The Commodity Market Fundamentals Forum 2018: Palm Oil A look Into Commodity Super-Cycle & Drivers Dr. Sathia Varqa Palm Oil Analytics, Singapore Mumbai 14th June 2018

Production Production of palm, soybeans, sunflower and rapeseed been good or is about to get better in 2018

Palm Oil Production

Palm Oil Production

Soybean Production

Canola Production

But… exports been dismal

Tariffs Displaced 462K tons of CPO & Olein imports

Why exports been dismal 2. High inventories – origin & destination countries 1. India imposed steep import tariffs on palm oil

Why exports been dismal 3. Lower palm olein discount to soybean oil 4. No significant increase in biodiesel despite CPO being cheaper than gasoil

CPO Prices

SBO Prices

How did prices do?

2018 –First 5 months Lackluster exports undermined palm market, leading to rise in inventories and fall in prices

2018-19 - Year ahead Will India import tariffs be revised ? 8 main challenges & opportunities Will India import tariffs be revised ? Will Indonesia push for higher biodiesel mandate ? Will Malaysia increase biodiesel mandate ? E.U ban on palm based biofuels by 2021 China – US trade ‘war’ plays out Labour market reforms in Malaysia Malaysian Ringgit under new government China E10 mandate by 2020

About Palm Oil Analytics Publishers of palm oil news, price and data Two market reports daily Hold over 30 years of historical prices – daily and monthly Subscribers all around the world Palm Oil Analytics group @sahia_varqa POAS <GO>

Palm Oil Analytics - Maps - Essential Palm Oil Statistics For more information: sathia.varqa@palmoilanalytics.com WeChat: sathia_varqa WhatsApp: +65 90016176

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