Housing Production: Recent Developments and Outlook Joint Business Management Committees June 15, 2017 Michael Neal Senior Economist

Macroeconomy: United States GDP growth about flat since the recession as RFI share grows

Single-Family Starts: United States Growing trend, but below what is considered normal

Single-Family Starts Many of the recovered states didn’t fall as far during the recession

Multifamily Starts: United States Headline recovery has been faster

Multifamily Starts Strong recovery across most states

Residential Remodeling Off of lows

Single-Family Starts and Payroll Employment Visible relationship between production and employment recoveries

A “Beveridge Curve” for Housing Number of renters per available home is elevated

Composition of Refinancings Freddie Mac share of cashout refinancings reaches highest level since recession

Single-Family Starts: United States Growing trend 2000-2003 1,343,000  “Normal” 2015 713,000 10% 2016 784,000 2017 855,000 9% 2018 961,000 12% 2019 1,076,000 Trough to Current: Mar 09 = 353,000 Apr 17 = 789,000 +124%

Multifamily Housing Starts: United States Leveling off 1995-2003 331,000  “Normal” 2015 395,000 12% 2016 392,000 -1% 2017 379,000 -4% 2018 365,000 2019 363,000

Single-Family Starts Long road back to normal

Multifamily Starts Nearly 60% have returned to 100% of 1995-2005 average level, but some states lag

Residential Remodeling Growth ahead

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