Economic and Market Outlook Read from slide Russell T Price, CFA® Senior Economist Ameriprise Financial February 1, 2018
Two important ways of looking at the economy Activity based indicators: (i.e. what’s happening now) What they are: retail sales, monthly job growth, manufacturing activity, the latest reading on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), etc. What they tell us: the current pulse of economic activity Fundamental balances: (i.e. where we stand) What they are: consumer indebtedness, corporate balance sheets, pent-up demand, business inventories, labor force conditions, etc. What they tell us: the underlying support (or lack-there-of) for the economy Read from slide
U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Key to the outlook: Good fundamentals Headwinds /Risks: Higher interest rates Government policy International risks /prospects Source: Commerce Dept., Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. For internal use only. Not intended for inspection by, or distribution or quotation to the general public.
The Consumer…spending reliant on job growth Consumer spending is ultimately dependent on income growth... Income growth is ultimately dependent on job growth. Read from slide Source: U.S. Labor Dept., Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc.
Employment prospects remain encouraging Layoffs are low. Job openings are high. Aggregate demand is improving. Read from slide Source: FactSet, Labor Department
Employment prospects look encouraging Layoffs are low. Job openings are high. Aggregate demand is improving. Read from slide Source: FactSet, Labor Department Data is seasonally adjusted (sa)
Consumers debt levels are relatively low Financial Obligations Ratio: Required mortgage, rent, auto lease, consumer debt, home ins., and property tax payments…as a % of Disposable Income. Source: Federal Reserve Read from slide Source: FactSet
Consumers are managing their debts well Late payments are close to historical lows. Source: Federal Reserve Read from slide Source: FactSet
Consumers are managing their debts well Late payments are close to historical lows. Financial Obligations data provided by the Federal Reserve. Consumer Confidence data provided by The Conference Board. Read from slide Source: FactSet
Corporate Balance Sheets Possibly in their best condition in 60 years. Read from slide Source: U.S. Federal Reserve, Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. For internal use only. Not intended for inspection by, or distribution or quotation to the general public.
Global growth projections: slow, but improving Key regions such as Europe, China and Japan have shown improved momentum in last few quarters. Source: International Monetary Fund, October 2017 For internal use only. Not intended for inspection by, or distribution or quotation to the general public.
Investment Implications Read from slide
Market Valuations: S&P 500 Trailing P/E Read from slide Source: FactSet as of January 16, 2018
Earnings growth likely a key to stock price expansion Read from slide Source: Consensus estimates from FactSet as of January 16, 2018
Corporate earnings at high levels Total U.S. corporate profits have recovered strongly. Read from slide Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via FactSet
Demographics imply slower growth. Is 2.5% the new 4%? Slower population growth simply implies slower economic growth. Should also keep inflation and interest rates in check. Read from slide Source: U.S. Census Dept., Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. For internal use only. Not intended for inspection by, or distribution or quotation to the general public.
Wrapping it all up…. U.S. economic fundamentals appear in good position to support growth rather than hinder it. The pace of expansion should remain constrained by demographics, the need for U.S. government austerity and slowly rising interest rates. The global economy’s “corrective phase” seems to be nearing an end. (Although this does not mean something can not still go wrong!) China’s economic growth should continue to moderate as it looks to reduce its reliance on exports and infrastructure, while slowly boosting domestic consumption. European problems (too much government debt) over the last few years are a lesson for the U.S. Read from slide
Key Risks: still many! Trade policy (NAFTA and China, mostly) China – too much debt, particularly at corporate level Federal Reserve policy – and leadership transition Wildcards: Russia, N. Korea, Venezuela, Iran, China, etc. Dysfunction in Washington Euro Zone debt, bank sector problems, structural issues Action needs to be taken to address future U.S. deficits Commodity price volatility /impact on emerging markets Fighting in the Middle East / North Africa Momentum remains important. Around the world monetary and fiscal policy measures are largely exhausted. i.e. little room for interest rates to go lower and further government deficit spending not a true viable option. Read from slide
Questions? Potential policy changes: China / Emerging Markets? Gold? The U.S. dollar? Unemployment? Commodity prices? Oil /gasoline prices? Terrorism? Municipals? State and Local debt? Potential policy changes: Corporate taxes Personal taxes Trade Infrastructure Spending Inflation / Interest Rates? Affordable Care Act? Housing? U.S. Federal Government debt? The Fed? Read from slide
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Disclosures… (continued) Investment products are not federally or FDIC-insured, are not deposits or obligations of, or guaranteed by any financial institution, and involve investment risks including possible loss of principal and fluctuation in value. Ameriprise Financial and its affiliates do not offer tax or legal advice. Consumers should consult with their tax advisor or attorney regarding their specific situation. © 2018 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. Read from slide