The Public’s Mixed Views of Trade Bruce Stokes Director, Global Economic Attitudes @BruceStokes OECD April 25, 2017

Pew Research Center Established 1996 June, 2015 Pew Research Center Established 1996 Funded by the Pew Charitable Trusts, other foundations Non-profit, non-partisan fact tank in Washington Since 2002, we have surveyed in 93 countries Research topics: U.S. politics Media and the news Social trends Internet and technology Science Hispanics Global public opinion and migration www.pewresearch.org November 10, 2018 www.pewresearch.org

Chinese, Indians: upbeat about Globalization November 10, 2018 www.pewproject.org

Chinese Have Positive View of Global Economic Engagement EMBARGOED COPY - NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION OR PUBLICATION UNTIL 18:00 EDT (22:00 GMT) MONDAY, JUNE 13, 2016 Chinese Have Positive View of Global Economic Engagement Which statement comes closer to your view about China’s involvement in the global economy? Involvement in the global economy is a good thing for China because it provides our country with new markets and opportunities for growth TOTAL 60% Urban 63 Rural 55 Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey. November 10, 2018 www.pewresearch.org

It’s bad because it lowers wages, costs jobs Roughly Half of Indians Think India’s Involvement in the Global Economy Is a Good Thing Which statement comes closer to your view about India’s involvement in the global economy? It’s bad because it lowers wages, costs jobs It’s good because it provides India with new markets, opportunities for growth Neither (VOL) Don’t know Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey. November 10, 2018 www.pewresearch.org

A More Divided View in Europe November 10, 2018 www.pewproject.org

Widely Differing European Views on Economic Engagement EMBARGOED COPY - NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION OR PUBLICATION UNTIL 18:00 EDT (22:00 GMT) MONDAY, JUNE 13, 2016 Widely Differing European Views on Economic Engagement Our country’s involvement in the global economy is a good thing because it provides our country with new markets and opportunities for growth NUMBERCHECKED November 10, 2018 www.pewresearch.org

Men More Likely to Favor Global Economic Engagement Our country’s involvement in the global economy is a good thing because it provides our country with new markets and opportunities for growth Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey. November 10, 2018 www.pewresearch.org

Those Partial to Populist Parties More Negative on Global Economic Engagement Our country’s involvement in the global economy is a bad thing because it lowers wages and costs jobs Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey. November 10, 2018 www.pewresearch.org

One Reason: Many Doubt the Benefits of Trade and FDI   Trade is good Trade increases wages Trade creates jobs Trade lowers prices Foreign companies buying domestic companies is good Foreign companies building factories in our country is good % Spain 91 28 56 22 43 85 Germany 90 26 19 66 UK 88 34 50 24 39 82 Greece 79 21 44 35 31 67 Poland 78 38 51 40 75 France 73 14 32 Italy 59 7 13 23 61 November 10, 2018 www.pewresearch.org

Japanese attitudes November 10, 2018 www.pewproject.org

Majority Say Global Economic Engagement is a Good Thing, But Women and Older People Are Less Positive Involvement in the global economy is a good thing because it provides Japan with new markets and opportunities for growth Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey. November 10, 2018 www.pewresearch.org

Japanese Are the Least Enthusiastic in Asia-Pacific About Globalization’s Benefits   Trade is good Trade increases wages Trade creates jobs lowers prices Foreign companies buying domestic companies Foreign companies building factories in our country % Vietnam 95 72 78 31 59 80 Malaysia 87 47 57 9 45 Chile 85 27 52 28 53 68 Peru 81 42 55 24 70 Mexico 71 43 50 69 Japan 10 15 17 58 U.S. 20 35 75 November 10, 2018 www.pewresearch.org

Americans Views on trade are counter intuitive, partisan and changing Sept. 18, 2015 www.pewresearch.org 14

Rating each a top priority for the president and Congress Trade Has Never Been a Priority for Most Americans, Although They Are Slightly More Concerned in 2017 Rating each a top priority for the president and Congress   --Bush-- -------------------------------------------Obama------------------------------------------ --Trump-- 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 % Defending against terrorism 80 76 73 69 71 75 Strengthening nation’s economy 68 85 83 87 86 Reducing health care costs 59 57 61 60 63 64 66 Protecting the environment 41 44 40 43 52 49 51 47 55 Reducing the budget deficit 53 72 56 Dealing with immigration* 46 39 Dealing with global trade issues 34 31 32 38 28 30 Dealing with global climate change+ 26 25 29 *Before 2014, question asked about ‘illegal immigration.’ +Prior to 2016, question asked about ‘global warming.’ Source: Pew Research Center survey, conducted Jan. 4-9, 2017. November 10, 2018 www.pewresearch.org

Americans See Foreign Trade as an Opportunity Not a Threat Do you see foreign trade more as an opportunity for economic growth through increased U.S. exports or a threat to the economy from foreign imports? % Source: Gallup survey, conducted Feb. 1-5, 2017. 2017 November 10, 2018 www.pewresearch.org

Republicans Less Likely Than Democrats to See Trade as an Opportunity % saying they see foreign trade more as an opportunity for economic growth through increased U.S. exports than as a threat to the economy from foreign imports % Source: Gallup survey, conducted Feb. 1-5, 2017. November 10, 2018 www.pewresearch.org

American Support for NAFTA Has Grown in Recent Years Do you think NAFTA has been good for the U.S. or bad for the U.S.? % 48 46 Source: Gallup survey, conducted Feb. 1-5, 2017. November 10, 2018 www.pewresearch.org

But GOP Backing for NAFTA Has Declined NAFTA has been good for the U.S. % Source: Gallup survey, conducted Feb. 1-5, 2017. November 10, 2018 www.pewresearch.org

In Principle Americans Favor Other Free Trade Deals Free trade agreements between the U.S. and other countries have been a __ for the United States Source: Pew Research Center Survey, April 5-11, 2017. November 10, 2018 www.pewresearch.org

Women, Young People, Minorities Most Supportive of FTAs Free trade agreements between the U.S. and other countries have been a good thing for the United States Note: Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. Source: Pew Research Center Survey, April 5-11, 2017. November 10, 2018 www.pewresearch.org

Older White Men Are the Most Negative on Free Trade Deals Free trade agreements between the U.S. and other countries have been a __ for the United States   Good thing Bad thing % TOTAL Population 52 40 White men 46 47   18-34 63 32   35-49 49 41   50-64 35 55   65+ 34 58 Note: Whites include only those who are not Hispanic. Source: Pew Research Center Survey, April 5-11, 2017. November 10, 2018 www.pewresearch.org

And Americans Are Split on the Value of Involvement in the Global Economy When Reminded of the Costs Which statement comes closer to your view about U.S. involvement in the global economy? Source: Pew Research Center Survey, April 12-19, 2016. November 10, 2018 www.pewresearch.org

And Few Think Free Trade Deals Boost the Economy, Wages or Jobs Free trade agreements … Note: “Other” and “Don’t know” responses not shown. Source: Pew Research Center survey, May 12-18, 2015. November 10, 2018 www.pewresearch.org

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