The Economic Impacts of Climate Change The Center for Integrative Environmental Research (CIER) finds that economic costs will be far-reaching nationwide if no action is taken. The impact of climate change events will affect both the natural environment and existing infrastructure Effects will occur throughout the country Be unevenly distributed across regions of the economy/society Negative climate impacts will outweigh benefits Climate impacts will place strain on public sector budgets Secondary effects: higher prices, reduced income, job losses Source: Matthias Ruth, Dana Coelho, and Daria Karetnikov. A Review and Assessment by the Center for Integrative Environmental Research (CIER) at the University of Maryland, October 2007. Center for Integrative Environmental Research, University of Maryland.

So projected economic impacts will grow over time. Impacts in the U.S. Effects experienced across all regions, but the severity will be “unevenly distributed across regions and within the economy and society.1” For sectors of the economy that provide essential goods and services, the negative effects will be significantly greater than the positive. The impact of climate change will severely strain government budgets – local, state and federal. So projected economic impacts will grow over time. 1Matthias Ruth, Dana Coelho, and Daria Karetnikov. A Review and Assessment by the Center for Integrative Environmental Research (CIER) at the University of Maryland, October 2007. Center for Integrative Environmental Research, University of Maryland 2 Ibid.

Secondary effects: Higher prices Reduced income Job losses2 1Matthias Ruth, Dana Coelho, and Daria Karetnikov. A Review and Assessment by the Center for Integrative Environmental Research (CIER) at the University of Maryland, October 2007. Center for Integrative Environmental Research, University of Maryland

What economic sectors & Industries are expected to be most directly affected? 1. Agriculture – Why? In some parts of the nation, growing conditions will improve as temperatures continue to rise - colder regions become warmer Other geographic areas are projected to see worsening conditions: scaricity ofwater resources rainfall becomes more frequent (or infrequent) land becomes unsuitable for farming increase in the spread of pests and plant diseases (CIER)

Natural Resources Defense Council Natural Resources Defense Council. Climate Change Threatens Health, http://www.nrdc.org/health/climate/drought.asp

Figure 6. Projected changes in agricultural production by 2080 due to climate change. Source: Cline. 2007. Projections assume a uniform 15% increase in yields due to the fertilization effect of rising carbon dioxide in the atmosphere on some plant species. (Note that this coarse-grain analysis does not project local-scale impacts which require geographically-specific analysis.) Source: www.ccafs.cgiar.org/commission

Since 1890, average global temperatures have risen by 20 fahrenheit Changes in drought and rainfall patterns also coincide with warming trends over the last century. Since 1890, average global temperatures have risen by 20 fahrenheit https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/thumbnails/image/2016gistempupdateblack.gif

Changes in drought and rainfall patterns also coincide with warming trends over the last century. What does this pattern affect? https://youtu.be/s3RWTTtPg8E Source: https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-noaa-to-announce-2016-global-temperatures-climate-conditions https://youtu.be/x1SgmFa0r04 A visual of carbon emissions globally over a one-year period.

Union of Concerned Scientists, 2008, “Rapidly Rising Seas: What the Science Tells Us,” http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/legacy/assets/documents/global_warming/Causes-of-Sea-Level-Rise.pdf

“From 1993 to 2008, the global rate has risen to 0. 11 to 0 “From 1993 to 2008, the global rate has risen to 0.11 to 0.13 inch per year,”(Union of Concerned Scientists). At this rate – an increase of an average .12 inches per year – the 20 inch threshold wouldn’t be reached in 2100; but with accelerated rates of sea level rise, it could. Many of the CIER study’s cost estimates of climate change related damage – made ten years ago – have turned out to be quite accurate. Ex: the study predicted the cost of and type of protections that would be needed to protect vulnerable coastal areas. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2008, “Rapidly Rising Seas: What the Science Tells Us,” http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/legacy/assets/documents/global_warming/Causes-of-Sea-Level-Rise.pdf

But as a result of a warming climate, the glaciers are disappearing. Western U.S.: A recent New York Times report1 notes that the glaciers of Glacier National Park in Montana are rapidly disappearing, threatening the ecosystem of the Western U.S. The report notes: “A century ago, this sweep of mountains on the Canadian border boasted some 150 ice sheets, many of them scores of feet thick, plastered across summits and tucked into rocky fissures high above parabolic valleys. Today, perhaps 25 survive. In 30 years, there may be none”. Following the winter thaw, melting ice provides a vital source of water for residents and farmers downstream. But as a result of a warming climate, the glaciers are disappearing. 1Source: MICHAEL WINES “Climate Change Threatens to Strip the Identity of Glacier National Park.” New York Times, November 22, 2014.

…the peak flow of water from the melting glaciers is starting much earlier in Spring and ending sooner – before crops are ready to be harvested: Leading to: water shortages when demand is at its peak imbalance in the demand and supply for water. Other sectors of the economy affected? 2. Recreation – ski resorts: “Mountain snow packs are shrinking. In recent decades, rising winter temperatures have increasingly changed snows to rain.” Tourism $$ shrink 3. Population: Many densely populated cities & towns south of glaciers; including a very large number of businesses. 4. Wildlife/ecosystems: as habitats disappear, species die out or are threatened.

Northeastern U.S. 2. Infrastructure/buildings/transportation systems especially in coastal areas are highly vulnerable. Value of residential and commercial property in northeast was estimated by CIER to be $4 trillion in 2004; a decade later, this value has grown significantly. CIER study in 2004 predicted damages of a category 4 hurricane hitting a major metropolitan area as costing between $50 and $60 billion in insurance losses. The estimated losses to property and businesses from Hurricane Sandy in 2012 reached an estimated $65 billion.

Rising government debt resulting from need to invest in rebuilding and repairing damaged infrastructure. Vulnerability of a significant percentage of nation’s population living in coastal areas to lost jobs and business resulting from a severe weather event or disaster

Example: Economic Costs of Hurricane Sandy The estimated losses to property, businesses and infrastructure from Hurricane Sandy in 2012: Total $65 billion1 New Jersey: $38.6 billion2 New York: $32 billion- statewide; $19 billion in New York City3 MTA: $4.75 billion in infrastructure losses; $246 million in lost revenue2. Predicted losses from sea level rise: The study predicted (in 2004) a sea level rise in the northeast-mid Atlantic region of 20 inches by year 2100. 1 USA Today, “Hurricane Sandy, drought cost U.S. $100 billion.” Jan. 25, 2013 2 CNN, “Hurricane Sandy Fast Facts,” Nov. 5, 2014 3 New York Times, “Hurricane Sandy’s Rising Costs”, November 27, 2012

2. Income loss Losses to tourism industries from snow melt; flood; drought. Losses to agricultural industries from lower output of food. Result for consumers?? Losses to fisheries from depleted species. Increase in number of climate refugees. All of these impacts translate to $billions in lost income to businesses and workers as jobs once in demand dwindle with weak business conditions.

How do you see these costs affecting U.S. and global economic growth? In what ways do you think that growth will be affected? Are there any ways to slow the impact or reverse it? Ideas??

Quantifying the Economic Cost of Climate Change One estimate of how to measure the Economic Costs of climate change has been developed by public policy researcher Quantifying the Economic Cost of Climate Change https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dG2BfpTkxs (first 10 minutes) Robin Hahnel on the Political Economy of Climate Change 1. Impact of warming on global economic output http://news.stanford.edu/news/2015/october/videos/1593.html 2. PBS video on evidence globally: PBS Global Warming The Signs and the Science https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xVQnPytgwQ0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNYZJD_llno