Visual Analytics Processes

Two Examples on 2016 Presidential Election

Or This http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/ us/elections/how-trump-pushed-the-election-map- to-the-right.html

Are They Good Enough to Analyze What Was Going On?

Suppose You Are An Analyst in a Think Tank Two questions are assigned to you? Why Could Trump Win the Election? What Could Be the Target of the Next Terrorist Attack?

Visual Analytics Not just about piling up graphs. Should support analysis What is analysis? General approaches for analysis: top-down and bottom- up

Top-Down Approach Deductive Have a hypothesis based on certain guidance, theory, experience, etc. Know what types of information to search Find and analyze information Confirm the hypothesis Or refine the hypothesis and start the process again

Example 1 Analysis of why Trump won the election Many possible reasons One hypothesis: strong support from the rust belt Research, news articles, interviews Is this true? How to analyze this issue?

We can start from here http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/ us/elections/how-trump-pushed-the-election-map- to-the-right.html

Example 2 What could the next terrorist attack happen? Hypothesis?

Botto-up Approach Inductive Have no hypothesis at all Have sufficient data Search through data, find patterns, and build a hypothesis

Example 1 Analysis of the Dutch/French election What would you do? All kinds of data voting data, campaign speeches, news articles, social media contents, etc.

Example 2 What could happen to Russia in next terrorist attack?

Benefits and Pitfalls of Two Approaches Top-down Benefits Efficient: search can be more purposeful Reliable: solid theories (usually) Pitfalls General theories may not be applicable to specific cases Misled analysis Bottom-up May lead to new understandings Misled by data (e.g., untruthful data) Hard to be generalized: may not be theory at all.

Examples on Election Prediction Top-down https://pollyvote.com/en/components/index- models/keys-to-the-white-house/ Bottom http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/10/technology/the- data-said-clinton-would-win-why-you-shouldnt-have- believed-it.html

Combination of Both Top-down and bottom-up often are combined together. Analysts need priori knowledge in analysis. Know where to look at. Data is often surprising and incomplete. Need to understand data to build up new models/theories/frameworks.

Implications for Visual Analytics Design Understanding analytical processes Sensemaking Supporting analytical activities Visualizing data and the organization of data Supporting processes

Sensemaking

What is Sensemaking?

What is sensemaking? Sensemaking: a new or unfamiliar situation where people need to understand what is going on Possessed knowledge is insufficient Knowledge gap, dilemma, or an obstacle. Example Encountering an error in your programming assignment Getting lost in a foreign city

What is sensemaking? Sensemaking: a new or unfamiliar situation where people need to understand what is going on Possessed knowledge is insufficient Knowledge gap, dilemma, or an obstacle. Example Encountering an error in your programming assignment Getting lost in a foreign city Outcomes of sensemaking New knowledge New problem solving techniques

Essence of Sensemaking A process that involves learning, doing, and understanding. User involvement is required. A process in which user activities are often situated. Different knowledge context, task context, information context, etc. A process that consists of information gathering, interpretation, and synthesis. Success or failure of sensemaking is relative. All depend on what contexts sensemaking is conducted and achieved. It is hard to automate sensemaking processes.

Supporting Sensemaking

Using Visualization to Support Sensemaking Processes Help people collect information Help people understand and analyze information Help people organize information Help people understand their activities

Two Projects CiteSense Helping people search, collect, evaluation, and organize research papers Demo

Two Projects CiteSense SocialNetSense Helping people search, collect, evaluation, and organize research papers Demo SocialNetSense Helping people understand the process of social network processes

In Summary Understanding visual analytic processes is important to good design We still don’t have reliable theories yet. Current VA systems are more ad hoc. Specific tasks Specific data sets Specific users

Project Report Implementation A section to summarize your tasks and designs presented early on. A section to describe what tools you are going to use for data processing, and visualization design.

Individual Homework Revisit the puzzle and think about what can be done more to support the analysis of the problem What specific tasks do you need? Information side, grid side, linking them together How well does the grid tool support these tasks? You can draw your design on paper, with computer drawing tools, or whatever you feel comfortable.