Yaniv Mordecai & Dov Dori Streamlining Product Lifecycle Risk Management through an OPM-Based Risk Modeling Framework Yaniv Mordecai & Dov Dori Interface Driven Risk Modeling March 2012

Lifecycle Risk Management What it’s all about… Product Lifecycle Project Operation Lifecycle Risk Management Project Risk Management Operational Risk Management Interface Driven Risk Modeling March 2012

Project Risk Management vs. Operational Risk Management Similar theoretical foundations. Separate methodologies and practices. No consolidated approach. No knowledge transfer on transferred risks. Phase transition is hardly addressed. Interface Driven Risk Modeling March 2012

Why!? (excuses part I) Project stakeholders ≠ operational stakeholders Interface Driven Risk Modeling March 2012

Why!? (excuses part II) Project objectives ≠ operational objectives Interface Driven Risk Modeling March 2012

Why!? (excuses part III) Project risks ≠ operational risks Interface Driven Risk Modeling March 2012

Nevertheless… Project/operational objectives eventually pertain to the same product/ organization/ environment. Constant evolution and emergence of development risks affecting the operational environment, and vice versa. Neither PRM nor ORM provides the means to handle the transition or mutual effect of risks between lifecycle phases. Interface Driven Risk Modeling March 2012

Islands of Methodology Applications: Nuclear reactors (Cooke 1991) Space Missions (Cornford et al., 2003; Tralli, 2003; Haimes, 2009) Oil drilling platforms (Yang et al., 2009) Agile Software Development (Boehm, 2002) Characteristics: Unique environment. Mega-programs, resource abundant. Development and operation deeply intertwined. Stakeholder uniformity/ identity. Interface Driven Risk Modeling March 2012

Uncharted Waters Construction, Infrastructure, Engineering, Machinery, A&D, Software, Hardware, Healthcare, Biomed, … you name it! Insufficient literature or methodology. No domain specific applications. No holistic approach. No special care for phase transition issues. Interface Driven Risk Modeling March 2012

The Paradigm Shift Lifecycle Risk Management defined. The need to consolidate and integrate PRM and ORM. The need to address phase-transition issues, ignored or poorly addressed by both PRM and ORM. Interface Driven Risk Modeling March 2012

Our Framework Lifecycle based – consideration of the entire lifecycle of the product – from conception to disposal. Focus on lifecycle aspects – cycles, phase transition, end-to-end processes, etc. Risk modeling on top of the system model – allows to communicate risk and risk handling between phases and stakeholders. Interface Driven Risk Modeling March 2012

Object-Process Methodology (OPM) Our Underlying Framework A minimum description length language and a comprehensive systems engineering paradigm for Modeling, Communicating, Documenting , Engineering and Lifecycle support of complex, multi-disciplinary systems. Based on simultaneous representation of structure (via stateful objects) and behavior (via processes). Listed as one of the leading methodologies for MBSE (Model-base Systems Engineering). OPM is in the process of becoming ISO standard and the basis for Model-Based ISO Standards Authoring. 11/10/2018

The basic OPM things: Objects and Processes

OPM Entities – the bricks: Things and States Object: A thing that exists or might exist physically or informatically. Objects are stateful: Objects can have states At each point in time a stateful object is at one of its states - static, or in transition between two states – undergoing change Process: A thing that transforms an object. Transforming an object is: creating it, consuming it, or changing its state. Object State 1 State 2 Processing

Compact Ontology: A Minimum Length OPM alphabet OPM unifies the system’s structure and behavior throughout the analysis and design of the system within one frame of reference using a small alphabet: Two types of things: (1) stateful objects (2) processes Two families of links: (1) structural links: connect objects with objects (2) procedural links: connect processes with objects 11/10/2018

Why OPM? Single model with detail decomposition. Clutter and incompatibilities better avoided. Built-in mechanisms for non-linear structures - triggers, timing constraints, and exceptions. Unique approach for complexity management and reduction Bimodal representation: graphical + textual. Extensible – allows meta-modeling. OPCAT – free CASE tool, built-in simulation capability. On the way to ISO standardization. Interface Driven Risk Modeling March 2012

