Crop Market News Kim Anderson 11/10/2018

U.S. Dollar Index: Monthly

Agricultural Economics Oklahoma State University 10-Nov-18 Wheat Kim Anderson Agricultural Economics Oklahoma State University kim.anderson@okstate.edu 405.744.9817

OK Average Annual Wheat Price Ethanol, Funds USSR, China WW I ‘14 WW II ‘42 ‘28

World Wheat Production

World wheat production: Region, Harvest Months, and 5-year Avg. Prod (Million Bushels) Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Major Exporters   Argentina 450 Australia  920  Canada (Spring) 1,080  EU-27 5,390  US 2,090  Major Importers Brazil 200 China  3,400 1,100  Middle East 700  N W Africa Pakistan 930 Select other Former SU 4,300  India 3,320

http://www.gramene.org/species/triticum/wheat_maps_and_stats.html http://www.gramene.org/species/triticum/wheat_maps_and_stats.html

World Wheat Exports

Source: AgResource Company

Daily Cash Wheat Prices: Goltry

Daily Cash Wheat Basis: Goltry

KC Nearby Wheat Contract: Monthly

Daily Cash Wheat Prices: Goltry World U.S. 25.1 2.50 25.2 2.22 24.0 2.21 25.6 2.00 24.2 2.25 26.3 2.14 26.7 2.03 27.0 2.05 27.1 2.26

World Wheat Situation 2009 25.2 23.9 7.4 $4.87 2010 24.0 24.1 7.3 10-Nov-18 World Wheat Situation Production Consumption Ending Stocks Year U. S. Price (Billion Bushels) 2009 25.2 23.9 7.4 $4.87 2010 24.0 24.1 7.3 $5.70 2011 25.6 7.2 $7.24 2012 24.2 25.0 6.5 $7.77 2013 26.3 25.9 7.1 $6.87 2014 26.7 8.0 $5.99 2015 27.0 26.0 9.0 $4.89 2016 27.1 26.8 9.3 $4.00 7-YR Avg. 7.5 $6.19

No. 1 Hard Winter Basis Kansas City Sept., cents per bu Protein July 1 Premium 11.0% -16 - -6 12.6% 75 85 11.2% -5 5 12.8% 11.4% 26 36 13.0% 86 96 11.6% 42 52 13.2% 11.8% 13.4% 12.0% 13.6% 12.2% 13.8% 91 101 12.4% 14.0% 111 Source: Milling and Baking News

Wheat Summary World awash in wheat Marketing Assistance Loan (MAL) http://www.fsa.usda.gov/programs-and-services/price-support/commodity-loans/index Non-Recourse Marketing Assistance Loan County PCP Data Corn providing floor price Doesn’t look good until 2017 but still hope.

Corn Market News 11/10/2018

World Corn Production: Percentage by Country 1982 47% Exports 70% - 39%

World Corn Imports: Percentage by Country

CBT Corn: Monthly

CBT Dec Corn: Daily Basis -$0.50 $0.05

10-Nov-18 U.S. Corn Situation Production Consumption Ending Stocks U. S. Price Year (Billion Bushels) 2009 13.1 1.71 $3.55 2010 12.4 1.13 $5.18 2011 12.5 0.99 $6.22 2012 10.8 11.1 0.82 $6.89 2013 13.8 13.5 1.23 $4.46 2014 14.2 13.7 1.73 $3.70 2015 13.6 1.70 $3.65 2016 14.5 2.08 $3.40 7-YR Avg. 12.90 12.96 1.33 $4.81

10-Nov-18 World Corn Situation Production Consumption Ending Stocks Year (Billion Bushels) 2009 32.3 32.4 5.7 2010 32.8 33.5 5.1 2011 34.9 34.8 5.2 2012 34.2 34.0 5.4 2013 39.0 37.4 6.8 2014 39.9 38.6 8.2 2015 37.8 8.1 2016 39.8 39.7 7-YR Avg. 35.84 35.50 6.36

Corn Summary Record U.S. production Near record world production Higher U.S. corn ending stocks Stable world corn ending stocks Slightly lower corn stocks-to-use ratio Corn prices stable to higher

Soy Bean Market News 11/10/2018

World Soybean Production: Percentage by Country 2008-2013 1982 65%

World Soybean Exports: Percentage by Country 2008-2013 1982 86%

World Soybean Imports: Percentage by Country 2008-2013

CBT Soybean: Monthly

CBT Nov Soybean: Daily Basis -$0.75

U.S. Soybean Situation 2009 3.4 0.15 $9.59 2010 3.3 0.22 $11.30 2011 10-Nov-18 U.S. Soybean Situation Production Consumption Ending Stocks U. S. Price Year (Billion Bushels) 2009 3.4 0.15 $9.59 2010 3.3 0.22 $11.30 2011 3.1 3.2 0.17 $12.50 2012 3.0 0.14 $14.40 2013 3.5 0.09 $13.00 2014 3.9 0.19 $10.10 2015 3.8 0.35 $9.05 2016 4.0 0.29 $9.50 7-YR Avg. $11.42

World Soybean Situation 10-Nov-18 World Soybean Situation Production Consumption Ending Stocks Year (Billion Bushels) 2009 9.59 8.75 2.23 2010 9.70 9.25 2.59 2011 8.80 9.47 2.00 2012 9.88 9.60 2.03 2013 10.38 10.11 2.28 2014 11.75 11.05 2.88 2015 11.48 11.66 2.65 2016 11.98 12.08 2.47 7-YR Avg. 10.23 9.98 2.38

Soybean Summary Record world production Record world use Lower U.S. and World ending stocks Below average world stocks-to-use ratio Prices stable to higher

Crop Market News 11/10/2018

Canadian $/U.S. $: Daily Nearest 11/10/2018

Canola: Weekly Nearest ‘13 $11.60 ‘11 $12.00 ‘12 $12.00 ‘15 $6.40 ‘14 $9.60 ‘16 $5.60 11/10/2018

Providing Inspiration for Agricultural Success www.agecon.okstate.edu/anderson

Kim’s marketing philosophy Market land, labor, capital, and management. Sell the commodity. Concentrate on keeping costs low. Price will take care of itself. 11/10/2018