Optimisation of Supply Demand Balance Model under Uncertainty Damian Staszek Supervisors: Professor Dragan Savic & Professor Guangtao Fu University of Exeter ds463@exeter.ac.uk Suggest to add your email address and affiliation under your name You need to think about the title at a later stage: 1) you are not going to optimize the model, but the supply demand system and (investment) strategies; 2) the presentation mainly focuses on model development and the optimization part is not clear. This is fine at this stage but should be made clear as you make a progress in the project.

Introduction Every five years Water Only Companies (WOC) and Water and Sewage Companies (WaSC) publish their Water Resources Management Plans (WRMP) and Business Plans. Water and Waste Water Industry in England and Wales is regulated. Ofwat proposed 4 key themes for PR19: Customer service, long-term resilience, Affordable bills and Innovation Next periodic Review is in 2019. Various Supply-Demand models are employed by companies as decision support tools to choose the optimal combination of the capital investment programs and operational strategies that will be: the most cost effective, efficient, and will provide the level of service required by customers. Ofwat Key Themes for PR19 www.wisecdt.org

Uncertainty www.wisecdt.org Uncertainties affecting WSS: due to imperfect knowledge about socioeconomic drivers, due to climate variability and climate change, as a result of changing system dynamics, related to regulatory framework or legal aspects. “Uncertainty is present in all aspects of water resources management (WRM) optimisation, from problem formulation to solutions obtained” Source: Thames Water: DWRMP April 2013 www.wisecdt.org

The research questions: What are optimal or near optimal solutions for Supply Demand Balance Problem under various sources of uncertainty? What is an impact of the uncertainty and adopted risk approach on decision making? Perhaps ‘questions’ should go before the research areas. To me, these questions are the gaps you identified in the background review and you want to fill with your work www.wisecdt.org

Aim and objectives Aim: To develop a better understanding of supply demand balance problems for water resources management under uncertainty. Objectives: To develop an SDB model based on the input generated by new risk-based methods. To optimise the model under uncertainty. To investigate the impact of uncertainty on decision-making. To establish how decisions are determined by various adopted strategies, policies and risk. Perhaps ‘questions’ should go before the research areas. To me, these questions are the gaps you identified in the background review and you want to fill with your work www.wisecdt.org

Objective 1: To develop an SDB model Bristol Water Models : HYSIM Mass Balance Model MISER SDB Optimiser Perhaps ‘questions’ should go before the research areas. To me, these questions are the gaps you identified in the background review and you want to fill with your work www.wisecdt.org

www.wisecdt.org All data are per year Water volume in Ml/d Horizon: 25 years Im going to focus on demand, outage and options www.wisecdt.org

Options (Schemes) Schemes categories: Demand Distribution Production Resources Drought Schemes Data collected: Yield per year Costs per year Project timing, years to build Artist Impression of Cheddar 2 Reservoir www.wisecdt.org

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Objective 2: To optimise the model under uncertainty Various investment scenarios are considered Model runs in R environment Genetic algorithm is used to provide optimal solutions www.wisecdt.org

Integration between Mass Balance Model / MISER and SDB Optimiser is required Uncertainty needs to be captured at data-gathering and sub-modelling level www.wisecdt.org