FSNWG Adaptation Learning Programme 29th September 2016 Decision making with a climate lens: Developing the National Seasonal Agricultural Planner in Kenya What will we present in this session - a user based perspective, evidence on what has been working well, learning for future improvements for CIS Q&A as we go along Sticky notes – we need your feedback and questions and will collect at the end FSNWG Adaptation Learning Programme 29th September 2016

Value of climate information is realised when it: Is ‘translated’ to relate to local livelihoods, knowledge, experience, levels of uncertainty Recognises knowledge and capacity of users to: Understand and adapt to the reality of short term variability & long term climate change Understand and use forecasts, probabilities for decision making Generate local climate knowledge Record & use climate data – contributing to localised / right-scaled information Value of climate information is realised when it: Listens and responds to locally expressed needs And when it informs decisions Many ways to do this at different timescales. PSP is one Point 1: Translation means converting the information into forms that can be easily understood in the local context Point 2: When climate information listens and responds to locally expressed needs, then it is adequately put to use. Point 3: Key considerations for accessibility include communication in local languages and using communication systems that reach different users (considering technology they have access to e.g. radios, mobiles phones; local communication channels e.g. community meetings, religious gatherings; presentation formats e.g. text only, pictures, graphs, symbols) etc Point 4, sub-point 4: Localised e.g. using recorded data to develop agro-met. analyses for the local area. It can build up the observational data record and used to downscale met. forecasts Is accessible to everyone who needs it (communication channels, language…)

Why National Seasonal Agricultural Planner? Bringing together national stakeholders to discuss & interpret seasonal forecasts for decision making on: National level plans & actions Support needed and linkages in different counties, agro- climatic zones Feed into county to community level processes (PSP/CCOF), plans & actions Began in OND 2014, up to current season Mention valuing variability and pastoralists Point 1: Uncertainties and risks are due to climate and other factors that affect their lives and livelihoods Point 2: Decisions are based on their knowledge, experience, capacity and access to services and resources Point 3: Climate change exacerbates vulnerabilities, across different timescales, levels and livelihoods Point 4: indirectly introduces adaptive capacity and the CBA flower

Who has been involved? Ministries of Environment, Mineral Resources and Regional Development Authorities (KMD) Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries Mention valuing variability and pastoralists Point 1: Uncertainties and risks are due to climate and other factors that affect their lives and livelihoods Point 2: Decisions are based on their knowledge, experience, capacity and access to services and resources Point 3: Climate change exacerbates vulnerabilities, across different timescales, levels and livelihoods Point 4: indirectly introduces adaptive capacity and the CBA flower NDMA, World Vision, FAO, USAID, Gender and Climate Change Network, Transparency International, Acre Africa, Chase Bank, Centaury Microfinance… Especially useful in discussing agricultural implications of seasonal forecasts with consideration of markets (input supply to sale of produce) & linkage to private sector (insurance, banks…)

Contents of National Seasonal Agricultural Planner

Seasonal climate outlook Analogue year - These conditions are similar to those we saw during the short rains of 1998 and to a lesser degree 2010. Mention valuing variability and pastoralists Point 1: Uncertainties and risks are due to climate and other factors that affect their lives and livelihoods Point 2: Decisions are based on their knowledge, experience, capacity and access to services and resources Point 3: Climate change exacerbates vulnerabilities, across different timescales, levels and livelihoods Point 4: indirectly introduces adaptive capacity and the CBA flower

What does it mean for agriculture? Interpreting agricultural implications for the coming season through reflecting on the: Past (analogue year) Seasonal outlook Mention valuing variability and pastoralists Point 1: Uncertainties and risks are due to climate and other factors that affect their lives and livelihoods Point 2: Decisions are based on their knowledge, experience, capacity and access to services and resources Point 3: Climate change exacerbates vulnerabilities, across different timescales, levels and livelihoods Point 4: indirectly introduces adaptive capacity and the CBA flower

Interpreting climate information for agriculture Past (analogue year) Mention valuing variability and pastoralists Point 1: Uncertainties and risks are due to climate and other factors that affect their lives and livelihoods Point 2: Decisions are based on their knowledge, experience, capacity and access to services and resources Point 3: Climate change exacerbates vulnerabilities, across different timescales, levels and livelihoods Point 4: indirectly introduces adaptive capacity and the CBA flower

