South Asia and South America
Overview of Downscaling
Daylength Local Mesoscale Winds Chinook Winds (Foehn) Loma, MT: January 15, 1972, the temperature rose from -54 to 49°F (-48 to 9°C), a 103°F (58°C)
Verification of dynamically downscaled results around Japan Islands
Richard H. Johnson Colorado State University
The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status
Ulrike Romatschke University of Washington, University of Vienna
North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program
Recent Climate Change Modeling Results
The Experimental Climate Prediction Center Regional Spectral Model (ECPC-RSM) Contribution to the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation
Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas Sumant Nigam
Laurent Li Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, IPSL/CNRS, Paris
Recent Climate Change Modeling Results
Modeling of land surface processes in La Plata Basin
On HRM3 (a.k.a. HadRM3P, a.k.a. PRECIS) North American simulations
NAME Tier 1 Atmospheric/Ocean Process and Budget Studies
Session D6: Process Based Evaluation of the West African Monsoon in CORDEX Projections Goal: Assess components of the West African Monsoon that are both.
Modeling the Atmos.-Ocean System
Issues for regional modeling
Changes in surface climate of the tropical Pacific
Ming-Dah Chou Department of Atmospheric Sciences
Korea Ocean Research & Development Institute, Ansan, Republic of Korea
Assessing the Water Cycle in Regional Climate Simulation
Presentation transcript:

Validation of GCM, and the need of High resolution atmospheric and hydrological model Vicente Barros and Mariano Re San José de Costa Rica 28 May 2003

Forcings of the Plata River level Tributarios Vientos Onda de marea

Tributaries: -The Plata basin covers 3. 2 M Tributaries: -The Plata basin covers 3.2 M. Km² - Runoff depends on Precipitation and evaporation (Temperature) - How good are precipitation and temperature scenarios?

Precipitation Climate minus simulated precipitation scenarios

Validation of climate models: precipitation Difference in annual precipitation between HADCM3 experiment and observed data (mm/day) ~ 30% less than observed

Precipitation features (PFs) for 5 x 5 degree boxes Seasonal distribution of during Dec.1997 to Nov.2000 observed by the TRMM Precipitation Radar (E. Zipser, G. Mota, and S. Nesbitt, 2002) For more details about PF definition see Nesbitt et al., 2000, J. Climate, 13, 4087-4106. The results presented by Ed Zipser show us the importance of the Mesoscales Convective system activity in producing precipitation over la Plata Basin. These figures are showing the seasonal distribution of PFs for 5 x 5 degree boxes of lat/lon during Dec.1997 to Nov.2000 observed by the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) associated with all types of MCS showing that they are very active over northwestern South America an la Plata Basin area. However , when only the more intense MCS are considered, their activity is maximum over the la Plata Basin all year around but with more activity during the transition seasons MCSs appear to be maintained by the advection of warm moist tropical air via the low-level jets. Evidence was presented showing that the SALLJ was present prior to the onset of convection, with 80% of the MCSs occurring during periods with intense northerly low-level flow. The observed diurnal cycle of MCS activity includes an onset period between 1500-2100 LT, a mature phase at night and a dissipation phase in the morning. The diurnal cycle as identified with observed rainfall and TRMM products in southern South America (south of 15S) shows a nocturnal maximum consistent with that of the MCS activity. In contrast, over most of the Amazon rainfall shows a maximum in early afternoon. There is a need for more observations of rainfall in order to validate TRMM and other satellite-derived precipitation products.

This figures shows that precipitation associated with MCS explain over the la Plata Basin more than 70% of total seasonal precipitation. This conclusion is not too encouraging as models are doing relatively bad predicting those systems. However there is some hope for improvements as Ed also showed that South American LLJ has a key role organizing the Convection. MCSs appear to be maintained by the advection of warm moist tropical air via the low-level jets. Evidence was presented showing that the SALLJ was present prior to the onset of convection, with 80% of the MCSs occurring during periods with intense northerly low-level flow.

850 hPa Circulation Composites - January Warm Events Cold Events

Precipitation is too understimated by GCM: Some physical processes are misrepresented Difficulties with downscaling and Perturbation techniques Hope: CRM models

GCM runned with low resolution Do not resolve Meso Convective Systems Do not represent topography correctly Parameterization of convective activity? Remote ocean forcing? Frequency and intensity of synoptic perturbations?

SST at Niño 3.4 from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis

SST at Niño 3.4 from HadCm3 SRES A2 experiment SST at Niño 3.4 from GFDL SRES A2 experiment

ETA MODEL EXPERIMENT: Domain and features Workstation ETA Adapted by M. Pyle (NOAA) Horizontal resolution: Grid of 1°lat.X 1°long Vertical: 60 levels Time step: 360 s Running in a System CRAY, Origin 2000. 40 processors Experiment: 10 years with NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis

Mean sea level: IPCC Scenarios

Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The Scientific Basis                                                                                                    Get Javascript   Other reports in this collection Figure 11.12: Global average sea level rise 1990 to 2100 for the SRES scenarios. Table of contents Other reports in this collection                                             

Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The Scientific Basis                                                                                                    Get Javascript Other reports in this collection Figure 11.13: Sea level change in metres over the 21st century resulting from thermal expansion and ocean circulation changes calculated from AOGCM experiments following the IS92a scenario Table of contents Other reports in this collection                                             

Wind effect on water level is not linear Thus: The mean water level has to be calculated by running the hydrodinamic model forced by instantaneous winds