Sino-Russian Relations in the Arctic Dr. Elizabeth Wishnick, MSU and COlumbia.

Sino-Russian Cooperation in the ARctic Drivers Deepening Sino-Russian partnership since 2008 Effort to find ways to enhance economic ties and avoid regional competition Post-Ukraine sanctions limit Russian access to finance and technology China’s increased interest in the Arctic Agreements Joint statement on cooperation between Belt and Road Initiative and Eurasian Economic Union May 2015 and June 2018 agreement creating legal basis Polar Silk Road cooperation announced July 2017 Projects China Development Bank invests $12 billion, CNPC gets 20% stake and Silk Road Fund gets 9.9% stake in $27 billion Yamal LNG project Chinese Offshore Oil Engineering Co., Ltd.  (COOEC) to manufacture modules for liquefying the gas at the cost of $1.6 billion.  China’s Poly Group invests $5.5 billion to develop Archangelsk port and rail network

Constraints on Cooperation Identity: Russia has the longest Arctic coastline and is suspicious of China’s claim to be a “near-Arctic” state, while China needs cooperation with Russia to justify its role in the region. Sovereignty: China was obligated to recognize the sovereignty of Arctic states as a precondition for Arctic Council Observer status; but expects Arctic states to recognize the rights of non-Arctic states. Changing environment: As the Arctic ice diminishes, Russia lose its rationale under UNCLOS 234 to regulate the NSR as an ice-covered waterway in the interest of environmental protection, while China might seek increased access to resources. Economics: Russia enforces its control over the NSR by requiring an escort and charging fees which make the route less profitable for Chinese and other shippers; low commodity prices and high costs affect the level of interest by China and others in Russian projects. International Developments: Sanctions reduce Russian options for Arctic partners but also limit ability of some Chinese firms to invest.

Implications for the U.S. In the short term the U.S. will face deepening Sino-Russian economic and military cooperation in the Arctic, reflecting an overall strengthening of the relationship. Both Russia and China have an interest in diversifying their partnerships in the Arctic and there may be some areas of cooperation for each with the U.S., such as navigation safety, search and rescue, fisheries and environmental protection, and scientific research. Frayed relations with allies, neglect of our own Arctic infrastructure, inadequate investment in science, hostility to environmental protection, and disinterest in global governance mechanisms such as UNCLOS contribute to a weakening of the U.S. position in the Arctic. A security framework for the Arctic is needed to bring together Arctic states and interested partners along the lines of the ASEAN regional forum to address security problems that are likely to emerge, especially over sovereignty.

Thank you! ew124@columbia.edu