Assessing a Combined Theories Approach to Climate Change Communication Ted Greenhalgh University of Nevada, Las Vegas

Why this study? Climate change is the greatest natural threat facing the world today To effectively counter climate change people will have to adopt new habits and technologies Other public outreach and engagement attempts have only had marginal results

Changing behavior Researchers and public health campaigns have been trying to change poor behavior for years Social psychology makes extensive use of the theory of planned behavior Communication campaigns make extensive use of fear appeals

Conceptual Model

Combined Approach Model TPB and EPPM form the core of model Addition of more normative belief variables to gain more understanding of norms effects Addition of more attitude variables to evaluate cognitive dissonance Extends both theories and uses them to evaluate a unique and important problem

Combined Model

Design Pretest survey, exposure to experiment message, post-test survey Lower carbon footprint message Controlled multi-factorial design Control group and 18 test groups: fear treatment (high or moderate), norms treatment (descriptive, social injunctive, personal injunctive), and 3 self-efficacy

First Hypothesis Lacking any motivational or mitigation information in their stories, the control group will have lower behavioral intent to adopt the innovations than the test groups. Measured using a one-tailed independent t-test of the two groups The two groups are significantly different (df=224, F=1.012, p≤.019)

Second Hypothesis Those individuals in the experimental groups who self-identify as having low environmental concern in the pretest section will have lower levels of adoption than other subjects. Measured by combining the 3 NEP pretest questions into a single variable and using it in ANOVA with posttest adoption variable.

Second Hypothesis ANOVA Results (df=12/224, F=64.931, p≤.000)

Third Hypothesis Those subjects with lower combined posttest attitude question scores will have lower levels of intent to adopt the innovations than other test subjects. Measured by combining the nine posttest attitude questions into a single variable and using it in a one-tailed independent t-test comparing adoption group to non-adopters.

Third Hypothesis (cont.) Found to be significantly different: (df=36, F=28.663, p≤.011). Adopters had a mean attitude score of 37.181 compared to non-adopters mean of 25.778. This indicates non-adopter rationalizing of decisions not to adopt innovation in the face of message information.

General Research Question How do pre-existing worldview attitudes towards the environment, science, government, religion, or conservatism affect willingness to adopt lower carbon innovations? Measure by using all pretest questions in regressions with the posttest adoption intent variable.

Question Beta Significance When I hear information from weather services I tend to trust it. .113 p≤.282 Humans must live in harmony with nature. .457 p≤.001*** I tend to be politically liberal. .167 p≤.068 When I get information from news outlets I tend to trust it. .179 p≤.266 People are abusing the environment. .581 p≤.000*** I tend to consider my religious convictions when I make decisions. .221 p≤.223 When I get information from scientists I tend to trust it. .373 p≤.011* Our understanding of climate science is so uncertain we should wait to act. -.298 p≤.026* When I get information from government reports I tend to trust it. -.248 p≤.201 I tend to be conservative on social issues. -.178 p≤.061 When I get information from religious leaders I tend to trust it. -.198 p≤.211 The balance of nature is delicate. .468 I tend to be conservative on fiscal matters. -.246 p≤.055 When I get information from environmentalists I tend to trust it. .238 p≤.137

Research Question (cont.) To reduce the number of pretest variables and explore how they are interrelated a varimax factor analysis was run using the pretest variables with the following loadings and assigned to new variables for testing.

Factor Analysis Component Question Factor Analysis Component Variable 1 2 3 4 When I hear information from weather services I tend to trust it. .324 .030 .575 .069 Trust Humans must live in harmony with nature. .769 .202 -.253 -.031 NEP I tend to be politically liberal. -.400 -.675 -.205 -.071 Conserv Skeptic When I get information from news outlets I tend to trust it. .192 -.020 .604 .258 People are abusing the environment. .634 -.180 -.358 .201 I tend to consider my religious convictions when I make decisions. -.156 .027 .019 .616 Religion When I get information from scientists I tend to trust it. -.169 .028 .177 Our understanding of climate science is so uncertain we should wait to act. -.324 .510 .137 .351 When I get information from government reports I tend to trust it. .145 .154 .511 -.017 I tend to be conservative on social issues. -.345 .637 .207 .180 When I get information from religious leaders I tend to trust it. .443 .460 .042 The balance of nature is delicate. .713 .221 -.047 .117 I tend to be conservative on fiscal matters. .271 .536 -.085 .358 When I get information from environmentalists I tend to trust it. .558 -.271

Research Question (cont.) Only two of the factors (NEP and conservative skepticism) were found to statistically predict the posttest intention to adopt variable in regression (adj r2=.466, p≤.001 and adj r2=.168, p≤.015, respectively). To better understand conservative skepticism, the top 30 scorers are shown.

Research Question (cont.) Race Sex Male Female Total African-American 1 Asian-American 2 Caucasian 16 4 20 Hispanic Mixed-Race 6 23 7 30

The Combined Model Analysis

Theory of Planned Behavior Analysis

Conclusion Climate change communication can benefit from fear appeals messages, although the optimum level of fear and self-efficacy are not certain. Evaluations of public understanding of complex issues are best done with tools like the combined model that account for pre-existing worldviews and attitudes.

Conclusion (cont.) More research needs to be done to address fear and self-efficacy in climate change messages. More research needs to be done using the combined model with random subject samples and different cases. More research needs to be done to reach people with high conservative skepticism.

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