SUDAN SESAME SCENARIO Season 2017/2018 Prepared & Presented by: Wagdi M. MAHGOUB INDIAN OILSEEDS AND PRODUCE EXPORT PROMOTION COUNCIL (IOPEPC) ANNUAL TRADE MEET Mahabaleshwar, Maharashtra, 10-12th NOVEMBER 2017

THE SUDAN Sudan enjoys vast lands extending in an area of 728,000 square mile (current). 70 million hectares (equivalent to one-third of the total area) is suitable for agriculture. Between 15 and 17 million hectares of this area is cultivated through rain-fed agriculture, and between 1.5 to 1.7 million hectares is cultivated through irrigated agriculture. Sudan, also, enjoys an abundance of water, be it from the River Nile and its tributaries, or rainwater & or groundwater divided as follows: River Nile: 20.5 Billion cubic meters; River Nile’s tributaries: 5 billion cubic meters; Rainwater: 200-400 Billion cubic meters; Groundwater: 5 Billion cubic meters.

GADARIF STATE 2017 RAINFALL AREA 2016 2017 DIFFERENCE (%) NORTHERN REGION 375.2 144.95 158.8% CENTRAL REGION 473.7 333.37 42.1% SOUTHERN REGION 420.2 208.05 101% WESTERN REGION 404.3 422.70 4.5% EASTERN REGION 437.5 329.60 32.73 AVERAGE 422.2 287.73 - * SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DECREASE IN GADARIF MAIN CULTIVATION AREAS. * EXCELLENT RAINY SEASON IN BLUE NILE STATE. ( SOURCE: MOA GADARIF STATE -SUDAN)

GADARIF STATE 2017 RAINFALL

AREAS OF SESAME CULTIVATION [1] DARFUR [2] KURDOFAN [3] GADARIF [4] WHITE NILE [5] SINNAR [6] BLUE NILE 3 1 2 4 5 6

SUMMARY OF CULTIVATED AREAS (2015, 2016 & 2017) STATE AVERAGE CULTIVATED AREA (HECTARE) CULTIVATED SESAME TYPE DIFFERENCE (%) 15/2016 16/2017 17/2018 GEDARIF 294,000 341,880 359.100 White 63.78% KURDUFAN 661,500 1,377,180 1,350,000 Red/White 1.96% DARFUR 79,800 404,460 170,000 37.91% BLUE NILE 121,800 126,840 252,000 98.67% SINNAR 220,500 317,100 363,657 14.68% WHITE NILE 113,400 232,260 250,000 7.63% OTHERS 63,000 7,980 8,000 - TOTAL 1,554,000 2,807,700 2,602,397 ( SOURCE: MOA -SUDAN)

SESAME CULTIVATED AREAS, HARVESTED AND PRODUCTION SEASONS 2015-2018 (Hectare) Harvested Average Productivity (KG/Hectare) Production MT 2014/2015 2,940,000 2,499,000 216 (Kg / HA ) 540 2015/2016 1,554,200 1,197,000 200 (Kg / HA ) 245 2016/2017 2,807,000 2,125,500 247 (Kg / HA ) 525 2017/2018 2,602,397 2,140,000 200(Kg / HA ) 455* * Estimated Data ( SOURCE: MOA -SUDAN)

EXPECTED PRODUCTION SEASON 2017 / 2018 STATE PRODUCTION/MT 2017/2018 (ESTIMATE) PRODUCTION/MT 2016/2017 (ACTUAL) Difference (%) GEDARIF 75,000 93,000 44% KURDUFAN 170,000 157,000 8.3% DARFUR 40,000 97,000 58.7% BLUE NILE 52,000 34,000 52.9% SINNAR 76,000 89,000 14.6% WHITE NILE 54,000 35% OTHERS 2,000 1,000 - TOTAL 455,000 525,000 21.8%

YEAR PRICE USD JAN-DEC. 2014 2100 JAN-DEC. 2015 1250 JAN-DEC. 2016 SUDANESE SESAME HISTORICAL AVERAGE PRICES NATURAL (FOB PORT SUDAN - USD) YEAR PRICE USD JAN-DEC. 2014 2100 JAN-DEC. 2015 1250 JAN-DEC. 2016 JAN-NOV. 2017 1150 ( SOURCE: SUDAN TRADE POINT – SESAME REPORT )

SUDANESE SESAME AVERAGE PRICES JAN-DEC 2016/ JAN-NOV 2017 ( SOURCE: SUDAN TRADE POINT – SESAME REPORT )

SUDANESE SESAME AVERAGE PRICES JAN-NOV 2017 WHITISH (FOB PORT SUDAN - USD) PERIOD PRICE USD JAN-FEB 1050 MARCH-APRIL 1100 MAY-JUNE 1150 JULY-AUG 1200 SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER ( SOURCE: SUDAN TRADE POINT – SESAME REPORT )

SUDANESE SESAME AVERAGE PRICES JAN-NOV 2017 ( SOURCE: SUDAN TRADE POINT – SESAME REPORT )

EXCHANGE RATE The financial authorities in each country pay extra attention to exchange rate as the strength and stability of the national economy is closely linked to its rate against other foreign currencies. Exchange rate importance also stems from being the main source of country's reserve; as well as being the instrument by which the country pays its imports and fulfills its obligations towards the outer world. The exchange rate policies have a direct impact in reducing the rate of inflation and cost of economical and structural reform of different sectors.

