Fragility – Implications for Peace, Security, and Sustainable Development | Development Dialogue James Michel - April 16, 2018

Why This Report? It reminds that fragility poses a threat to increased human security and well being. It describes the international response to that threat - fragmented, uncertain, and often ineffective. It explores how we can better manage fragility and promote resilience, thereby furthering peace, security, and sustainable development. https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/180108_Michel_ManagingFragility_Web.pdf?OLXbMuog_Hr32uJVdQLKZ79kwFD6wr9E

Background ARMED CONFLICTS, 1946-2014 Source: Uppsala Data Conflict Program/Peace Research Institute Oslo Armed Conflict Dataset.

Background Source: Uppsala Data Conflict Program One-Sided Violence Dataset.

Background TRENDS IN TERRORISM, 1970-2016 Source: National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), 2017, Global Terrorism Database. Retrieved from https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd

TRENDS IN DEMOCRACY & AUTOCRACY Background TRENDS IN DEMOCRACY & AUTOCRACY Source: “Global Democracy and Autocracy, 1649-2013,” Polity IV Project, Center for Systemic Peace.

GDP PER CAPITA BY REGIONS (1820-2014) Background GDP PER CAPITA BY REGIONS (1820-2014) Graph is a representation of data from Maddison, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective, 2001.

Characteristics of Fragility Poor governance Limited institutional capacity Low social cohesion Weak legitimacy Contribute to: Impeded or eroded social contract Diminished resilience Insecurity, poverty and deprivation Vulnerability to conflict, forced migration, epidemics, organized crime, and terrorism

PEOPLE IN POVERTY: FRAGILE VS STABLE COUNTRIES  Poverty and Fragility PEOPLE IN POVERTY: FRAGILE VS STABLE COUNTRIES Source: Laurence Chandy, Natasha Ledlie, and Veronika Penciakova, The Final Countdown: Prospects for Ending Extreme Poverty by 2030 (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2013), 14.

Peace, Terrorism, and Fragility COMPARATIVE RANKINGS, 2017 FRAGILE STATES INDEX (1-10) GLOBAL PEACE INDEX (OUT OF 163) GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX SOUTH SUDAN 160 14 SOMALIA 158 7 CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC 155 19 YEMEN 159 6 SUDAN 18 SYRIA 163 4 DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO 153 13 CHAD 135 34 AFGHANISTAN 162 2 IRAQ 161 1

Definitions USAID – Fragility is the extent to which state-society relations fail to produce outcomes that are considered to be effective and legitimate. UNDP – Fragile contexts include those countries and territories experiencing armed conflict, emerging from armed conflict, or affected by acute political, social and economic vulnerability and susceptible to chronic forms of organized criminal violence. Fragility Study Group – Fragility is the absence or breakdown of the of a social contract between people and their government. World Bank – A fragile state is one having either (a) a composite CPIA rating of 3.2 or less or (b) the presence of a UN and/or regional peacekeeping or peacebuilding mission during the past three years.

Better Definitions Fragility is the combination of exposure to risk and insufficient coping capacity of the state, system, and/or communities to manage, absorb or mitigate those risks. Fragility [is] when sustainable socio-economic development requires greater emphasis on complementary peacebuilding and statebuilding activities such as building inclusive political settlements, security, justice, jobs, good management of resources, and accountable and fair service delivery.

Fragility Study Group Conclusion Across the U.S. Government, there is no clear or shared view of why, how and when to engage fragile states. These problems are not unique to the United States; no state or international body has fully cracked the fragility code.

Lessons Learned Focus on specific factors that most impede stability and development. Be sensitive to gaps in local capacity, security, and legitimacy. Emphasize inclusive local processes to identify what is important, build trust, and maintain local ownership and responsibility. Recognize that financial and technical assistance cannot substitute for political commitment and a secure environment. Effective measures beyond aid are needed. Timely action can prevent a crisis. At the same time, transitions from fragility to resilience take a long time.

Recommendations for the United States Mainstream fragility issues in US foreign policy; abandon country labeling; emphasize prevention; integrate in normal channels of diplomacy and cooperation. Strengthen and streamline early warning and coordination mechanisms  while empowering operating agencies. Obtain flexible budget authority to enable timely response, adaptation, and continuity of effort. Invest in human capacity – skills, language, availability for lengthy assignments, career development. Establish an early warning system. Provide leadership to strengthen international response: improved New Deal compacts, greater harmonization, productive UN meetings.

Update UN Secretary General Report and High Level General Assembly Session on Sustaining Peace Steven Pinker, Enlightenment Now UN and World Bank, Pathways for Peace Geoffrey Gertz and Homi Kharas, Leave No Country Behind USAID reorganization, Associate Administer for Relief, Resilience, and Response Rick Barton, Peace Works Commission on State Fragility, Growth and Development, Escaping the Fragility Trap

Thank You