Our OPM Model Interface Driven Risk Modeling March 2012

Zoom in to Product Lifecycle Interface Driven Risk Modeling March 2012

Zoom in to Risk Management Interface Driven Risk Modeling March 2012

Lifecycle Risk Phenomena Risk Migration Risk Propagation Risk Transformation Interface Driven Risk Modeling March 2012

Risk Migration Direct movement of a risk effect from one phase to another. When: Risk source applies to both phases. Objectives are shared by both stakeholder groups. Examples: Interfaces to legacy systems. Cost distribution over phases. Example: cheap component with high power consumption. Interface Driven Risk Modeling March 2012

Risk Migration Pattern Interface Driven Risk Modeling March 2012

Risk Propagation Continuous effect of project progress on operations, or vice versa. When: Developing and operating organizations/environments are related/ dependant. Examples: Delayed software delivery hinders new business service launch. Aircraft maintenance delays or postpones aircraft modification. Interface Driven Risk Modeling March 2012

Risk Propagation Pattern Interface Driven Risk Modeling March 2012

Risk Transformation Conversion of a project risk effect to another operational risk effect, or vice versa. When: Product design affects operational setting. Operational constraints affect product specification. Examples: Monitoring system reduces the risk of failure of monitored component, but its own reliability may be at risk (what happens if the monitor stops working?) Interface Driven Risk Modeling March 2012

Risk Transformation Pattern Interface Driven Risk Modeling March 2012

Example – Shoulder Missile Defense System for Commercial Aircraft Interface Driven Risk Modeling March 2012

Example – Shoulder Missile Defense System for Commercial Aircraft Focus on Authorization issues Two risks: Hitting Aircraft, False Activation Zooming into Reaction Pattern: Risk Transformation Interface Driven Risk Modeling March 2012

Summary The problem: The answer: The lack of an integrated lifecycle risk management approach. The lack of treatment of the transition between phases. The answer: A structured approach to lifecycle risk management. Focus on phase transition risk management issues. Risk modeling directly on top of the system model, using OPM. Interface Driven Risk Modeling March 2012

The Enterprise Systems Modeling Laboratory A unique education and research studio concept. Implementation of powerful tools and methodologies. Participating in several projects across the world (NASA SMACKDOWN, TALOS, VISIONAIR, ISO, SEBoK) Interface Driven Risk Modeling March 2012

Simulated Animation Projects NASA Smackdown Project The SISO Simulation Smackdown is an effort to promote better awareness and understanding of both the importance and the complexity of modern modeling and simulation through hands-on mentoring and participation with modeling and simulation practitioners. TALOS autonomous robot project Develop and field test the innovative concept of a mobile, modular, scalable, autonomous and adaptive system for protecting European borders. Our contribution to both projects is VIVID OPM – A framework for model-driven simulated animation Tanas, M.; Holubowicz, W.; Adamczyk, A.; Taberski, G.; "The TALOS project. EU wide robotic border guard system," Methods and Models in Automation and Robotics (MMAR), 2011 16th International Conference on , vol., no., pp.336-340, 22-25 Aug. 2011 URL: http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=6031369&isnumber=6031302

International Standards and Knowledge Generation Projects ISO Standardization of OPM We advocate a model-based systems engineering approach for creating “industry-strength” technical documents Technical document authoring is the function of the system – the organization – that delivers the technical document. Systems Engineering Body of Knowledge (SEBoK) The SEBoK is a guide to the body of knowledge, providing references to detailed sources for additional information. The SEBoK is primarily domain independent, with implementation examples providing the domain-specific context. The SEBoK is focused on engineered systems: products, services, systems of systems (SoS), and enterprises

Yaniv Mordecai 054-9768764 ymordecai@gmail.com Thanks! Yaniv Mordecai 054-9768764 ymordecai@gmail.com Interface Driven Risk Modeling March 2012