Eugene S. Takle Iowa State University

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Presentation transcript:

Eugene S. Takle Iowa State University gstakle@iastate.edu Midwest Weather Working Group Indianapolis, IN 7 October 2009

Des Moines Airport Data 1983: 31 1988: 26 2009 so far: 1

Des Moines Airport Data 1983: 13 1988: 10 2009 so far: 0

Des Moines Airport Data 1983: 13 1988: 10 2009 so far: 0

6 days ≥ 100oF in the last 20 years Des Moines Airport Data 1983: 13 1988: 10 6 days ≥ 100oF in the last 20 years 2009 so far: 0

Ames Data

Des Moines Airport Data

Des Moines Airport Data

State-Wide Average Data

State-Wide Average Data

Cedar Rapids Data

“One of the clearest trends in the United States observational record is an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events… Over the last century there was a 50% increase in the frequency of days with precipitation over 101.6 mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.; this trend is statistically significant “

Cedar Rapids Data

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

December-January-February Temperature Change 4.0 3.5 A1B Emission Scenario 2080-2099 minus 1980-1999 Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

June-July-August Temperature Change 2.5 A1B Emission Scenario 2080-2099 minus 1980-1999 3.0 Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

December-January-February Precipitation Change 0.1 0.0 A1B Emission Scenario 2080-2099 minus 1980-1999 Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

June-July-August Precipitation Change 0.0 -0.1 A1B Emission Scenario 2080-2099 minus 1980-1999 Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

Change in Annual Cloud Cover Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

Change in Annual Cloud Cover -1.0 -1.5 A1B Emission Scenario 2080-2099 minus 1980-1999 Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

Change in Diurnal Temperature Range Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

Change in Diurnal Temperature Range -0.3 0.0 0.3 A1B Emission Scenario 2080-2099 minus 1980-1999 Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

Change in Evaporation Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

Change in Evaporation A1B Emission Scenario 2080-2099 minus 1980-1999 0.2 0.1 A1B Emission Scenario 2080-2099 minus 1980-1999 Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

Change in Soil Moisture Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

Change in Soil Moisture -5 A1B Emission Scenario 2080-2099 minus 1980-1999 Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

*Estimated from IPCC reports

*Estimated from IPCC reports

*Estimated from IPCC and CCSP reports

Waxman-Markey Bill Midwest activities relating to a “national climate service” Question for Midwest Weather Working Group

TITLE I—CLEAN ENERGY TITLE II—ENERGY EFFICIENCY TITLE III—REDUCING GLOBAL WARMING POLLUTION TITLE IV—TRANSITIONING TO A CLEAN ENERGY ECONOMY TITLE VII—GLOBAL WARMING POLLUTION REDUCTION PROGRAM TITLE VIII—ADDITIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS STANDARDS

TITLE IV—TRANSITIONING TO A CLEAN ENERGY ECONOMY Subtitle E—Adapting to Climate Change PART 1—DOMESTIC ADAPTATION: Subpart A—National Climate Change Adaptation Program NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION SERVICES NATIONAL CLIMATE SERVICE

Corn and Climate Workshop (Ames, 2008) Midwest regional office of the National Weather Service has been exploring climate needs assessment for the Midwest (Doug Kluck) Corn and Climate Workshop (Ames, 2008) Regional Climate Services Planning Meeting for Agriculture, September 9-10, 2009 – Champaign/Urbana, IL Pilot project (Steve Hilberg, Dev Niyogi, Gene Takle) on agriculture needs assessment Calendar for weather-driven agriculture decsions

Rather, “what do you do and when do you do it?” Don’t ask “what climate information do you need and when do you need it?” Rather, “what do you do and when do you do it?” When (month) are decisions made? What is the lead time related to that decision? 2 hours (weather forecast) 2 days (weather forecast) 2 weeks (ensemble climate simulation) 2 months (ensemble climate simulation) 6 months (ensemble climate simulation) 2 years (ensemble climate simulation)

What decision tools that you currently use can be driven by hourly values of future meteorological or soil variables? When (month) are these decisions made? What lead time is needed for these weather conditions?