Civilization Timeline (all dates estimations) Hunting-Gathering 195,000 – 10,000 BC Agricultural Revolution ~10,000 BC Industrial ~1750/60 Computer Revolution 1930-40s, 1980s, 1995 You are here
Computer Revolution (1930s-40s, 1970s, 1990s) Computers and Globalization Computing Power Ease of travel Ease of global finance Communications Ability to communicate instantly Ability to communicate globally Information Ability to share large amounts of information with anyone, anywhere Global spread of technology
Impact of Globalization and Technological Change Late 20th-early 21st Century Marxism vs. Capitalism: Capitalism Won Collapse of USSR and communist allies East Asian strategy success: Accept Globalization Rapid Growth in Developing World Rise of China and India Slower Growth in Industrial World Decline of manufacturing? Competition or Technology? Great Recession 2008 sharpens the new argument: Liberal Capitalism vs. State Capitalism
Share of World GDP, 1-1600 Angus Maddison Data Light Blue: Europe Dark Blue: US Green: Middle East
Share of World GDP, 1-1950 Angus Maddison Data
Share of World GDP: 1-2008 Angus Maddison Data
Wealth in the Developing World: Extreme Poverty Rates World Bank Data
Wealth in the Developing World; Slower Growth in Industrial World GDP Growth By Region 2015 From The Economist
Comparing Continents
Good News; Bad News
US: Percent of Labor Force by Sector
US Data
Sources for Previous Slide on US Louis Johnson. “History lessons: Understanding the decline in manufacturing” Minnesota Post. 2/22/12https://www.minnpost.com/macro-micro-minnesota/2012/02/history-lessons-understanding-decline-manufacturing 1840–1900: Robert E. Gallman and Thomas J. Weiss. "The Service Industries in the Nineteenth Century." In Production and Productivity in the Service Industries, ed. Victor R. Fuchs, 287-352. New York: Columbia University Press (for NBER), 1969. 1900–1940: John W. Kendrick, Productivity Trends in the United States. Princeton: Princeton University Press (for NBER), 1961. 1950–2010: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts.
Manufacturing in Industrial World
Results of Change Growth in developing world Industrial World Trade Manufacturing growth Integration in world economy Success of economies with greater state intervention? Industrial World Decline in manufacturing Shift to services/technology Political Result: Rise of Populism
Globalization vs. Populism: US and Europe turn Against Globalization “Trump prepared to hit China with $60 billion in annual tariffs” Washington Post, March 19, 2018
China Champions Globalization (with limits: state intervention)
US Out of TPP; CPTPP Lives On Trans Pacific Partnership becomes Comprehensive and Progressive TPP