Interpreting climate information for agriculture Linked to seasonal forecast Cropping Advice – Below Normal Rainfall (40% probability over most of Kenya) Crop types Selection   Agronomy Pest and diseases Weather related disasters Soil and Water conservation Post -harvest management Marketing Other comments Cereals- eg Maize, wheat, rice, sorghum, millet Plant early maturing high yielding, hybrid varieties from registered stockists. Contact extension officers to select suitable variety. Early land preparation and early planting recommended for best results. Farmers should use adequate inputs such as farm yard manure. Possible cases of streaks, stalk borers, army warms. Ensure adequate spraying with recommended pesticides. Dry conditions during flowering may affect yield of crops such as maize Places with higher rains: Consider enhanced rain and water harvesting and conservation May not be a serious problem Commodity prices may go up due to reduced crop production; farmers should enhance food storage for home consumption Expected Poor rainfall distribution may affect crops yields; consider crop diversification, insurance and other mitigation measures. Legumes eg beans, cowpeas, grams, groundnuts Plant early maturing high yielding, hybrid varieties from registered stockists. Early land preparation and early planting recommended for best results Possible increased cases of root rots; more pests such as ball worms, thrifts, aphids. Ensure adequate spraying with recommended pesticides. As above Poor rainfall distribution may affect crops yields Mention valuing variability and pastoralists Point 1: Uncertainties and risks are due to climate and other factors that affect their lives and livelihoods Point 2: Decisions are based on their knowledge, experience, capacity and access to services and resources Point 3: Climate change exacerbates vulnerabilities, across different timescales, levels and livelihoods Point 4: indirectly introduces adaptive capacity and the CBA flower

Where from here? Developing a user based climate information service

Actor network map for climate information services ALP, Kenya example Messages: multiple actors with complex relationships National met services can be a bottleneck between global climate science and users With users at the centre, the role of met services as one service provider among many for realising climate resilience becomes clearer Developing a service that puts user needs at the heart of the service. How to know what information will be useful? Critical for users not only as recipients of information but the decision makers. Means moving from just producing and disseminating climate information (ref to WB value chain) to providing a service (CIS), which requires: Consideration of the diversity of users at national to local level and their dynamic decision making contexts (influenced by vulnerabilities, capacities, socio-economics etc.). CIS providers to have a good understanding of actors’ social and institutional linkages and governance processes – and relate to these so as to generate demand for climate information and ensure it is meaningful, useful and usable to the range of users. Linkages, collaboration and sustained engagement between actors - producers, intermediaries and users November 9, 2018

User based CIS value chain - actors

User based CIS value chain – multiplier functions November 9, 2018

The multiplier function Actors working in: policy; projects or programmes on adaptation, DRR, development, resilience, agriculture FSN, others; Government sectoral departments; Met services; NGOs at any level Puts changing user information needs & knowledge at the center Facilitates linkages across the chain to create and add value at each stage Ensures learning is integrated across the value chain Supports two-way communication/ feedback between users, producers and intermediaries, building trust and confidence Motivates enabling institutional frameworks and resource flows for sustained multi-stakeholder engagement in CIS Recognition of this role is critical to effective climate information services for climate resilient/smart agric. & all sectors Facilitates linkages/ relationships across actors and functions to create and add value at each stage. Continued convening, engagement, Dialogue, monitoring systems e.g. CARE (NGO) involvement in PSP, linking adaptation and resilience to climate change with livelihoods, development and risk management Puts changing user information needs & knowledge at the center – Collective interpretation with users, support use of CI with other information (e.g. markets, NRM) and sector processes and opportunities (integration) Ensures learning is integrated across the value chain – help actors reflect and act on what it takes to develop decision relevant and context specific climate data and information for different users . Capacity building of different actors (e.g. PSP process principles as will be in the findings) Support two-way communication/ feedback between users, producers and intermediaries – facilitating dialogue, building trust, tracking climate informed decisions and impact Motivates enabling institutional frameworks and resource flows for sustained multi-stakeholder engagement in CIS. Advocating for resource flows

Thank you alp@careclimatechange.org http://careclimatechange.org/our-work/alp Coming soon “Climate information for agricultural decision-making and planning in rural communities: A Guide to Participatory Scenario Planning” ALP is supported by