COMPARISON OF EXCHANGE RATES 2014- 2017 PARALLEL MARKET (AVERAGE ) DIFFERENCE (%) PARALLEL MARKET (AVERAGE ) OFFICIAL RATE SDG/USD YEAR 54% 7.7 5.0 2014 56% 9.2 5.9 2015 96% 13.5 6.9 2016 (First half) 83% 16.5 9.0 2016 (Second half) 15% 18 15.6 2017 (First half) 35% 21 2017 (Second half)

THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE ON PRICING Exchange rate plays essential role in determining exports’ cost. As an example, below table shows how it costing affected by disparity of exchange rate:- 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.5 21.0 (Current) Exchange Rate SDG/1USD 16.7% 13.5% 10.6% 7.7% 2.5% 0% Price increase (%)

TOTAL SESAME EXPORTS (2014, 2015, 2016 & 2017) PERIOD 2 0 1 4 (QTY. MT) 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 JAN - MAR 71,659 114,825 75,799 148,582 APR - JUN 66,032 72,641 121,250 136,672 JUL – AUG 46,421 54,687 84,694 21,851 SEPT – OCT 115,595 65,210 185,885 93,912 TOTAL 299,707 307,363 467,628 401,017 * Actual data ( SOURCE: CENTRAL BANK OF SUDAN – SUDAN COSTUMS )

SESAME EXPORTS IN METRIC TONS 2014, 2015, 2016 & 2017 * * Up to October 2017

SESAME SEEDS EXPORTS, ANNUAL GROWTH AND SHARE IN NON OIL EXPORT DURING THE PERIOD 2014-2017 YEAR VALUE ($000) QUANTITY (MT) NON OIL EXPORTS VALUE ANNUAL GROWTH (%) ANNUAL GROWTH (%) SHARE IN NON OIL EXPORTS (%) 2014 466,338 299,707 3,096,100 1.27 -26.6 8.7 2015 453,478 307,363 2,541,930 -2.75 2.49 17.8 2016 379,347 467,628 2,757,926 -16.35 52.14 13.75 2017 302,368 401,017* 1,943,187 - 15.56 * TOTAL SESAME EXPORTS JAN- OCTOBER 2017 (Actual) ( SOURCE: CENTRAL BANK OF SUDAN – SUDAN COSTUMS )

Sesame Import by Major Countries – Jan-July 2017 Importing Country’s Growth Rate Compared to Previous Seasons’ Same period COUNTRY EXPORT SIZE GROWTH VALUE $ (000) (%) OF TOTAL EXPORT VALUE PREVIOUS SEASON (%) CHINA 68,445 31.82 24.76 7.06 EGYPT 27,989 13.01 26.97 13.96 SAUDI ARABIA 15,572 7.24 14.06 6.82 LEBANON 8,209 3.82 9.09 5.27 JORDAN 11,082 5.15 7.84 2.69 INDIA 10,547 4.90 1.78 3.12 TURKEY 18,133 8.43 3.57 4.86 GREECE 6,569 3.05 2.09 0.96 TUNISIA 4,968 2.31 4.96 2.65 UAE 5,606 2.60 0.95 1.65 SYRIA 8,355 3.88 3.18 0.70 ( SOURCE: CENTRAL BANK OF SUDAN – SUDAN COSTUMS )

IMPORTERS OF SUDANESE SESAME DURING 2017 ( SOURCE: CENTRAL BANK OF SUDAN – SUDAN CUSTOMS )

2016/ 2017 SEASON REVIEW Actual harvested Crop (all types): 525,000MT Total Exports: Jan – October 17 401,000MT (*1) Local consumption & others: 124,000MT (*2) Old Crop Stock(s): 0,000MT (*1) Actual data (*2) Including mixed/red sesame

New Crop Arrival: GADARIF: 20,000MT BLUE NILE & SINNAR: 10,000MT (As of 07/11/2017 approx.) GADARIF: 20,000MT BLUE NILE & SINNAR: 10,000MT WHITE NILE: 10,000MT WESTERN STATES: 5,000MT ================================================ Total new crop so far: 45,000MT

Thank You, Wagdi M. MAHGOUB