Christoff Krogscheepers INTELLIGENT, SMART AND AUTONOMOUS TRANSPORT NOW AND THE FUTURE IN SOUTH AFRICA: INTELLIGENT PUBLIC TRANSPORT SYSTEMS Christoff Krogscheepers Innovative Transport Solutions (Pty) Ltd

Content Lexicon Energy Autonomous / Driverless Cars Mode Ownership Data Local Context

Staring into the Future of Public Transport

Staring into the Future of Public Transport

New Lexicon Shared Mobility Vehicle Sharing E-hailing Ride Sourcing MaaS = Mobility as a Service

Basic Elements Energy, Propulsion: Fossil to Electric to ? Control: Manual to Autonomous!! Mode: Mass vs Personal vs Sharing Ownership: Own - Rent – Share Data: Smarter Transport

Basic Elements Energy, Propulsion: Fossil to Electric to ? Control: Manual to Autonomous!! Mode: Mass vs Personal vs Sharing Ownership: Own - Rent – Share Data: Smarter Transport

Fossil Fuels vs Alternatives

Basic Elements Energy, Propulsion: Fossil to Electric to ? Control: Manual to Autonomous!! Mode: Mass vs Personal vs Sharing Ownership: Own - Rent – Share Data: Smarter Transport

Future of Autonomous Vehicle

Automated Vehicle Technologies and Their Progress along the Hype Curve/Cycle (Gartner, 2016)

Remember: Autonomous Trains – Old News There is a narrative that autonomous vehicles/driverless cars will solve the worlds problems and that the current PT services are old school and needs replacement. Automated PT is old news. There are no current working models of driverless cars, all are in test phases. Automated Train Systems (GoA 4) : Americas: 22 Asia: 30 Europe: 20 Automated Systems (GoA 2 & 3): > 100 worldwide In Europe Automated Trains moved more than 1 billion pax in 2015.

Basic Elements Energy, Propulsion: Fossil to Electric to ? Control: Manual to Autonomous!! Discussion is really about: Mode: Mass vs Personal vs Sharing Ownership: Own - Rent – Share Data: Smarter Transport

Basic Elements Energy, Propulsion: Fossil to Electric to ? Control: Manual to Autonomous!! Discussion is really about: Mode: Mass vs Personal vs Sharing Ownership: Own - Rent – Share Data: Smarter Transport

Which is the most efficient?

What does this picture not consider?

What does this picture not consider? Origins and Destinations Limited O’s Unlimited O’s Limited D’s Unlimited D’s

What does this picture not consider? 0 – D’s & Time Constraints! Limited O’s Limited Time Unlimited O’s Choose Time Limited D’s Limited Time Unlimited D’s Choose Time

What does this picture not consider What does this picture not consider? 0 – D’s & Time Constraints & Potential Limited O’s Limited Time Unlimited O’s Choose Time Unlimited O’s Choose Time Limited D’s Limited Time Unlimited D’s Choose Time Unlimited D’s Choose Time

What does this picture not consider What does this picture not consider? 0 – D’s & Time Constraints & Potential Limited O’s Limited Time Unlimited O’s Choose Time Unlimited O’s Choose Time Data Technology & Sharing Limited D’s Limited Time Unlimited D’s Choose Time Unlimited D’s Choose Time

What does this picture not consider What does this picture not consider? 0 – D’s & Time Constraint, potential & Space Limited O’s Limited Time Unlimited O’s Choose Time Unlimited O’s Choose Time Unlimited O’s Choose Time Limited D’s Limited Time Unlimited D’s Choose Time Unlimited D’s Choose Time Unlimited D’s Choose Time

Data and Technology allows Sharing Current explosion in the market is around: Data/Technology that allows coordination of origins, destination and travel times. Payment systems that are easy and safe Data that improves service provision Applications: Single Trips – Uber, Lyft….etc Multi/shared trips – FLX, Via, Door2Door, GoOpti GrabaTaxi…etc Price = f(Time Flexibilty and Sharing)

Mobility as a Service - MaaS The way customers obtain information about, pay for, and plan their travel. MaaS operators will be public or private entities, and will directly interact and broker services with all regional transportation service providers. Customers will be able to purchase monthly packages (from the MaaS provider) that are tailored to their transportation needs, or will be able to pay-as-you-go. Further, a customer’s MaaS subscription will be usable anywhere, similar to mobile phone roaming.

Are we keen to share? Can it go below 1?

Ownership 100% Rail Air Ride Sharing MaaS Private Ownerships 50% Bus 1800 1900 2000

Latest Mind-set Is there really practical alternatives to old fashioned PT? The current narrative is that public transport is old and not working and that new modes can cost-effectively provide better and cheaper alternatives. There is also occasionally implication that new modes are held back by old-style thinking about public transport. Why: Driven by the Private Sector and Marketing Initiatives?

Basic Elements Energy, Propulsion: Fossil to Electric to ? Control: Manual to Autonomous!! Discussion is really about: Mode: Mass vs Personal vs Sharing Ownership: Own - Rent – Share Data: Smarter Transport

Data Driven Transit timetables Real-time transportation information Transit performance metrics, historical and real-time Transit reliability Transit customer satisfaction Transit route characteristics Transit stop/station characteristics, both static and dynamic Multimodal journey planning results Social media/network mapping regarding transportation Transport-sharing usage, both real- time and historical Transportation payments Travel behaviour data, both quantitative and qualitative Parking data Package delivery data, both real-time and historical

Where are we in RSA? Basic Elements Energy, Propulsion: Fossil to Electric to ? Control: Manual to Autonomous!! Discussion is really about: Mode: Mass vs Personal vs Sharing Ownership: Own - Rent – Share Data: Smarter Transport Where are we in RSA?

Modal Split

Our Reality

Important Issues

Complaints – Taxis Users Walking Times to Ranks 77% walk 1 – 15 minutes to taxi 18% walk 15 – 20 minutes to taxi Dissatisfaction: Facilities at ranks: 54.9% Taxi Fares: 51% Safety 45% Travel Time: 21% Frequency of Taxis: 30%

“Available, on-time, clean, affordable and safe basic modes of PT” Future Better modelling and Planning of PT - services, demographic trends and travel patterns. PT will improve mobility - smarter, more & personalized. However, limited to small percentage unless we seriously address and focus on the Minibus Taxi Service Providers. However, we need to sort out the basics and until we do the majority of PT users will not benefit and will not have: “Available, on-time, clean, affordable and safe basic modes of PT” Still remains to be seen what the market is going to do with autonomous vehicles and shared mobility.